But you don't know that...we could get 50 new coins in the supply every 10 minutes, or we could get 0...it depends on whether the miner contributes those coins to the supply or whether they keep them. If the miner keeps them, no new money is required to keep the price where it is (again, all other things being equal).
They have to go somewhere eventually unless they are destroyed.... IE: Poland exchange ... they could sit on his desktop for 20 years, but eventually they will go somewhere.. hence circling back to where we are now.. delayed.. but 20 years from now those 50 coins will show up and we have to account for it. plus we are stuck in a negative cycle. See if the value is increasing people hold on to them thinking they will be worth more.. if the value is decreasing people dump them assuming they will be worth less tomorrow... currently it's decreasing hence the "hording" isn't happening ... but dumping.. that's happening big time. Would you hold unto silver if the price was decreasing every day by 20% ? most likely you'd dump it hoping to buy it cheaper later.. this is what is happening.. I suspect most of these coins are being dumped at any price ... in 2013 these people will be kicking themselves in the ass... but they have an electric bill to pay now.
that means 300 dollars has to enter the economy every 10 minutes.. or 300 dollars worth of services added to the economy... regardless of how you spread it, 300 dollars every 10 minutes has to be added in value to the bitcoin economy.
I just mined a block and I'm keeping the bitcoins...tell me, where do any new dollars or services come into play?
keeping it and passing it down for 20 generations, eventually they come into play.. or as I noted before it's possible they could be destroyed... which at that point it would be as if they were never created.
What generally happens is the miner gets a 2000 dollar electric bill, and sells his coins to pay it... every single month.
The point I am trying to make is that there is a reason those coins are made.. either to be spent.. horded.. whatever... but they are generated for a purpose... most likely a financial reward.. or to be used in commerce.. other than somone deleting their wallet.dat or harddrive failure those coins will eventually come into play.. or at least that's how they are designed... why else give a 50 coin reward?
Trust me the bitcoin algorithm is designed to accept an increase of 50 coins every 10 minutes... the expansion rate should match that ... Satoshi assumed that it would grow at X rate for 1 year.. Y rate for year 2 .. Z rate for year 3
The problem is that we hit growth of year 3 during year 2 ... hence the problem...
the adoption rate DIDN'T keep up with the inflation rate.... now it's correctable.. we just need 1.5 million new dollars entering the market (or equal to in services and demand) ..
This sounds like alot of money... but it's the price of 1/2 a Palm Beach Florida house... it's not that much money in the grand scheme of things.... that would keep the price stable... OR we could ride it out with a decreasing price until 2013 when the miners get half as much.. new money is entering the system.. just not enough of it to keep the price stable at 50 per block... but most likely enough to keep it stable (or increasing) at 25 per block ...