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Author Topic: Market Doesn't Look to Hold Above $6,000  (Read 7923 times)
grod
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September 09, 2011, 02:24:01 AM
 #21

It doesn't take a sophisticated bot to maintain the illusion of buy walls.  Course, if they get taken out enough times, you won't be seeing that again until prices get much, much lower.

I think exactly this happened at 13.  The bot was trying to create an illusion of stability, trading volume and support and then got sold to hard.

TL;DR: look for the walls again once we retreat to 5-ish.
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September 09, 2011, 02:24:21 AM
 #22

It appears to be one person with all those buywalls.  I am watching him this second.  He had two big ones and now they're all changing to a staircase of little buywalls.  

They'll "magically" disappear just like they did before. I've never seen a buywall hold in the last weeks. They just vanish right before being hit.

Not all of them.  Whoever just sold 18k bitcoins in one go managed to blast through a few walls.

I mean the huge ones, like those that we see right now at 5.95 and 5.75. They have a tendency to disappear just before being hit. Like smoothie says it's likely someone trying to have it look as if there were support.

I know what you're talking about.  I agree that lots of orders are put up with the intention that they'll influence behavior and not get executed, but there's risk involved in that strategy because sometimes they do.  As I said, the recent 18k sell went through some very large orders.
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September 09, 2011, 02:25:16 AM
 #23

It doesn't take a sophisticated bot to maintain the illusion of buy walls.  Course, if they get taken out enough times, you won't be seeing that again until prices get much, much lower.

I think exactly this happened at 13.  The bot was trying to create an illusion of stability, trading volume and support and then got sold to hard.

TL;DR: look for the walls again once we retreat to 5 4-ish.


Fixed for you.  Grin

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grod
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September 09, 2011, 02:30:20 AM
 #24

It doesn't take a sophisticated bot to maintain the illusion of buy walls.  Course, if they get taken out enough times, you won't be seeing that again until prices get much, much lower.

I think exactly this happened at 13.  The bot was trying to create an illusion of stability, trading volume and support and then got sold to hard.

TL;DR: look for the walls again once we retreat to 5 4-ish.


Fixed for you.  Grin

Now that depends.  If you assume The Manipulator wants to buy cheap coins (and I don't) then yeah, let it freefall to $4.

I think The Manipulator wants to *SELL* coins.   That's how he or she has the capital to put up fake bid walls to try and support the price while dumping - from previous selling.  I think the walls will be back at $5, won't be waiting for $4 at all.

I guess we'll find out.
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September 09, 2011, 02:37:40 AM
 #25

It doesn't take a sophisticated bot to maintain the illusion of buy walls.  Course, if they get taken out enough times, you won't be seeing that again until prices get much, much lower.

I think exactly this happened at 13.  The bot was trying to create an illusion of stability, trading volume and support and then got sold to hard.

TL;DR: look for the walls again once we retreat to 5 4-ish.


Fixed for you.  Grin

Now that depends.  If you assume The Manipulator wants to buy cheap coins (and I don't) then yeah, let it freefall to $4.

I think The Manipulator wants to *SELL* coins.   That's how he or she has the capital to put up fake bid walls to try and support the price while dumping - from previous selling.  I think the walls will be back at $5, won't be waiting for $4 at all.

I guess we'll find out.


News Flash: The manipulator doesn't control the entire market.

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JBDive
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September 09, 2011, 02:59:21 AM
 #26

of course it has gone down, I bought back in at $7.75. If I sell here you can expect it to go back over $8.
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September 09, 2011, 03:04:41 AM
 #27

Whoever the large trader is in the current market is doing a brilliant job.  Price is dumped to below $6, then slowly built up to $6.42 with small orders before nice chunky sells like 1374btc are put through and the price falls again.  It's rather interesting to watch.  One thing is for sure, win or lose, MtGox comes out on top.

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September 09, 2011, 03:08:06 AM
 #28

Whoever the large trader is in the current market is doing a brilliant job.  Price is dumped to below $6, then slowly built up to $6.42 with small orders before nice chunky sells like 1374btc are put through and the price falls again.  It's rather interesting to watch.  One thing is for sure, win or lose, MtGox comes out on top.



They don't make anything if bitcoin goes under.
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September 09, 2011, 03:11:34 AM
 #29

This is all following the manipulator's plan.
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September 09, 2011, 03:31:33 AM
 #30

some of you act as if you've never seen bitcoin hit $6 before. you must not have been around last month (august 6th to be exact). It only took two weeks before it was back up to $12 again.  The manipulator knows what he's doing. Never doubt the manipulator.  If you're selling low then he's playing you like a fiddle.  If youre buying low then he's your friend.


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September 09, 2011, 03:59:48 AM
 #31

I know what you're talking about.  I agree that lots of orders are put up with the intention that they'll influence behavior and not get executed, but there's risk involved in that strategy because sometimes they do.  As I said, the recent 18k sell went through some very large orders.

There is zero risk involved if it is the exchange itself the one that is putting up those walls.
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September 09, 2011, 04:12:39 AM
 #32

I know what you're talking about.  I agree that lots of orders are put up with the intention that they'll influence behavior and not get executed, but there's risk involved in that strategy because sometimes they do.  As I said, the recent 18k sell went through some very large orders.

There is zero risk involved if it is the exchange itself the one that is putting up those walls.

Personally I trhink they shouldn't be trading on their own exchange since they have a massive advantage over everyone else. They can see everyone's account and make profit on all trades.

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September 09, 2011, 05:29:45 AM
 #33

I know what you're talking about.  I agree that lots of orders are put up with the intention that they'll influence behavior and not get executed, but there's risk involved in that strategy because sometimes they do.  As I said, the recent 18k sell went through some very large orders.

There is zero risk involved if it is the exchange itself the one that is putting up those walls.

Personally I trhink they shouldn't be trading on their own exchange since they have a massive advantage over everyone else. They can see everyone's account and make profit on all trades.

It works for Wall Street banks where there are laws to put in place 'Chinese Walls' to prevent traders trading shares the bank itself is involved in.  If people can get away with that in a regulated environment, then what about bitcoin exchanges where pretty much anything goes?  It's not a risk free trade for the exchange as they could be left with a bunch of bitcoins and have to pay out a mass of orders in dollars, but as mentioned the exchange gets to see everyone's orders first and can act accordingly.


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September 09, 2011, 06:57:08 AM
 #34

I asked tux what they did with those bitcoins that they earn.  He said they don't trade them.  He said they hold them and use them to buy things like that polish exchange. 
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September 09, 2011, 07:17:23 AM
 #35


Bitcoin, last 3 months.

Since the bubble burst in early June, Bitcoin behavior has been quite consistent - the price drops about $4 per month.  There's volatility, but the 30 day moving average is a consistent downward line.  The "crashes" and "rallies" are just noise in a thinly traded market. The overall trend is a long, slow slide, as I've been pointing out for a while now.  After each bottom there's some recovery, but each bottom is lower than the previous one.

It's interesting that the decline is linear, not logarithmic. Now that we're down to $6, we can't go on losing $4 per month much longer, or the price would hit zero in late October.
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September 09, 2011, 07:20:51 AM
 #36



I believe we are testing a strong historical area of support. If it goes below 5.80 the market is in free fall to 3 and maybe even below that. From a technical standpoint we are clearly seeing a falling triangle formation.
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September 09, 2011, 07:24:44 AM
 #37



I believe we are testing a strong historical area of support. If it goes below 5.80 the market is in free fall to 3 and maybe even below that. From a technical standpoint we are clearly seeing a falling triangle formation.

I have to agree with you here. if you draw an upward trendline you will see that we just broke the trendline in the past few days.

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old_engineer
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September 09, 2011, 09:19:52 AM
 #38

of course it has gone down, I bought back in at $7.75. If I sell here you can expect it to go back over $8.
I've felt that!  Well, at least your money is going to other crypto-techno-nerd manipulators, not wall street manipulators.
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September 09, 2011, 09:25:37 AM
 #39

I believe we are testing a strong historical area of support. If it goes below 5.80 the market is in free fall to 3 and maybe even below that. From a technical standpoint we are clearly seeing a falling triangle formation.
I agree but I don't think it is very likely that we'll go below 5.80. Why? Because it would mean selling at a loss for most people.

Those who bought their coins would have had to hold onto them for over 4 months now to not make a loss (back in May was the last time you could buy coins for less). That group is either very greedy (not selling at 32 Wink) or very convinced of Bitcoin's long-term success and both groups will probably not sell now either.

Those who mine their coins at current difficulty-levels and can still sell them at a profit below 5.80 are in a minority (most of the non-US world dropped out of mining quite a while ago). That leaves the speculating miners who hold on to their mined coins for over 1-2 months (back when difficulty was significantly lower).

So unless we have another panic I don't see the price just "drifting" much below 5.80.
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September 09, 2011, 09:28:04 AM
 #40

I asked tux what they did with those bitcoins that they earn.  He said they don't trade them.  He said they hold them and use them to buy things like that polish exchange. 

Of course he said that. You think he'd tell the truth? Who's going to check it anyway, it's unregulated.

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