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May 23, 2018, 09:04:55 PM |
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Low volume node being filled from short squeeze last month, intermediate support holding for now with a strong zone below at $7.2-6.9k.
Resistances
After falling through the $7.9-7.7k level of support indicated by previous support/resistance and the .618 fib level, this zone will now become resistance on the way back upwards. A move above $7.9k would set us up to challenge the $8.2-8.1k level.
Supports
At the moment we are sitting at an intermediate support created by April 3rd highs at $7.5-7.4k. Additional support at this level comes from the confluence of the weekly 50 MA. Below $7.4k is a stronger level of support created by the .786 fib and previous horizontal price action at $7.2-7.0k
Moving Averages
Zooming out to get a better perspective on the larger picture, the weekly 50 MA is currently moving upwards towards price at the $7.5k level. We have yet to break below this level throughout the "bear market," and it has served as a good level of support in the past.
Ichimoku Cloud
The 1D kijun has been decisively broken by price, creating a bearish environment via cloud metrics, suggesting further downside. Should the 1D tenkan (blue line) cross back below the kijun (red line) that would be a short signal for cloud traders.
Traditional Chart Patterns
Symmetrical Triangle: macro consolidation pattern is forming in the shape of a symmetrical triangle. This is created by two converging trend lines, one which acts as support and the other resistance, diminishing the range of price movement and trades. Volume drying up supports this pattern and shows there are less trades being taken within this range. Eventually the supply/demand balance will break above or below the converging trendlines, resulting in a breakout to the upside if the demand is larger than supply, and vice versa if the supply outweighs demand.
Conclusion
The strong downward move today has mimicked the strong up move we saw last month, which left a void that is currently being filled.
Although indicators are showing signs of bear, it is not very common you have the opportunity to buy Bitcoin below the 200 MA and in a bearish cloud environment. We say this to reiterate the fact that this should be seen as an opportunity.
Institutional money (i.e. Nasdaq creating a crypto trading platform, Poloniex being bought) would not waste their time with crypto if the volatility were to dry up, and at the moment the volatility's least path of resistance is upwards over the long term.
The next important level of support comes in the range from $6.9-7.2k, a bounce there would confirm the symmetrical triangle and give bulls a chance to break that pattern to the upside.
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