2014 could be a slow year for bitcoin

[BitchicksHusband]

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza and distribution of majority is in the hands of just a few people.

What do you mean "too high" ? Why can't I buy a pizza or a single candy with bitcoin ?
And what do you mean "the price is too high" ? Can't I buy some bitcoin to hold for my 50 $ ?

It's a psychological problem that's a result of the cognitive bias known as the unit bias. I'm constantly amazed by how many people tell me they are interested in Bitcoin but haven't bought any because they can't afford it. The fact that bitcoins are extremely divisible seems to never be mentioned by the media, thus the average person doesn't even know that's a feature.

I have programmer friends who understand everything about bitcoin but still don't buy because of this psychological block.

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[Edward50]

Look at it from marketcap value, not from price per bitcoin. As the marketcap goes up which is inevitable, so will the price. Fixed amount of bitcoin will insure quick price rise. If we hit $50 Billion market cap this year we're looking at around $4000 / BTC

Price is important but this is a way more important factor in the rising price of Bitcoin that so few people seem to grasp. Bitcoin from $1 to $100 was $1B is new money. From $100 to $1000 is was ~$10 billion in new money. The problem with exponential growth is ~$100B in new money for $10k for Bitcoin.

I agree, as I wrote here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=385523.0

At these high prices bitcoin is just a bad investment because it would take a huge increase in market cap for the prices to go up higher. You can forget about easy returns. Actually, for the risk you are taking in bitcoin you are better off choosing risky stocks to put your money in. You will probably get a higher return on your money for less risk.

It seems that volume is getting lower and lower, I saw on Mt Gox a few days ago 24 hour volume in the 3 or 4,000's.

It seems that if people do not sell and just sit then it does cause scarcity. However, it is like a house of cards. If anything was to happen which would cause just a small increase in bitcoin holders to want to cash out the price would collapse. This may not happen as bitcoin holders are probably financially secure and probably have above average income and intelligence to just be able to buy them in the first place.

However, you are taking risk with your money at these high bitcoin prices. Just being that you are investing in a house of cards is risky. You will also need a considerable amount of money invested to make any significant gains in bitcoins at these prices.

The other thing is as bitcoin price stagnates, more speculators will put their money in other coins that see higher growth. Bitcoin and digital currencies are for the most part just a way to gamble. Dogecoin seems to be the new coin now that people are throwing lots of money into. This almost proves its just a big gamble.

But I honestly would rather invest in a more risky coin for $1000 to make $10,000.

Then invest $20,000 in bitcoin to make that same $10,000

I can live with losing $1000, but not $20,000. This is why I don't see a lot of money flowing into bitcoins anymore. The only way the price will rise is if volume gets lower and lower, but then you are investing in even a bigger house of cards.

[BitchicksHusband]

This mean scarcity and scarcity means high price. High price means less buyers and less buyers mean less volatility.

2) do you think Googles share price of 1,150 stops people from buying it? sure some people are deterred by the high price. however, even though one Google share cannot be divided at all, the price still rises because there are more buyers than sellers.

So for these reasons I believe BitCoin will not stagnate in 2014.

Google?  Let's be more optimistic.   Anyone heard of a little company called Berkshire?  Market cap $284 billion.  Current stock price $172,000.  Yet yes, people still buy it.  AND you can't break it down to buying only half of it...

Oh wait, you can.  How about Berkshire B share?  Only $115/share.  See what they did there?  Now its "cheaper" for the general public to buy!  Cool thing is, you can do the same with Bitcoin.     Let's own .001 Bitcoin, its easy. 

Name 10 more examples of stocks with a price over $10,000 per share.

[wobber]

I can live with losing $1000, but not $20,000. This is why I don't see a lot of money flowing into bitcoins anymore. The only way the price will rise is if volume gets lower and lower, but then you are investing in even a bigger house of cards.

Volume does gets lower and lower but I really don't see any price increase. It might at one point, but not for long.

[N_S]

At these high prices bitcoin is just a bad investment because it would take a huge increase in market cap for the prices to go up higher. You can forget about easy returns. Actually, for the risk you are taking in bitcoin you are better off choosing risky stocks to put your money in. You will probably get a higher return on your money for less risk.

It seems that volume is getting lower and lower, I saw on Mt Gox a few days ago 24 hour volume in the 3 or 4,000's.

It seems that if people do not sell and just sit then it does cause scarcity. However, it is like a house of cards. If anything was to happen which would cause just a small increase in bitcoin holders to want to cash out the price would collapse. This may not happen as bitcoin holders are probably financially secure and probably have above average income and intelligence to just be able to buy them in the first place.

However, you are taking risk with your money at these high bitcoin prices. Just being that you are investing in a house of cards is risky. You will also need a considerable amount of money invested to make any significant gains in bitcoins at these prices.

The other thing is as bitcoin price stagnates, more speculators will put their money in other coins that see higher growth. Bitcoin and digital currencies are for the most part just a way to gamble. Dogecoin seems to be the new coin now that people are throwing lots of money into. This almost proves its just a big gamble.

But I honestly would rather invest in a more risky coin for $1000 to make $10,000.

Then invest $20,000 in bitcoin to make that same $10,000

I can live with losing $1000, but not $20,000. This is why I don't see a lot of money flowing into bitcoins anymore. The only way the price will rise is if volume gets lower and lower, but then you are investing in even a bigger house of cards.

I see stuff like this written all the time and I must say, I think both bolded points are utter nonsense. In bitcoin's history, we've seen price drops of over 90% and the analogy to this being a house of cards is an attempt to paint bitcoin in an unfairly pessimistic light. Usually when a house of cards collapses, it doesn't quickly resurrect itself.

[hdbuck]

At these high prices bitcoin is just a bad investment because it would take a huge increase in market cap for the prices to go up higher. You can forget about easy returns. Actually, for the risk you are taking in bitcoin you are better off choosing risky stocks to put your money in. You will probably get a higher return on your money for less risk.

It seems that volume is getting lower and lower, I saw on Mt Gox a few days ago 24 hour volume in the 3 or 4,000's.

It seems that if people do not sell and just sit then it does cause scarcity. However, it is like a house of cards. If anything was to happen which would cause just a small increase in bitcoin holders to want to cash out the price would collapse. This may not happen as bitcoin holders are probably financially secure and probably have above average income and intelligence to just be able to buy them in the first place.

However, you are taking risk with your money at these high bitcoin prices. Just being that you are investing in a house of cards is risky. You will also need a considerable amount of money invested to make any significant gains in bitcoins at these prices.

The other thing is as bitcoin price stagnates, more speculators will put their money in other coins that see higher growth. Bitcoin and digital currencies are for the most part just a way to gamble. Dogecoin seems to be the new coin now that people are throwing lots of money into. This almost proves its just a big gamble.

But I honestly would rather invest in a more risky coin for $1000 to make $10,000.

Then invest $20,000 in bitcoin to make that same $10,000

I can live with losing $1000, but not $20,000. This is why I don't see a lot of money flowing into bitcoins anymore. The only way the price will rise is if volume gets lower and lower, but then you are investing in even a bigger house of cards.

I see stuff like this written all the time and I must say, I think both bolded points are utter nonsense. In bitcoin's history, we've seen price drops of over 90% and the analogy to this being a house of cards is an attempt to paint bitcoin in an unfairly pessimistic light. Usually when a house of cards collapses, it doesn't quickly resurrect itself.

i guess i get the point Edward was making. however, there is and will be more and more money flooding the Bitcoin economy as new business emerges, VC injecting cash, wall street joining the fun.. etc etc.. these levels of investment are not light and they surely will take bitcoin to the next level

[Edward50]

At these high prices bitcoin is just a bad investment because it would take a huge increase in market cap for the prices to go up higher. You can forget about easy returns. Actually, for the risk you are taking in bitcoin you are better off choosing risky stocks to put your money in. You will probably get a higher return on your money for less risk.

It seems that volume is getting lower and lower, I saw on Mt Gox a few days ago 24 hour volume in the 3 or 4,000's.

It seems that if people do not sell and just sit then it does cause scarcity. However, it is like a house of cards. If anything was to happen which would cause just a small increase in bitcoin holders to want to cash out the price would collapse. This may not happen as bitcoin holders are probably financially secure and probably have above average income and intelligence to just be able to buy them in the first place.

However, you are taking risk with your money at these high bitcoin prices. Just being that you are investing in a house of cards is risky. You will also need a considerable amount of money invested to make any significant gains in bitcoins at these prices.

The other thing is as bitcoin price stagnates, more speculators will put their money in other coins that see higher growth. Bitcoin and digital currencies are for the most part just a way to gamble. Dogecoin seems to be the new coin now that people are throwing lots of money into. This almost proves its just a big gamble.

But I honestly would rather invest in a more risky coin for $1000 to make $10,000.

Then invest $20,000 in bitcoin to make that same $10,000

I can live with losing $1000, but not $20,000. This is why I don't see a lot of money flowing into bitcoins anymore. The only way the price will rise is if volume gets lower and lower, but then you are investing in even a bigger house of cards.

I see stuff like this written all the time and I must say, I think both bolded points are utter nonsense. In bitcoin's history, we've seen price drops of over 90% and the analogy to this being a house of cards is an attempt to paint bitcoin in an unfairly pessimistic light. Usually when a house of cards collapses, it doesn't quickly resurrect itself.

You have to understand that in the past, when bit coins were mostly in the low double digits, that was a different story. Right now at close to $1000 dollars a bitcoin, the risk is completely different.

You would need to invest so much money right now to make any significant gains. Gone are the times when a simple investment of $8.00 and a possibility of it going to $16 or even higher were possible. Even at that point you could say bitcoin had an all time high of $30, we surely will get there again.

But now at $1000 dollars, can you expect the price to $2,000 or $4,000 so easily? Even during rallies, there will be lots of money needed to push it up to those levels.

I do know you can't compare everything exactly as the volume is so much lower now, but we are talking big price swings now with huge market cap increases and decreases.

But who knows what will happen, I would never have thought people would pay anywhere near $1000 for a bitcoin.

[skivrmt]

This mean scarcity and scarcity means high price. High price means less buyers and less buyers mean less volatility.

2) do you think Googles share price of 1,150 stops people from buying it? sure some people are deterred by the high price. however, even though one Google share cannot be divided at all, the price still rises because there are more buyers than sellers.

So for these reasons I believe BitCoin will not stagnate in 2014.

Google?  Let's be more optimistic.   Anyone heard of a little company called Berkshire?  Market cap $284 billion.  Current stock price $172,000.  Yet yes, people still buy it.  AND you can't break it down to buying only half of it...

Oh wait, you can.  How about Berkshire B share?  Only $115/share.  See what they did there?  Now its "cheaper" for the general public to buy!  Cool thing is, you can do the same with Bitcoin.     Let's own .001 Bitcoin, its easy. 

Name 10 more examples of stocks with a price over $10,000 per share.

I could name you around 100 of them, but since an investor can't buy partial shares of stocks generally, most companies to go through a stock split to make the shares for "affordable" for the general investor.  Bitcoin doesn't need to split.  One, it can't.  But two, people can already buy partial "shares" of Bitcoin.

[Ibian]

Look at it from marketcap value, not from price per bitcoin. As the marketcap goes up which is inevitable, so will the price. Fixed amount of bitcoin will insure quick price rise. If we hit $50 Billion market cap this year we're looking at around $4000 / BTC

Price is important but this is a way more important factor in the rising price of Bitcoin that so few people seem to grasp. Bitcoin from $1 to $100 was $1B is new money. From $100 to $1000 is was ~$10 billion in new money. The problem with exponential growth is ~$100B in new money for $10k for Bitcoin.

"$1B isn't so much money really, but $10B is just insane, you'd have to be nuts to believe that could happen in less than a year." - You, about one year ago.

[skivrmt]

Look at it from marketcap value, not from price per bitcoin. As the marketcap goes up which is inevitable, so will the price. Fixed amount of bitcoin will insure quick price rise. If we hit $50 Billion market cap this year we're looking at around $4000 / BTC

Price is important but this is a way more important factor in the rising price of Bitcoin that so few people seem to grasp. Bitcoin from $1 to $100 was $1B is new money. From $100 to $1000 is was ~$10 billion in new money. The problem with exponential growth is ~$100B in new money for $10k for Bitcoin.

"$1B isn't so much money really, but $10B is just insane, you'd have to be nuts to believe that could happen in less than a year." - You, about one year ago.

Exactly. It could happen. But for $100B we're going to need institutional money of some sort to get to that price. Its not just going to be individual investors. We're getting there with hedge funds holding coin, Second Market BIT trust starting last Sept, Fortress fund semi opening, and maybe soon this year the W twins ETF opening.

I think it'll happen, just maybe not as soon as most of us would like

[N_S]

You have to understand that in the past, when bit coins were mostly in the low double digits, that was a different story. Right now at close to $1000 dollars a bitcoin, the risk is completely different.

The risk isn't any different - a 50% gain is a 50% gain no matter which way you cut it.

If the price is $100/BTC and I hold $100 worth of bitcoin, I have 1BTC. If I see a price increase of 50%, my 1BTC is now worth $150.

If the price is $10,000/BTC and I hold $100 worth of bitcoin, I have 0.01BTC. If I see a price increase of 50%, my 0.01BTC is now worth $150.

You would need to invest so much money right now to make any significant gains. Gone are the times when a simple investment of $8.00 and a possibility of it going to $16 or even higher were possible. Even at that point you could say bitcoin had an all time high of $30, we surely will get there again.

I flat disagree with this. A gain is quantified using a percentage and I definitely don't believe that significant gains are a thing of the past. Will we see gains of 5,000% per year? Probably not, but compared to any other asset class at the moment, you're probably not going to find one with a brighter future.

But now at $1000 dollars, can you expect the price to $2,000 or $4,000 so easily? Even during rallies, there will be lots of money needed to push it up to those levels.

You're absolutely right that the amount of money required to move the price increases as the price increases. But institutional money is just starting to get involved here. If you're aware at just how large the scale of that is, we could see price movements of at least two orders of magnitude.

[600watt]

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza

I bought pizza for bitcoins for lunch on Friday. I'm pretty regular. Guess the price is not too high after all.

completly illogic. there is 7 billion people but only 12 (21) million bitcoins. in order to go mainstream as a payment system it needs to go down up to satoshi like levels. that means the price for a full bitcoin would be WAY higher than currently.

it is hard for me to understand that someone having the chance of getting educated by participating in this forum since june 2010 has not cought this point.

you are saying price is too high to go higher ? price should be lower to get higher ? 

[wobber]

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza

I bought pizza for bitcoins for lunch on Friday. I'm pretty regular. Guess the price is not too high after all.

completly illogic. there is 7 billion people but only 12 (21) million bitcoins. in order to go mainstream as a payment system it needs to go down up to satoshi like levels. that means the price for a full bitcoin would be WAY higher than currently.

it is hard for me to understand that someone having the chance of getting educated by participating in this forum since june 2010 has not cought this point.

you are saying price is too high to go higher ? price should be lower to get higher ? 

I got what' your saying. I was actually thinking: price is too high to have small transactions because we have to use too many decimals.

Anyway, dunno if it's some kind of disorders but sometimes I'm thinking a whole book but write or say only 2 words.

[600watt]

Anyway, price is too high for regular people to buy, too high to be used in small transaction like pizza

I bought pizza for bitcoins for lunch on Friday. I'm pretty regular. Guess the price is not too high after all.

completly illogic. there is 7 billion people but only 12 (21) million bitcoins. in order to go mainstream as a payment system it needs to go down up to satoshi like levels. that means the price for a full bitcoin would be WAY higher than currently.

it is hard for me to understand that someone having the chance of getting educated by participating in this forum since june 2010 has not cought this point.

you are saying price is too high to go higher ? price should be lower to get higher ? 

I got what' your saying. I was actually thinking: price is too high to have small transactions because we have to use too many decimals.

Anyway, dunno if it's some kind of disorders but sometimes I'm thinking a whole book but write or say only 2 words.

sry for misunderstanding you. the decimal issue is indeed a problem.

[finder_keeper]

sry for misunderstanding you. the decimal issue is indeed a problem.

I have sold a few bitcoins to friends and people at bitcoin meetups. I have found that using milli BTC is easily understood and very convenient. eg I recently quoted 110 millies for $100 and it sounded much nicer than zero-point-one-one. It might even have reassured the buyer about whether he was getting anything significant.

If the value goes up by another order of magnitude or 2 (ha!) using uBTC (mickeys) might be better.

[bambou]

sry for misunderstanding you. the decimal issue is indeed a problem.

I have sold a few bitcoins to friends and people at bitcoin meetups. I have found that using milli BTC is easily understood and very convenient. eg I recently quoted 110 millies for $100 and it sounded much nicer than zero-point-one-one. It might even have reassured the buyer about whether he was getting anything significant.

If the value goes up by another order of magnitude or 2 (ha!) using uBTC (mickeys) might be better.

+1 for milies
+1 for mickeys

edit: just quoted you in a related topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=427522.new#new

[pungopete468]

The decimal problem will be solved when you can choose to send BTC amounts in USD or other currencies.

Instead of pulling out your calculator and doing math you can just send $31.50 USD or $0.0045 USD and your client will convert it to BTC for you automatically. It would be easy to do and it will happen soon.

[wobber]

The decimal problem will be solved when you can choose to send BTC amounts in USD or other currencies.

Instead of pulling out your calculator and doing math you can just send $31.50 USD or $0.0045 USD and your client will convert it to BTC for you automatically. It would be easy to do and it will happen soon.

If this happens it will defeat the purpose of bitcoin. I don't want to see that feature. Why do you need it pegged to USD?

[pungopete468]

The decimal problem will be solved when you can choose to send BTC amounts in USD or other currencies.

Instead of pulling out your calculator and doing math you can just send $31.50 USD or $0.0045 USD and your client will convert it to BTC for you automatically. It would be easy to do and it will happen soon.

If this happens it will defeat the purpose of bitcoin. I don't want to see that feature. Why do you need it pegged to USD?

Because if I have $10,000 in USD that I want to convert to BTC it's near impossible to calculate it out right now in one shot...

It's a matter of convenience. Convenience is a major motivator for people.

Go to Coinbase and attempt to purchase exactly $10,000 worth of BTC and tell me how easy it is. You don't have to click buy but you can see my point when you try to calculate the BTC amount.

Another reason is because people don't accept rounded figures when dealing with money... USD prices are pretty much absolute in that if you are a dollar short you can't buy in most places...

[wobber]

I understand convenience but what about EUR, CNY and others ?nd what USD price should it use (what exchange)?