Bitcoin is a bubble - Nobel Laureate in Economics

[descarte]

when the whole world believes in it, it no longer becomes a bubble.

[aasl]

actually, inside the bubble, there is a bit of coins~~~

[2bfree]

 Obama is a Nobel Laureate and this is a man who hates liberty and peace. So I would not trust Nobel Laureates!

[Johnny Bitcoinseed]

His name says it all - "Shill"er

Bubble Head

[hilariousandco]

Obama is a Nobel Laureate and this is a man who hates liberty and peace. So I would not trust Nobel Laureates!

I think some Nobel Prizes hold more weight than others, but obviously giving a Nobel Peace Prize to a mass murderer is some kind of joke, or perhaps they were trying to make an ironic statement. Or maybe like most awards they mean very little in the real world. Let's measure weight by merit and actions, not awards on somebodies mantelpiece.

[PsySec]

1 - 33 . . . BUBBLE!!!

30 - 266 . . .  BUBBLE!!!

150 - 1280 . . . BUBBBLE!!!


How long before it isn't a bubble? Any economists here? Preferably a "nobel" laureate of course.

[DontMineMe]

Is he aware what it takes to creat a single bitcoin now? Sooner it will be easier to dig for gold at the bottom of sea than mining a single coin 

[Bigeyeone]

As long as half the people I talk to in real life don't even know what bitcoin is and less then 1 % of the people I know in real life own any bitcoin, I dont see how bitcoin can be in a bubble, bitcoin is still in its infancy basically.

All the people that think bitcoin is in a bubble, are living in an information bubble themselves, surrounded by other people just like them, they should go out in the streets and mingle among regular folks and check how many of them even know what bitcoin is.  

You know by the time my auntie actually owns bitcoin, I will start considering whether bitcoin is in a bubble or not 

[jdbtracker]

The question has always been,
"But how much better is it than what exists today?"
Well, "How do you qualify the answer?"
"With economic value, derived from utility and exchange-ability."
"What about the Meta aspect of this? the underlying structure and speed of change? Can we not see it's patterns and change them?"
"That is the role of Central Planning to decide, no one can have perfect information, individuals would have to be all focused on the events as they happened
adding extra complexity to the system would hinder planners from applying specific changes, and the fact that no individual can perfectly know the whole truth
would create dissonance within the system. It is better to let the best informed decide."
"The best informed are those who see all the events at the most detailed levels and from the most perspectives; No matter from where one perceives reality
It all starts from the One, each individual deciding what is correct, it is simply a matter of learning what everyone knows to be correct to become the best
informed; One can even observe the observer, turning the awareness within into a infinite loop, a hall of mirrors rewarding or deceiving those willing to look.
The individual might get lost but the collective will learn from every vision perceived, even with imperfect communication, every path will be known, making all
change predictable and only a matter of choice."

  I see Bitcoin as providing the same benefits as the legacy banking system with a few technical improvements, shortcuts to do the same work with
extra choice thrown in. The economists sticking so closely to their data can't see the aspects they are not trained to perceive, specifically the Technological,
Psychological, Social and Informational effects of this, The idea is stronger, the network effect applies as more learn, they discover what lies ahead, opening
their horizons to new possibilities. Is their any value to it, of course some people may find value in modifying the tempo of the monetary system, changing
larger aspects like those mentioned, above and beyond it's network, the meta Version of the Meta. What I'm saying is, " They got so caught up in observing
and controlling the flow of money they forgot about what it's good for," sometimes limiting the good to stop the bad is done without understanding the impact it
will have.
  I know the change Bitcoin will make, it increases the market share of participants in the a market by giving the un-banked a chance to impact the world
beyond their current horizons, It simply does not have that impediment imposed on it by any entity or organization, it doesn't have a lot of their limitations.
It's network is small now but it can move into niches other monetary systems avoid; Uncertainty of size with a risky demographic population, are bad for returns.
  It's speed, creates change faster, bypassing all monetary restrictions, reaffirming ones reach and power of change, You simply have to ask someone who does
regular remittances or has done a large bank transfer... there is so much red tape to cut just to transfer ones accumulated financial power from one zone to the next.
I think the system that had regional monetary controls was called Mercantilism, I thought Adam Smith proved such controls are just wrong.
  To say it is a bubble is to completely forget that we are watching this from it's inception, beyond the simple idea of promissory notes of 300 years ago, and the
current fiat backed guard; You look at history and it is a tradition of incorporation of new ideas to an age old one, that of money, It's never changed, just the way
it's denominated.

[Its About Sharing]

Meanwhile the FED is printing around 1 TRILLION dollars a year. (Half of that to basically pay interest.) Talk about a bubble that is going to pop.
Cryptocurrencies might be what helps save us from a banking collapse. I don't think they had that in mind when they made all these "Destined to break the banking system" decisions the last 13 years or so...

[qualia8]

> 3. Ask him when he ever in his life invented something or had a vision about any technological disruption that changed the world.

Ever heard of the Case-Schiller index?  This guy also made it possible to insure against rapidly falling housing prices.  Robert Schiller is a great economist, with a proven track record of predictions in the real world, and also more innovation that the neckbeards posting shit about him.  No question.  He's also a decent human being.

I hope he is wrong about bitcoin.  The thing about Schiller is, he thinks everything is a bubble, so this is not terribly surprising.  Yes, he called the housing bubble and the tech bubble.  But he pretty much thinks everything is overvalued. 

[befuddled]

1 - 33 . . . BUBBLE!!!

30 - 266 . . .  BUBBLE!!!

150 - 1280 . . . BUBBBLE!!!

You forgot:
epsilon - 1 .... BUBBLE!

I remember in early-mid 2011 around here people pleased as punch that a bitcoin was worth a whole euro, or a whole dollar. Forget which.

[Cryptopher]

I wonder what criteria need to be met to convince people that this isn't a bubble. I mean when does something stop being considered a bubble.

Will it no longer be considered a bubble when a certain handful of companies take BTC payments successfully? Or when x number of people use BTC? Or is it when the value stabilises (not for a long while)?

[PsySec]

1 - 33 . . . BUBBLE!!!

30 - 266 . . .  BUBBLE!!!

150 - 1280 . . . BUBBBLE!!!

You forgot:
epsilon - 1 .... BUBBLE!

I remember in early-mid 2011 around here people pleased as punch that a bitcoin was worth a whole euro, or a whole dollar. Forget which.

unfortunately i wasn't part of this wonderfully liberating experience in early 2011

jumped on board late 2011 been long ever since

[kisa2005]

> 3. Ask him when he ever in his life invented something or had a vision about any technological disruption that changed the world.

Ever heard of the Case-Schiller index?  This guy also made it possible to insure against rapidly falling housing prices.  Robert Schiller is a great economist, with a proven track record of predictions in the real world, and also more innovation that the neckbeards posting shit about him.  No question.  He's also a decent human being.

I hope he is wrong about bitcoin.  The thing about Schiller is, he thinks everything is a bubble, so this is not terribly surprising.  Yes, he called the housing bubble and the tech bubble.  But he pretty much thinks everything is overvalued. 

+1
absolutely great economist, very boring technical writing style though--- he doesn't think everything is bubble, just recently he said he is buying US stocks, for instance. He is very good at statistical analysis, perhaps he is not that familiar with the whole bitcoin phenomenon yet and will likely have to revise his opinion. Don't get angry folks, BTC is so disruptive to the whole value system of most economists, that it is very difficult for them not to fight the concept...

[hilariousandco]

I wonder what criteria need to be met to convince people that this isn't a bubble. I mean when does something stop being considered a bubble.

Will it no longer be considered a bubble when a certain handful of companies take BTC payments successfully? Or when x number of people use BTC? Or is it when the value stabilises (not for a long while)?

Bubble is a word for naysayers because they can't think of anything better or factual to slander BTC with. Bubbles aren't necessarily bad either and are to be expected with something so new.

[Cryptopher]

I wonder what criteria need to be met to convince people that this isn't a bubble. I mean when does something stop being considered a bubble.

Will it no longer be considered a bubble when a certain handful of companies take BTC payments successfully? Or when x number of people use BTC? Or is it when the value stabilises (not for a long while)?

Bubble is a word for naysayers because they can't think of anything better or factual to slander BTC with. Bubbles aren't necessarily bad either and are to be expected with something so new.

Sure, I mean anything revolution must be considered a bubble under some estimation during its initial time. Whether it continues to develop or simply fizzles out would make people say "ah it wasn't a bubble after all" or "told you, it was a bubble all along" lol. During the potential "bubble" period it can only be speculated. All about hindsight I suppose.

[Misesian]

Bitcoin seems like a bubble to mainstream economists because Bitcoin is meant to be a currency so it's meant to be spent but most people are buying them with the opinion they'll go up but for those who believe Bitcoin also represents a store of value and believe Bitcoin will eventually be a mainstream currency then it isn't a bubble, in fact it's very undervalued.

Also there's the fact that economists only care about consumption and they don't think money should be a store of value considering the amount of money they're willing to print to apparently save us, so of course it seems like a bubble to them.

They probably think gold is a bubble too because it's just shiny metal and most people aren't spending it or using it for electronics or fillings

[extee]

cryptocurrencies are here to stay. no question about it. and  some technology aspect of bitcoin will live on forever (blockchain/ledger/opensourcemoney etc these concepts will live on)
but bitcoin which is now just one "brand" of cryptocurrency (although the first one ) is a total bubble.  bitcoins growth has  been  exactly the "bubbly ride" traders love..there's been at least 3 bubble pops where traders have been able to easily double up their stash. and big payout days on dumb money are still to come as more sheeples jump on board. rinse and repeat till there's no more sheeples to bleed dry.
baid were the first company to make television...other brands brought more innovation and took over ....the technology of television still lived ......
ibm was the first personal computer......other brands entered the market with more innovation and took over ..personal computers sdtill lived on...
myspace was the first social media....then other brands brought more innovation and took over (twitter/facebook)....social media still lives on....and myspace now is dead.
bitcoin was first cryptocurrency.....other cryptos are bringing innovation (PoS) and will take over (not saying which ones).....cryptocurrency will live on.....

[jdbtracker]

Humanity is a bubble.
That rose from the primordial ooze, a wart on the larger bubble known as life.

Man, if you look at things at a large enough time scale... everything is a bubble, It's just figuring out how stable those bubbles are.
It's all just ripples on the larger wave of technology. I agree with the idea that, he'll come around once he stops thinking just about
the economic aspects and realizes that it is a infrastructure, people are investing in the development of this technology called
Cryptocurrency. Plain and simple every dollar put towards this experiment is prolonging the life of the Brand, Bitcoin, and incentivizing
people to develop it anyway they can, now it's a movement, it's starting it's own wave, adding momentum to the larger bubble called
The Digital Revolution.