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Author Topic: It makes no sense, but I'm holding.  (Read 3145 times)
Technomage
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September 06, 2011, 11:42:16 AM
 #21

Good point by cbeast.

Here is a very recent IRC-log from just a few minutes ago, from the owner of Mt. Gox:

[14:23:25] <@free'MagicalTux> btw I see that most of the bitcoins we were watching (stolen coins) were sold today
[14:25:26] <@free'MagicalTux> TuxBlackEdo: no, stolen coins from other police reports
[14:25:38] <@free'MagicalTux> however we don't have enough proof to do anything
[14:25:43] <@free'MagicalTux> there is only reports from people

Timestamp is Finnish time. It's an interesting bit of information. Seems that thiefs have been accelerating the sell-off significantly.

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September 06, 2011, 11:44:23 AM
 #22

Well, you're a known doomsday-bear so I'm not surprised but I still thank you for the correction. Only a doomsday-bear would think that a below $6.50 price isn't a good buying opportunity. It might not be the perfect opportunity as the price can go lower but it's a good one. As a selling point it's already bad and if we go a bit lower then we reach the point where selling is moronic.
The price has already fallen 80% from the top, so assuming it's 98% certain it won't fall another 25% is wildly optimistic and naive. Bitcoin is backed by nothing, so there is no particular price point that can be said to be good or bad for buying or selling.
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September 06, 2011, 11:48:04 AM
 #23

Good point by cbeast.

Here is a very recent IRC-log from just a few minutes ago, from the owner of Mt. Gox:

[14:23:25] <@free'MagicalTux> btw I see that most of the bitcoins we were watching (stolen coins) were sold today
[14:25:26] <@free'MagicalTux> TuxBlackEdo: no, stolen coins from other police reports
[14:25:38] <@free'MagicalTux> however we don't have enough proof to do anything
[14:25:43] <@free'MagicalTux> there is only reports from people

Timestamp is Finnish time. It's an interesting bit of information. Seems that thiefs have been accelerating the sell-off significantly.

So the guy who is leading the one real exchange (the others are too small in comparison) is spreading trade-sensitive information?

Shady at best...

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September 06, 2011, 11:57:05 AM
 #24

Good point by cbeast.

Here is a very recent IRC-log from just a few minutes ago, from the owner of Mt. Gox:

[14:23:25] <@free'MagicalTux> btw I see that most of the bitcoins we were watching (stolen coins) were sold today
[14:25:26] <@free'MagicalTux> TuxBlackEdo: no, stolen coins from other police reports
[14:25:38] <@free'MagicalTux> however we don't have enough proof to do anything
[14:25:43] <@free'MagicalTux> there is only reports from people

Timestamp is Finnish time. It's an interesting bit of information. Seems that thiefs have been accelerating the sell-off significantly.

So the guy who is leading the one real exchange (the others are too small in comparison) is spreading trade-sensitive information?

Shady at best...

Yeah, that seems odd.  Also, I'm just going to go ahead and say that I'm in favor of requiring government issued identification at the exchanges.  I know a lot of people will hate me for that, but it would at least make it more difficult to convert stolen coins into cash and run off.  If you really want coins anonymously there would still be ways to get them.  Just not at the exchanges.
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September 06, 2011, 11:58:31 AM
 #25

Email came out in '71, was that a bad idea too because it took so long to catch on? It takes awhile for new technology to catch on. The public must be educated about bitcoin. I have been online since '83, but did not have WWW access in my region until 1994. It's not that the internet was a bad idea, it just took awhile for it to be available. Bitcoin is nowhere near ready for John Q. Public.

There's a fine line between education and spruiking.  The few people who know about bitcoins have heard you make money by running your computer (sounds like a complete scam) or that drug users love it (Silk Road).  Preaching about freedom from fiat currencies isn't going to catch on with the vast majority of people, and mentioning you run a program on your computer to make cash sounds laughable regardless of reality.

Bitcoin needs a new sales pitch.

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September 06, 2011, 11:59:48 AM
 #26

The price has already fallen 80% from the top, so assuming it's 98% certain it won't fall another 25% is wildly optimistic and naive. Bitcoin is backed by nothing, so there is no particular price point that can be said to be good or bad for buying or selling.
Well, this is the speculation forum. I can speculate however I wish. To me a price below $6.50 is very low and price below $5 is so low that I can't see how anyone in their right mind would sell at that point.

There are some reasons why I think this way, first of all that kind of price point will be negative return for most miners and I think a majority of them still have faith that the price will be at least higher, if not much higher, at some point. Then there is simply the realities of Bitcoin itself which is still just starting and still just as potential and just as working as ever, nothing has changed for the worse.

Also it does matter how low the price feels compared to the prices we've had in the recent months. $5 is low, very low. That means a good buying opportunity and a bad selling point for everyone else but panic sellers. Or people who have lost their faith completely, which I call doomsday-bears. Some of those people might just be manipulating the public opinion to buy lower, however.

And the fact that price has fallen 80% from the top is irrelevant. I could also say that it has risen by a significant factor from 6 months back. The long-term price is still doing okay, one of those indicators, an important one, is at around $6.3 right now. This is one of the reasons I don't believe in a stable price much lower than that, a lower price than that would require a fundamental problem with Bitcoin itself which doesn't exist.

I strongly believe that most of this crash and the downward trend that's going on currently is simple mass psychology. More pessimism and more reports of downward trends, well, what do you expect to get from that. It also has other effects such as people not focusing on what's important such as building the services and infra that Bitcoin needs, they worry too much about the stability of the price which is not very relevant.

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September 06, 2011, 12:01:12 PM
 #27

There's a fine line between education and spruiking.  The few people who know about bitcoins have heard you make money by running your computer (sounds like a complete scam) or that drug users love it (Silk Road).  Preaching about freedom from fiat currencies isn't going to catch on with the vast majority of people, and mentioning you run a program on your computer to make cash sounds laughable regardless of reality.

Bitcoin needs a new sales pitch.
+1

This is something we should be focusing on. There needs to be more incentives for people to try out Bitcoin.

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September 06, 2011, 12:04:32 PM
 #28

There's a fine line between education and spruiking.  The few people who know about bitcoins have heard you make money by running your computer (sounds like a complete scam) or that drug users love it (Silk Road).  Preaching about freedom from fiat currencies isn't going to catch on with the vast majority of people, and mentioning you run a program on your computer to make cash sounds laughable regardless of reality.

Bitcoin needs a new sales pitch.
+1

This is something we should be focusing on. There needs to be more incentives for people to try out Bitcoin.

Seems like some people are finally realizing that what nerds think is such a great idea (anonymous, unregulated, cryptocurrency) is of very little value to the other 98% of all people.

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September 06, 2011, 12:10:53 PM
 #29

Seems like some people are finally realizing that what nerds think is such a great idea (anonymous, unregulated, cryptocurrency) is of very little value to the other 98% of all people.
This is true. But Bitcoin has possibilities that will appeal to a much bigger audience, it's just a matter of developing the services and tools further. I'm already seeing big things starting from Bitcoin ATM's, sophisticated merchant services, physical Bitcoin bills and money in QR-tags and NFC-tags etc. And from NFC-tags you can even transfer the coins back and forth.

And all of this much cheaper and much faster than the banking system, for instance. There is so much potential and so much to do. The whole thing is still so small, we haven't even reached all the nerds yet.

I'm starting to think I need to start spending more time on other forums instead of the speculation forum. The only reason I spend time here is because I think there has been excessive doomsday-talk recently which is just contributing to the mass psychology effect I already talked about.

The problem is the real bulls and Bitcoin enthusiasts don't care much about the price because it's not relevant, that's why they don't post much in this forum. This doesn't apply to anyone who has a pessimistic standpoint because the price is the only thing right now to be pessimistic about as far as Bitcoin goes. That's why the ratio of bulls and bears is a bit skewed on this particular forum.

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September 06, 2011, 12:15:29 PM
 #30

Good point by cbeast.

Here is a very recent IRC-log from just a few minutes ago, from the owner of Mt. Gox:

[14:23:25] <@free'MagicalTux> btw I see that most of the bitcoins we were watching (stolen coins) were sold today

How do they know the bitcoins were stolen?  If they have reports from users and can trace the keychain then it seems like decent enough evidence to freeze the accounts until ownership can be verified.  PayPal freezes accounts for a lot less.

How many allegedly stolen bitcoins are being dumped onto the market right now?  Has the selling finished or are we looking at tens of thousands still waiting to be processed?

Which laws regarding stolen goods and money laundering does MtGox have to follow, and in which jurisdiction?

As others have pointed out, MtGox has selectively released very sensitive market information.  This is unethical at best.  If what MtGox says is true, speculators should be lining up to buy en mass as soon as the sell off finishes.

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September 06, 2011, 12:16:21 PM
 #31

Seems like some people are finally realizing that what nerds think is such a great idea (anonymous, unregulated, cryptocurrency) is of very little value to the other 98% of all people.

Sure, the average person doesn't care about those characteristics when it's just theory.  What they need are practical reasons for why those things can be good for them. For example, it can enable them to buy things electronically that they don't want to show up on their credit card bill (e.g. porn, as well as other potentially embarrassing things), and, two, it can allow people a pseudonymous way to bet on sports (in the U.S.).  Drug purchases have been another application. Anonymous donations to certain causes has been another application. People want to be able to handle such things in cash, and bitcoin can make that happen.
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September 06, 2011, 12:16:52 PM
 #32

And the fact that price has fallen 80% from the top is irrelevant.
But your *feelings* about what the price should be are? People were arguing in pretty much exactly the same way about the $10 "limit" when the price had fallen to $12-13. Good luck with your investments, you'll need it.

Regarding the mining cost it truly is irrelevant. The same number of coins will be mined no matter how many is mining. The hashing power will just scale down with the price.
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September 06, 2011, 12:31:26 PM
 #33

But your *feelings* about what the price should be are? People were arguing in pretty much exactly the same way about the $10 "limit" when the price had fallen to $12-13. Good luck with your investments, you'll need it.
My point there was that it's more relevant to talk about the massive rise in price and the size of Bitcoin economy from 6 months back. Even though the price has dropped significantly from the top, the economy has not contracted in a similar way. The economy in fact is still doing well and is massively larger than 6 months ago. Any talk of the price going back to the levels of 6 months ago are absolutely ridiculous.

This is because the interest in Bitcoin has not gone down in the same ratio as the price, not even close. The price top was mostly a massive bubble but the growth of services and users is not.

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Regarding the mining cost it truly is irrelevant. The same number of coins will be mined no matter how many is mining. The hashing power will just scale down with the price.
I don't think it's irrelevant. Miners will change their cashout-plan based on the price, at least many do. It's hard to say how a low price will affect miners, will many just quit and sell everything regardless of negative return? Don't know.

My mining operation is basically as electricity-efficient as any miner can have so I'm the last man standing as far as mining goes. From my perspective it's smart to just hold everything. I'd rather just hold and spend coins at this point, not sell them. I'm probably not selling a single mined coin until the price goes higher.

We're also reaching the point very soon now that the miners who started a few months ago when the big boom happened are starting to have their mining rigs payed back, at least with the resale value of hardware included. This might change the cashout-plans of some miners if they happen to support Bitcoin in general.

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September 06, 2011, 12:54:48 PM
 #34

Seems like some people are finally realizing that what nerds think is such a great idea (anonymous, unregulated, cryptocurrency) is of very little value to the other 98% of all people.

Sure, the average person doesn't care about those characteristics when it's just theory.  What they need are practical reasons for why those things can be good for them. For example, it can enable them to buy things electronically that they don't want to show up on their credit card bill (e.g. porn, as well as other potentially embarrassing things),

Ok wow, you just gave a good reason for another... 0.05% of the masses. All the normal people just watch porn together with their partner and don't need to hide it.
By the way, in most developed countries you can open a bank account, set it to "no paper bills, only electronic", deposit cash on it and use that account to buy a secret gift for your partner without her seeing a bill.

Also, most sane women would rather see her partner buy some porn, than see a bill that shows a deposit to some weird exchange after which her partner rambles a bit about cryptocurrency, deregulation, decentralized currency and so on.

Quote
and, two, it can allow people a pseudonymous way to bet on sports (in the U.S.).  Drug purchases have been another application. Anonymous donations to certain causes has been another application. People want to be able to handle such things in cash, and bitcoin can make that happen.

Ok, you got another 0.1% of all people. Congrats, you have now managed to sell bitcoin to 2% nerds, 0.05% freak-porn-buyers-must-hide-from-wife and 0.1% of people who want to do illegal stuff anonymously. At the same time, you have ensured that the other 97% of people want NOTHING to do with something that is only used by freak-porn-watchers, drug-addicts, gambling-addicts and illegal activities.

My god, if that is your sales pitch, bitcoin is so doomed Sad

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September 06, 2011, 01:12:41 PM
 #35

If you think that it is going down and then back at $15, it really doesn't make any sense to hold Wink If you sell now and buy when the price is just $0.1 lower you will make more profit.
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September 06, 2011, 01:14:32 PM
 #36

Also, most sane women would rather see her partner buy some porn, than see a bill that shows a deposit to some weird exchange after which her partner rambles a bit about cryptocurrency, deregulation, decentralized currency and so on.

You don't have to ramble about anything, just say you made a deposit to your e-wallet or something to make some purchases. The nerdy stuff isn't what's going to make it catch on, right?

Ok, you got another 0.1% of all people. Congrats, you have now managed to sell bitcoin to 2% nerds, 0.05% freak-porn-buyers-must-hide-from-wife and 0.1% of people who want to do illegal stuff anonymously.

How'd you come up with those numbers?

But seriously, I was just mentioning a few examples. I'm sure there are others. My examples weren't meant to become the end all, be all rationale.  I do think you grossly underestimate the potential application to sports betting, just for one.

Quote
At the same time, you have ensured that the other 97% of people want NOTHING to do with something that is only used by freak-porn-watchers, drug-addicts, gambling-addicts and illegal activities.

I forgot how puritanical the general public is, how they chalk up all porn and drug use with freakiness and addiction.
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September 06, 2011, 01:40:08 PM
 #37

Also, most sane women would rather see her partner buy some porn, than see a bill that shows a deposit to some weird exchange after which her partner rambles a bit about cryptocurrency, deregulation, decentralized currency and so on.

You don't have to ramble about anything, just say you made a deposit to your e-wallet or something to make some purchases. The nerdy stuff isn't what's going to make it catch on, right?

Pornsites and xxx-toy shops etc usually have a non-pron related name that will appear on your CC bill. So if it's so easy to talk around it, then why do you need bitcoins in the first place.

Quote

How'd you come up with those numbers?

A guess. Just like your guess that it's apparently a significant number of people who are interested in that.

Quote
But seriously, I was just mentioning a few examples. I'm sure there are others.

If you're so sure, go ahead and name a few. Because I think there's not so many. Which is one of the reasons I believe bitcoin is destined to fail.

 
Quote
I do think you grossly underestimate the potential application to sports betting, just for one.

I think you grossly overestimate the amount of people that really want to use something like bitcoin for betting.

Quote
I forgot how puritanical the general public is, how they chalk up all porn and drug use with freakiness and addiction.

I guess you missed all the articles on the net about bitcoin and how they all mention drugs and illegal activities. That is how the public opinion works.

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September 06, 2011, 01:40:39 PM
 #38

Ok, you got another 0.1% of all people. Congrats, you have now managed to sell bitcoin to 2% nerds, 0.05% freak-porn-buyers-must-hide-from-wife and 0.1% of people who want to do illegal stuff anonymously. At the same time, you have ensured that the other 97% of people want NOTHING to do with something that is only used by freak-porn-watchers, drug-addicts, gambling-addicts and illegal activities.

My god, if that is your sales pitch, bitcoin is so doomed Sad
What you don't seem to understand is that the scenario you painted is not doom, it's in fact a large success. Even as a successful niche currency the price of one Bitcoin will be significantly higher than the current price, this is simple mathematics. If it somehow manages to find new areas which I think is possible, then the price will be in a range we haven't even seen yet.

I'd be quite happy if it manages to find a place as a successful niche currency which seems likely in my opinion, it's already a big success at that point. It's not necessary for Bitcoin to take over the world to be successful.

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September 06, 2011, 01:45:56 PM
 #39


Well, this is the speculation forum. I can speculate however I wish. To me a price below $6.50 is very low and price below $5 is so low that I can't see how anyone in their right mind would sell at that point.


I agree!  Prices this low are not at all a value trap. Please buy hard, then hold & pray.
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September 06, 2011, 03:29:47 PM
 #40

Bitcoin needs a new sales pitch.

It's tax-free.
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