As bitcoin plunges, mega-bull Tom Lee stands by his $25,000 target

[eminemcookie]

An ATH high this year really seems out of the question now to my mind. In any market confidence always evaporates much more quickly than it returns and so any recovery is likely to take a lot longer than the 4 months or so that we've had of negativity. Even if the recovery started as of today I don't see the price returning to $20k until the earliest of mid 2019.

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[BitcoinNewbie15]

An ATH high this year really seems out of the question now to my mind. In any market confidence always evaporates much more quickly than it returns and so any recovery is likely to take a lot longer than the 4 months or so that we've had of negativity. Even if the recovery started as of today I don't see the price returning to $20k until the earliest of mid 2019.

This year shouldn't be different than any other bubble. I do expect Bitcoin to go through a long bear market, similar to 2014 and beyond. However, a new variable is at play this time around. A significant amount of new people have purchased and now own BTC, and nearly everyone knows about it. I seriously am curious what the effects of this will be in the long term.

I do fear that this overexposure and quick run up may force us into having a long-term bearish market, again, like the 2014 one. An ATH by the end of the year is overly optimistic, IMO. What I I'm thinking is we will hit a new ATH 6 months to 1 year after the halvening.

[b3j0]

does he still stand upright with his prediction?
currently the bitcoin price plummets below $ 7k. I salute with his stance, but reality says another.

[Wind_FURY]

I think Tom Lee is the reason why bitcoin won't go up. Everytime he shows up and makes predictions, it affect the whole market in a negative way. His predictions does the opposite. I'm now worried on the year-end price of btc because of his predictions.

I got it! He is the real life Kwukduck! Hahaha! But what he does in his real life, and its effect on the price of Bitcoin is the opposite of what he does in the forum.

[eminemcookie]

An ATH high this year really seems out of the question now to my mind. In any market confidence always evaporates much more quickly than it returns and so any recovery is likely to take a lot longer than the 4 months or so that we've had of negativity. Even if the recovery started as of today I don't see the price returning to $20k until the earliest of mid 2019.

This year shouldn't be different than any other bubble. I do expect Bitcoin to go through a long bear market, similar to 2014 and beyond. However, a new variable is at play this time around. A significant amount of new people have purchased and now own BTC, and nearly everyone knows about it. I seriously am curious what the effects of this will be in the long term.

I do fear that this overexposure and quick run up may force us into having a long-term bearish market, again, like the 2014 one. An ATH by the end of the year is overly optimistic, IMO. What I I'm thinking is we will hit a new ATH 6 months to 1 year after the halvening.

The next halving isn't for around 2 years which if the ATH comes 6 months to 1 year after that would be 3-3.5 years between ATHs. It seems like a stretch that the bear market will go this long that time around given what you said about the market being different this time around because of the new money and interest in to bitcoin. In 2014 the bear market went 3 years also, I'd be surprised if it's more than 2 years this time around between ATHs but I could easily be proven wrong.

[Pursuer]

An ATH high this year really seems out of the question now to my mind. In any market confidence always evaporates much more quickly than it returns and so any recovery is likely to take a lot longer than the 4 months or so that we've had of negativity. Even if the recovery started as of today I don't see the price returning to $20k until the earliest of mid 2019.

This year shouldn't be different than any other bubble. I do expect Bitcoin to go through a long bear market, similar to 2014 and beyond. However, a new variable is at play this time around. A significant amount of new people have purchased and now own BTC, and nearly everyone knows about it. I seriously am curious what the effects of this will be in the long term.

I do fear that this overexposure and quick run up may force us into having a long-term bearish market, again, like the 2014 one. An ATH by the end of the year is overly optimistic, IMO. What I I'm thinking is we will hit a new ATH 6 months to 1 year after the halvening.

The next halving isn't for around 2 years which if the ATH comes 6 months to 1 year after that would be 3-3.5 years between ATHs. It seems like a stretch that the bear market will go this long that time around given what you said about the market being different this time around because of the new money and interest in to bitcoin. In 2014 the bear market went 3 years also, I'd be surprised if it's more than 2 years this time around between ATHs but I could easily be proven wrong.

the funny thing is, technically the bear market that you are talking about didn't last that long either
it was one of the long ones but technically it was only 1 year or 13 months. it started from the ATH on 2013-12 and ended with the bottom at 2015-1. from that date price was rising normally and in less than 6 months it grew 100% from $150 bottom to $300 on 2015-6 and to $500 before the year ended. by the end of 2 years (which you are claim to be the bear market) price had grown more than 630% to $1100+

and the funnier part is that the previous bubbles which ended with similar bear markets were a lot shorter than this one. the 2014 bear market was long only because we lost the biggest exchange in history of bitcoin: Mt Gox which controlled 85% of the volume. if they didn't scam us then the bear market might have ended after 3-6 months like the previous ones.

[followmenot]

I am quite sure these type of investors love to talk about long term expectations and they won't change their arguments in 1 week down trends.. So bitcoin may go elsewhere, anywhere; above 20000 will happen possibly right before next halving..

[BitcoinNewbie15]

I am quite sure these type of investors love to talk about long term expectations and they won't change their arguments in 1 week down trends.. So bitcoin may go elsewhere, anywhere; above 20000 will happen possibly right before next halving..

Yes, investors like Tom Lee, Tim Draper, and Max Keiser are all long-term investors, a small dip in the price is nothing. the price tomorrow doesn't matter, its the price in a few years is what matters. As for the block halving, I don't think Bitcoin will reach an ATH before it happens. It is likely to happen 6-12 months after the Halving as the market reacts to the half as many BTC that miners put up for sale. Historically this has been the case for the prior halvings.

[manchester93]

Good old perma-bulls...

[eminemcookie]

the funny thing is, technically the bear market that you are talking about didn't last that long either
it was one of the long ones but technically it was only 1 year or 13 months. it started from the ATH on 2013-12 and ended with the bottom at 2015-1. from that date price was rising normally and in less than 6 months it grew 100% from $150 bottom to $300 on 2015-6 and to $500 before the year ended. by the end of 2 years (which you are claim to be the bear market) price had grown more than 630% to $1100+

and the funnier part is that the previous bubbles which ended with similar bear markets were a lot shorter than this one. the 2014 bear market was long only because we lost the biggest exchange in history of bitcoin: Mt Gox which controlled 85% of the volume. if they didn't scam us then the bear market might have ended after 3-6 months like the previous ones.

You're right in saying that, I didn't mean to write in such a way as to suggest that the price was falling for 3 or so years, but that there was that long between the ATHs. If we were to follow closely to 2014 it would suggest a price of around $3000 before a bottom is reached which is still quite a significant decrease from where we are now. As you mentioned 2014 was a unique set of circumstances with Mt. Gox and that's why I can't see that it would be the same this time around. The 6k bottom has stayed strong on 2 previous occasions so let's see what happens this time around. We are now moving towards a 6 month bear market so that could suggest a reversal is near but there's always great risk in reading too much in to what happened in the past.

[talkbitcoin]

history suggests that these types of predictions that are made at the peak of the enthusiasm in the market would never happen.
for those who love comparing this to 2013 :
back when it was rising to $1200 and things were crazy there were similar "perma bulls" calling for $10k in a short time span.
the similarity between today and 2013 stops there though...

[romero121]

People have been predicting to experience the price increase by the end of the year or by the later part of the upcoming year. Some has come up with the predictions that the next ath can be experienced only after the next halving which is scheduled to happen by the later part of the year 2020. In this regard we're unable to make a big decision on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for the years benefiting.

[bbc.reporter]

News update! Tom Lee is very much alive and ok, and he is still very bullish. But $5000 less bullish. He cut his bitcoin price target by 20% to over $20,000. I did not know that fund managers can be so flexible and adaptable hehe.



Fundstrat Global Advisors’ price target for Bitcoin was updated to “over $20,000 by the end of the year”, according to Tom Lee, founder and head strategist of the equity research house. While bullish and predicting a turn of events within the next six months, Lee’s forecast is still a cut of about 20% on the previous price target, estimated at $25,000.

Read in full https://insidebitcoins.com/news/fundstrats-tom-lee-cuts-bitcoin-price-target-by-20-to-over-20000/149718

[bbc.reporter]

The bitcoin news media and the mainstream news media are very confusing. First they release Tom Lee cuts prediction to $20,000. 1 hour later I read news updates that said Tom Lee reduces prediction to $22,000. Another 1 hour later I read another update saying Tom Lee predicts the same $25,000 by end of year.

Is Tom Lee ok?

[Kingofbitcoin12345]

@bbc.reporter thanks for the update.. Can I ask if Tom lee is a man?? because with that attitude only woman can change her mind multiple times.. Nevertheless,, I’m good that he is positive with his predictions,, but I’m not saying I trust this man or consider his speculation for my investment decision..

Is Tom Lee ok?

For sure his not ok and media is using him to prove a point that bitcoin is pure speculation from big names or manipulative..

[thecodebear]

An ATH high this year really seems out of the question now to my mind. In any market confidence always evaporates much more quickly than it returns and so any recovery is likely to take a lot longer than the 4 months or so that we've had of negativity. Even if the recovery started as of today I don't see the price returning to $20k until the earliest of mid 2019.

Yes I agree completely. There isn't gonna suddenly be a crazy bull run by december while we are still at the bottom of the market in July. Turning around from a serious bear market takes time. The next 12 months will be Bitcoin turning around and moving back up to the ATH. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin hits $20k next summer and then initiates the next boom, but it's not gonna happen this year. My guess for the end of this year is probably $10k. From this summer onward we'll probably technically be in a bull market as the price will in general probably be rising for the next 18 months or so, but its gonna be slow until hype gets crazy again and it'll probably be a year until that happens again.

[Pursuer]

The bitcoin news media and the mainstream news media are very confusing. First they release Tom Lee cuts prediction to $20,000. 1 hour later I read news updates that said Tom Lee reduces prediction to $22,000. Another 1 hour later I read another update saying Tom Lee predicts the same $25,000 by end of year.

Is Tom Lee ok?

you can never trust the media when it comes to bitcoin!
for all we know Tom Lee has never even made any of these comments and they are making it up. at least that is always my first assumption when I read any news on the internet regarding bitcoin.
it is like that Apple guy (Steve Wozniak?) one day we read he has dumped all his coins and says bitcoin is shit the other day we read he is praising bitcoin and has a lot of bitcoin....

[bbc.reporter]

Tom Lee was very happy to present another one of his expert technical analysis in CNBC after bitcoin broke $7000. There was also a poll in Twitter from CNBC that asked if bitcoin will break $7000. 72% voted no. The same view on bitcoin's future performance that we have in the forum, I reckon.



30% below 200 day moving average is lowest for bitcoin. It happened on 2011, 2016 and on 2018.

Watch Tom Lee https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/07/17/bitcoins-breakout-cryptocurrency-tom-lee.html

[bbc.reporter]

Funny question, but serious. It will be September in less than 2 weeks from now, if someone was to ask Tom Lee if his $25,000 target on December is still possible, what would his answer be? hehehe

[pooya87]

Funny question, but serious. It will be September in less than 2 weeks from now, if someone was to ask Tom Lee if his $25,000 target on December is still possible, what would his answer be? hehehe

he didn't really change his ridiculous prediction when the bear market started and it became clear that the big rise of 2017 has come to an end, so i don't think he is going to change it now either. if he wanted to do it then he would have made a more reasonable one like reaching $15k or something like that by the end of the year