Vague similarities...

[MAbtc]

How many newly mined coins are being sold off exchange? Prove to me that it is not a substantial amount and I will give your theory more credibility.

Since this clearly can't be proven either way, where does that leave us?

[windjc]

How many newly mined coins are being sold off exchange? Prove to me that it is not a substantial amount and I will give your theory more credibility.

Since this clearly can't be proven either way, where does that leave us?

Guessing.

I just think that the argument about invisible rising selling power is no less possible than invisible buying power.

[N12]

I'm aware of the possibility, and as I've said before, it's impossible to prove or disprove this.

However, mining is fairly distributed and, because of the ASIC boom, the distribution probably changed from the previous GPU one. I'm not sure how hedge funds would go on about contacting miners due to that distribution, or vice versa. There is no real futures market I'm aware of. If you want to make that case, then I think it's more likely for hedge funds to set up mining operations of their own; purely for accumulation.

In any case, there will be a large portion of the daily mined coins that goes to miners who have no channels to reliably sell Bitcoins other than exchanges – that is my speculation and I believe it's a reasonable and educated guess based on the things I listed here and the previous post.

Right now, supply on exchanges is mildly increasing and if you add up multiple exchanges together, it is not all that low. If there is accumulation, then the accumulators either ran out of powder or they don't wish to accumulate anymore. Of course, this is all too easily visible based on SecondMarket's change in buying behavior alone: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

[windjc]

I'm aware of the possibility, and as I've said before, it's impossible to prove or disprove this.

However, mining is fairly distributed and, because of the ASIC boom, the distribution probably changed from the previous GPU one. I'm not sure how hedge funds would go on about contacting miners due to that distribution, or vice versa. There is no real futures market I'm aware of. If you want to make that case, then I think it's more likely for hedge funds to set up mining operations of their own; purely for accumulation.

In any case, there will be a large portion of the daily mined coins that goes to miners who have no channels to reliably sell Bitcoins other than exchanges – that is my speculation and I believe it's a reasonable and educated guess based on the things I listed here and the previous post.

Right now, supply on exchanges is mildly increasing and if you add up multiple exchanges together, it is not all that low. If there is accumulation, then the accumulators either ran out of powder or they don't wish to accumulate anymore.

Ok. As long as we can agree that we are all just speculating. However, I would argue that miners may not be a dumb as you make them out to be - and by dumb I mean not networking within their ranks to understand what channels exist outside of exchanges. For instance, if I was a decently sized miner, I'd love to procure as many options for selling as possible.  I would also be interested in price stability.

For instance, I doubt Loaded is the only broker operating in the world, nor do I believe is the only large broker operating in the world. Remember, ALOT of people want anonymity and now exchanges no longer offer that. Have you considered how BIG this reality may actually be? I mean there is a reason that trillions are in offshore accounts, right?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Though this consolidation is more like a triangle, so it seems more likely to break up with a target of around $1120 before breaking back down

Interesting to hear this from you. Regarding this triangle, what gives you the impression of a bullish bias?

First things first...
Why would you phrase this like this? Do I come off as a permabear? Because I assure you I am not. I am just objective in my analysis. A realist, if you will.

On to my reasoning...
Because there is a slightly bullish feel amongst (what I believe to be) a greater bearish mid-term, I do believe it is more likely to rise out of the triangle. While there is the possibility to break down (shown in fig.1) there are other reasons to break up (the rest)


Fig.1

Illustrated here, you have two outcomes. One where a typical 4th wave triangle (EM, I don't want to hear any shit ) pattern breaks up, and out, (labeled in cyan) and is the whole consolidation for wave-4. The other would be a larger ABC where the triangle is the B-wave (labeled in red).

The target I mentioned is only an estimate using the height of the a-wave of the triangle. This is a typical target for triangles, though it can fall short and it can rise above it, but it gives you an idea where to look for exit points. Even with this uncertainty, you have clear stop points if it goes against your trade. Since nothing is perfect in EW or TA, having well defined stops are a great way to minimize risk. You would set a stop-sell just below the lower trend line, or a stop buy above the upper trend line.

Enough about the usage.

This all plays into a larger picture that is a real possibility. The chance of a larger 4th wave triangle on the Daily-Weekly time frame (fig.2). A breakout would complete the triangle B-wave before reversing back down in the C.


Fig.2

[MAbtc]

First things first...
Why would you phrase this like this? Do I come off as a permabear? Because I assure you I am not.

Of course you don't. I said this because 10 days ago, you wrote, "This rise was not of the bullish type!" I was not sure what time frames we were talking about here.

On to my reasoning...

Much appreciated, thank you.

[johnyj]

Situation are much more different now, miners do not need to cash out on exchanges, they could sell the coins to just their friends dues to much higher public interest, and they can even purchase something from overstock.com

The only thing worries me is that huge trading volume on some exchanges in china, are those real volume or just artificially made by exchanges? If they are real, it seems the speculators in china indeed put large amount of capital in the game and they might create heavy volatility in bitcoin. It feels like all the money printed by FED ends up in china and used to pump and dump the bitcoin

[HairyMaclairy]

Zero fees + bots = huge volumes even if it's just the same 20 btc going round and round in circles.

Daily volume under these circumstances is pretty meaningless. 

[oda.krell]

I'm aware of the possibility, and as I've said before, it's impossible to prove or disprove this.

However, mining is fairly distributed and, because of the ASIC boom, the distribution probably changed from the previous GPU one. I'm not sure how hedge funds would go on about contacting miners due to that distribution, or vice versa. There is no real futures market I'm aware of. If you want to make that case, then I think it's more likely for hedge funds to set up mining operations of their own; purely for accumulation.

In any case, there will be a large portion of the daily mined coins that goes to miners who have no channels to reliably sell Bitcoins other than exchanges – that is my speculation and I believe it's a reasonable and educated guess based on the things I listed here and the previous post.

Right now, supply on exchanges is mildly increasing and if you add up multiple exchanges together, it is not all that low. If there is accumulation, then the accumulators either ran out of powder or they don't wish to accumulate anymore. Of course, this is all too easily visible based on SecondMarket's change in buying behavior alone: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

I personally believe a substantial number of coins (but still less than 50% of total volume) are sold off-exchange these days, but I admit, there is no way for me to prove my claims either. My main reason for this belief being that there is enough evidence by now that big (or at least: bigger than hobbyist's) money is entering the market, but at the same time, I have a hard time imagining them wiring a few millions over to Japan or Slovenia.

Here's one smaller observation that perhaps matters in this context: If I look at the order book at all, I only consider relative bid/ask ratios, and their change over time, to be half-way reliable. But isolating for a moment the raw ask sum over time, there is, I believe, a pretty clear downwards trend visible over the past years, not easily accounted for by the reward halving alone. Whether that means more holding or more OTC is of course just anybody's guess again. 'Holding' would be bullish across all time frames, while 'OTC' would introduce an element of uncertainty ("maybe they're selling way below mtgox price?!") that could, at least short/medium term, be quite bearish.