Is MtGox dying?

[notig]

And what happens if bitstamps bank puts limits on the money it can transfer as well? are you going to then hope it dies next? There is a lot of dumbassery with bitcoin I swear.

[Carlton Banks]

And what happens if bitstamps bank puts limits on the money it can transfer as well? are you going to then hope it dies next? There is a lot of dumbassery with bitcoin I swear.

+1

Nothing to suggest that BTC-e or Bitstamp shouldn't start to encounter similar problems now that they've surpassed Gox's trading volume. Let's just say that they've not got MSB licences in all 50 US states either.

[empoweoqwj]

My last BTC withdraw from mtgox was 1 week ago. It was instantaneous ...

To where? Japan, SEPA, International?

BTC means he withdrew BTC.
I had the same experience. A week ago it was instant. Todays it takes hours/days. Perhaps they've run into some technical problems with withdrawal processor. I expect them to communicate better.


Posted From bitcointalk.org Android App

Technical problems with withdrawing BTC? That sounds like a first, even for Gox. I've never used a site where you couldn't withdraw bitcoins ... Perhaps they don't have the BTC "on hand" any more ...

[cdog]

It comes down to ownership/management, anyone competent would not let such a profitable unique business opportunity languish, and would tear down any and all walls night and day until withdrawl issues were 100% sorted, even if it meant moving the business to another country or a huge cash investment to comply with local laws (like being a registered money transmitter in the USA).

Basically the new owner, Mark Karpeles, isnt a Bitcoin guy, recently got obscenely rich, and cant be bothered to run his business. Hes most likely trying to shop it, but nobody is buying cause the brand is tarnished.

[empoweoqwj]

It comes down to ownership/management, anyone competent would not let such a profitable unique business opportunity languish, and would tear down any and all walls night and day until withdrawl issues were 100% sorted, even if it meant moving the business to another country or a huge cash investment to comply with local laws (like being a registered money transmitter in the USA).

Basically the new owner, Mark Karpeles, isnt a Bitcoin guy, recently got obscenely rich, and cant be bothered to run his business. Hes most likely trying to shop it, but nobody is buying cause the brand is tarnished.

He's currently running a 101-course on "How to run a business into the ground". Can't argue with his teachings

[balanghai]

If they would not include LTC. They would.

[komar]

The divergence is 20% now. Great!

[empoweoqwj]

The divergence is 20% now. Great!

Great for what? You are a statistics guy. Would you say arb between gox and btc-e is happening right now? If it was, wouldn't the prices be converging not diverging?

[DeathAndTaxes]

The divergence is 20% now. Great!

Great for what? You are a statistics guy. Would you say arb between gox and btc-e is happening right now? If it was, wouldn't the prices be converging not diverging?

There is no arbitrage is you don't get access to your funds for 3 to 7 months.

Imagine a scenario where you sell 1 BTC on MtGox today for $1,000 and it is $900 on Bitstamp.  You finally get your funds out in July and the price on Bitstamp is now $1500, so you can buy back 0.67 BTC.  A 33% loss is not arbitrage.   A worse alternative is the exchange fails before your withdraw is processed and you never get your funds, a 100% loss.

There is no arbitrage opportunity without (near) real time movement of funds.

[empoweoqwj]

The divergence is 20% now. Great!

Great for what? You are a statistics guy. Would you say arb between gox and btc-e is happening right now? If it was, wouldn't the prices be converging not diverging?

There is no arbitrage is you don't get access to your funds for 3 to 7 months.

Imagine a scenario where you sell 1 BTC on MtGox today for $1,000 and it is $900 on Bitstamp.  You finally get your funds out in July and the price on Bitstamp is now $1500, so you can buy back 0.67 BTC.  A 33% loss is not arbitrage.   A worse alternative is the exchange fails before your withdraw is processed and you never get your funds, a 100% loss.

There is no arbitrage opportunity without (near) real time movement of funds.

Yep. I know. But nobody listens

[komar]

The divergence is 20% now. Great!

Great for what? You are a statistics guy. Would you say arb between gox and btc-e is happening right now? If it was, wouldn't the prices be converging not diverging?

Great for dying, of course.

A big divergence between MtGox and other stocks means:

• it's too hard to withdraw fiat currency;
• people are escaping from MtGox by buying BTC and withdrawing them.

And I think there is no arbitrage currently possible between MtGox and other exchanges due to MtGox withdraw problems. And this is the reason why we have 20% divergence already.

[empoweoqwj]

The divergence is 20% now. Great!

Great for what? You are a statistics guy. Would you say arb between gox and btc-e is happening right now? If it was, wouldn't the prices be converging not diverging?

Great for dying, of course.

A big divergence between MtGox and other stocks means:

• it's too hard to withdraw fiat currency;
• people are escaping from MtGox by buying BTC and withdrawing them.

And I think there is no arbitrage currently possible between MtGox and other exchanges due to MtGox withdraw problems. And this is the reason why we have 20% divergence already.

Gox is place with lots of input still (i.e. money and coins going in) but little or no output i.e. a balloon slowly inflating - this is a real case of inflation in the bitcoin world. That is why the price keeps going up. But I'm pretty sure the balloon isn't going to deflate. It's going to go "pop" and there will be bugger all left. You guys thinking about arbing should be thinking about something more basic - just getting any coins you have in Gox out ASAP.

[JCviggen]

And what happens if bitstamps bank puts limits on the money it can transfer as well? are you going to then hope it dies next? There is a lot of dumbassery with bitcoin I swear.

This is assuming the problems at Gox are down to their bank. I think we're beyond that now. Gox can't come out and say "well lads we're terribly sorry but we don't have nearly enough currency anymore to cover all the coins being cashed out from our site" can they? Well they could, but they'd be finished.

Is it a coincidence that the Gox "banking" issues started right about the time a ****load of their funds got seized in the US?
Is it a coincidence that withdrawals are going through perfectly fine from every other exchange including those that are now bigger than Gox?
Is it a coincidence that they have tightened down the verification process, not to mention slowed it down enormously? (In April when they got swamped with signups they were posting that more staff was being hired to handle the inflow, and shortly after verification became very quick indeed - mine took 17 minutes) Now, there is only silence.

The Gox "banking" issues started before summer. I remember cancelling a withdrawal in July after 6 weeks of nothing. In more than half a year, they couldn't find a bank that can handle their volume? Why not multiple banks? Let's not kid ourselves, companies exist that have to make a heck of a lot more payments per day than crypto exchanges, and their banks don't seem to object. That's what a bank is for no? Everything is automated and on the scale of even a small bank the amount of withdrawals Gox would make is insignificant.

Long story short: Gox is most likely a sinking ship, they've ran out of excuses and they are presently in danger of runaway inflation which will lose them the last credibility they have to lose before they implode. The fact that other exchanges are ignoring the price on Gox says a lot about just how little there actually is left.

[jonanon]

I'd go as far to say that they are dead already 

[Savior]

The divergence is 20% now. Great!

Great for what? You are a statistics guy. Would you say arb between gox and btc-e is happening right now? If it was, wouldn't the prices be converging not diverging?

There is no arbitrage is you don't get access to your funds for 3 to 7 months.

Imagine a scenario where you sell 1 BTC on MtGox today for $1,000 and it is $900 on Bitstamp.  You finally get your funds out in July and the price on Bitstamp is now $1500, so you can buy back 0.67 BTC.  A 33% loss is not arbitrage.   A worse alternative is the exchange fails before your withdraw is processed and you never get your funds, a 100% loss.

There is no arbitrage opportunity without (near) real time movement of funds.

That's not how arbitrage works. What you do is sell ten bitcoin at mtgox for euro. Then at the same time you buy 10 bitcoins at bitsamp. Let's say there is a 100 euro difference. Then you earn 1000 euro, minus the fees. Then you wait 20-25 days and repeat. Arbitrage is not dependent on the bitcoins price staying the same, your doing it wrong.
Arbitrage is happening at mtgox obviously, but not enough to make up for the spread.

[empoweoqwj]

The divergence is 20% now. Great!

Great for what? You are a statistics guy. Would you say arb between gox and btc-e is happening right now? If it was, wouldn't the prices be converging not diverging?

There is no arbitrage is you don't get access to your funds for 3 to 7 months.

Imagine a scenario where you sell 1 BTC on MtGox today for $1,000 and it is $900 on Bitstamp.  You finally get your funds out in July and the price on Bitstamp is now $1500, so you can buy back 0.67 BTC.  A 33% loss is not arbitrage.   A worse alternative is the exchange fails before your withdraw is processed and you never get your funds, a 100% loss.

There is no arbitrage opportunity without (near) real time movement of funds.

That's not how arbitrage works. What you do is sell ten bitcoin at mtgox for euro. Then at the same time you buy 10 bitcoins at bitsamp. Let's say there is a 100 euro difference. Then you earn 1000 euro, minus the fees. Then you wait 20-25 days and repeat. Arbitrage is not dependent on the bitcoins price staying the same, your doing it wrong.
Arbitrage is happening at mtgox obviously, but not enough to make up for the spread.

So you are doing this right now right and making a mint? If so, why are you telling everyone how to do it?

[makoto1337]

Dealing with JPY domestically is really great on Mt. Gox. Can deposit fiat and get fiat out within an hour or so.

[rograz]

There is no arbitrage opportunity without (near) real time movement of funds.

If you have a lot of money just sitting around it's perfectly doable even with the wait time.

[Frankie]

Dealing with JPY domestically is really great on Mt. Gox. Can deposit fiat and get fiat out within an hour or so.

This used to be true-ish (verification was apparently still a b----), but is it still true?  See this thread suggesting that withdrawals are now up to three weeks: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428242.0

[empoweoqwj]

There is no arbitrage opportunity without (near) real time movement of funds.

If you have a lot of money just sitting around it's perfectly doable even with the wait time.

Nonsense. Complete nonsense.