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Author Topic: Extreme bitcoin price fluctuation?  (Read 4491 times)
payb.tc
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September 08, 2011, 04:04:59 PM
 #21

I would certainly like to download the whole chain even if it's a bit big because I do have HD space.

likewise, even for a 3TB block chain i'd be happy to put up $159 for a new hdd to store it.

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September 08, 2011, 04:24:12 PM
 #22

and the southern hicks wont use it no matter what logic you give them.

Well once they figure out the problems with that whole inbreeding thing maybe we can tell them about some good uses for lec trizzy tee... that's if you really think they are an important demographic to Bitcoin's success or failure. 


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September 08, 2011, 07:12:46 PM
 #23

When it hit $35, it got on everyones radar.  But infrastructure isn't built overnight. It's not going to be built until someone can write down some reasonably accurate predictions, and that'll only happen when the market stablizes.  It'll only stablize after the 50->25 mining reward drop, and only if it survives the massive speculation that'll come with it.

Until then, it has to survive legislation, wars, and competing digital payment methods.

There is a growing need for a standardized online micropayment method. With the growing number of online 'currencies' such as Microsoft Points, Facebook Credits, etc the market will be forced under one roof or risk the loss of revenue due to overcrowding.

It may or may not be Bitcoin which is that roof. If it is though, and if we're looking ~6months after the reward drop-off, there will be around 11m bitcoins to split up among consumers.  That's when the 'average joe' will be dealing with just handfuls of satoshi's to perform commerce.

But there are a whole lot of 'ifs' between now and then.




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September 08, 2011, 08:12:05 PM
 #24

When it hit $35, it got on everyones radar.  But infrastructure isn't built overnight. It's not going to be built until someone can write down some reasonably accurate predictions, and that'll only happen when the market stablizes.  It'll only stablize after the 50->25 mining reward drop, and only if it survives the massive speculation that'll come with it.

Until then, it has to survive legislation, wars, and competing digital payment methods.

There is a growing need for a standardized online micropayment method. With the growing number of online 'currencies' such as Microsoft Points, Facebook Credits, etc the market will be forced under one roof or risk the loss of revenue due to overcrowding.

It may or may not be Bitcoin which is that roof. If it is though, and if we're looking ~6months after the reward drop-off, there will be around 11m bitcoins to split up among consumers.  That's when the 'average joe' will be dealing with just handfuls of satoshi's to perform commerce.

But there are a whole lot of 'ifs' between now and then.
+1

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September 08, 2011, 08:19:51 PM
 #25

-1

that is only relevant short term and only if you assume zero inflation in the fiat economy. Since that isn't possibly gonna happen those points are irrelevant. The failure point isn't adaptation by the masses.

It is if it can succeed in enabling real economic growth in a small community first. If that happens the masses are forced to join or shutting down the internet. Why? There is zero real economic growth everywhere else.

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September 08, 2011, 11:58:16 PM
 #26

I like threads like these, lets you see who is a fear-monger and who understands the system bitcoin is built upon.

In response to the original question, bitcoin value has declined following a multi-thousand percent upswing. This does not fill me with regret or worry, just part of the trading game. Now, had I bought near the top like you did, I'd probably not like seeing single digits.

Here's where it gets interesting though. Investment is about time frame. You needed to make a profit in a week or month? Well, should've bailed - but anyone can tell you that. You'd have to bide your time and look for another opportunity. Longer term, I believe in the solidity of the bitcoin system, so I'm not moving my core position.

I'm gathering though that you are in it for the longer term, just by the fact you didn't liquidate once it went below the highs. In that case, I say holding is worth it. You could listen to the people who still come here and spread fear and misinformation about bitcoin, (to what end, we can only wonder) or you can treat it like an investment and understand all markets have bear and bull trends.

Just make a note of the posters here that have nothing of true value to share. Interesting they consider their time worth the effort of discrediting a monetary system instead of chasing dollar-based opportunities, isn't it? I wonder what is it that makes them try so hard. If the system was so poor and failing, shouldn't we see it in the network hashing metrics?

I suggest taking any advice from one of these FUD-spreaders with a large boulder of salt. There are many hidden agendas lurking here.

All the best,

TraderTimm

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September 09, 2011, 12:55:29 AM
 #27

-1

that is only relevant short term and only if you assume zero inflation in the fiat economy. Since that isn't possibly gonna happen those points are irrelevant. The failure point isn't adaptation by the masses.

It is if it can succeed in enabling real economic growth in a small community first. If that happens the masses are forced to join or shutting down the internet. Why? There is zero real economic growth everywhere else.

I think we're a small community holding the early parts of a global currency.  And it's going to be quite a long time until you can pay for power and other essentials with Bitcoin. The inbetween is going to look like 'Internet points'. Spend them to buy song, spend them because someones post helped you, spend them somewhere.  Right now all the 'community' is doing is looking back and forth at each other betting on how much they'll be worth when/if it gets adopted. If I could do more with it than that, I would. But outside gambling, web services, and drugs there isn't much to do with them.

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September 09, 2011, 12:56:37 AM
 #28

Just make a note of the posters here that have nothing of true value to share. Interesting they consider their time worth the effort of discrediting a monetary system instead of chasing dollar-based opportunities, isn't it?

I guess I will never understand human nature.  There are many things I disagree with and/or dislike, but you won't find me seeking out forums where those things are discussed just so I can sling mud and try to discredit other people.  It's better to spend one's human capital getting behind things you're enthusiastic about and be a positive rather than a negative influence.

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September 09, 2011, 01:08:15 AM
 #29

-1

that is only relevant short term and only if you assume zero inflation in the fiat economy. Since that isn't possibly gonna happen those points are irrelevant. The failure point isn't adaptation by the masses.

It is if it can succeed in enabling real economic growth in a small community first. If that happens the masses are forced to join or shutting down the internet. Why? There is zero real economic growth everywhere else.

I think we're a small community holding the early parts of a global currency.  And it's going to be quite a long time until you can pay for power and other essentials with Bitcoin. The inbetween is going to look like 'Internet points'. Spend them to buy song, spend them because someones post helped you, spend them somewhere.  Right now all the 'community' is doing is looking back and forth at each other betting on how much they'll be worth when/if it gets adopted. If I could do more with it than that, I would. But outside gambling, web services, and drugs there isn't much to do with them.
There is, well not much but, just look at the goods subforum. Well besides the bitcoin keychain and the "tangible" bitcoins there isn't that much genuinely produced, however this will change.
And the awesome thing about it: It's going to be cheap, so cheap that everybody can participate.


There simply is no way around it and it will be the most important thing to happen with bitcoin ever because it cuts out the middlemen. I use mine exclusively for these things and planning to sell my own produced things for bitcoins as well, with the tools I have a 3D Printer and a Mill.

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payb.tc
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September 09, 2011, 01:13:35 AM
 #30

not that extreme... it only swung to 5.93 today (so far) Cheesy
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September 09, 2011, 01:18:09 AM
 #31

not that extreme... it only swung to 5.93 today (so far) Cheesy


Have you seen how much volume that was? That was a HUGE sale.
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September 09, 2011, 01:27:46 AM
 #32

If the system was so poor and failing, shouldn't we see it in the network hashing metrics?

No.  You'd see it in a slow, steady decline in price from the people slowly cashing out who had bought bitcoins for next to nothing.
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September 09, 2011, 01:32:58 AM
 #33

If it goes down to about a dollar I think I'll start buying.  All this up and down makes me too nauseated to be in the market right now.

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September 09, 2011, 01:36:15 AM
 #34

whats happening is the professionals are flushing out the kid miners of their holdings.  once this process is complete, then they will be free to take this back up to bubble territory.
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September 09, 2011, 01:37:13 AM
 #35

whats happening is the professionals are flushing out the kid miners of their holdings.  once this process is complete, then they will be free to take this back up to bubble territory.

Oh wow, nice observation.  I have no idea if its accurate, but I can see it happening.

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payb.tc
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September 09, 2011, 10:28:54 AM
 #36

not that extreme... it only swung to 5.93 today (so far) Cheesy


Have you seen how much volume that was? That was a HUGE sale.

no, didn't see the volume, but i was being sarcastic... was quite an extreme fluctuation.
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September 09, 2011, 10:38:42 AM
 #37

What I'm also seeing is a lot of stolen coins being dumped. The owner of Mt. Gox already confirmed this and I feel that overall this recent drop involves a lot of stolen coins being sold.

It's not that the coins were 100% stolen, there wasn't enough proof to freeze the funds or something like that. But still.

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September 09, 2011, 03:33:12 PM
 #38

There have been 3 major events that have caused major price fluctuations on bitcoins:

1) Silk Road shutting down
2) MTGox getting hacked (or whatever)
3) MBC fraud (sorry, but their story doesn't add up at all)


These sites seem to have one element in common -- they're all effectively monopolies, or were at the time.  



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payb.tc
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September 15, 2011, 11:45:50 PM
 #39

1) Silk Road shutting down

when did this happen? sorry i must have missed the memo.
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September 16, 2011, 01:31:14 AM
 #40

If the system was so poor and failing, shouldn't we see it in the network hashing metrics?

No.  You'd see it in a slow, steady decline in price from the people slowly cashing out who had bought bitcoins for next to nothing.

I disagree. Bitcoin priced in fiat currency is only a small part of the picture. The overall health of the network IS what Bitcoin is all about. If the collective tera-hash capacity of the network trends down, then we're in trouble.

As I haven't seen this, I just have to conclude that Bitcoin itself will survive.

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