BTC price analysis after the January 31st Deadline

[empoweoqwj]

In a way this is good news for the rest of the world because China will be left with holding worthless American fiat. They are sidelining themselves in the new global monetary revolution.

Well it's not all good. A majority of bitcoin trading still happens on chinese exchanges, and nobody is sure how these will be hit. Banks still process Yuan transactions for these exchanges ... for now. But given the open negative stance china has for bitcoin, who knows till when that will last. If that's banned too, the entire chinese market will basically move to local black markets. Not good at all. Meanwhile, russia also reveals an anti-bitcoin stance.

You are assuming the trading supposedly going on in China is 100% genuine. That's quite a big assumption. But you are right the chinese market will move towards black market. But lots of black markets exist and some do very well indeed. Where there's a will there's a way.

Indeed, there is a good possibility that the trading there is not genuine, mainly because of the suspicious volume, 0 fees, etc. But still, a black market can't possibly do as well as a proper regulated market. Especially in bringing mainstream adoption or even confidence among people.

You are right in that under current regulations, there will be no "mainstream adoption". Confidence? Not so sure about that. That's the beauty of bitcoin. It doesn't need your government's endorsement for you to have confidence in it. You just have to believe it will gain traction globally. Chinese people are perfectly capable of investing in bitcoins, and traveling outside the country to "collect their winnings"

Well, sure ... but if the government stays anti-bitcoin, you also need to have the confidence to not be caught holding bitcoin when the government makes stricter rules. You never know when they might come out and say "we're gonna hang everyone with >0.1 BTC from today" lol (god forbid)

lol. I don't think even the PRC is *that* against bitcoin.

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[thedarksun]

The question is why isnt price taking off in an uptrend? all bad enws are behind us alreayd and we have been 200dollars higher than we are right now.

[akshaybtc]

I think activity will pick up this week. I guess the bad news about Charles Shrem made this uptrend a bit more difficult, but now as the next week unfolds, if there is no huge news, we should see an uptrend.

[empoweoqwj]

I don't think anyone really cares about Charlie Shrem. The market has been moving sideways for weeks. Nothing is changing even with bad or good news. Very low volume. Quite spooky.

[phr0stbyt3]

I don't think anyone really cares about Charlie Shrem. The market has been moving sideways for weeks. Nothing is changing even with bad or good news. Very low volume. Quite spooky.

Yes but which way will it break out? I say down.

[empoweoqwj]

I don't think anyone really cares about Charlie Shrem. The market has been moving sideways for weeks. Nothing is changing even with bad or good news. Very low volume. Quite spooky.

Yes but which way will it break out? I say down.

Haha. The only important question ..... I'm looking at the market and people keep trying to pump it above $800 and it keeps failing miserably. Nobody is buying into a rally. So on that basis, I tend to agree with you. But one thing I have learned watching bitcoin price analysis is that most of it is wrong that is why everyone says "probability 60/40" lol.

The paradox in my mind is that with this current price stability, people will spend bitcoins online, commentators are starting to call it a "stable currency" (idiots!), and that will be considered "good news" and make the price take off again!

[phr0stbyt3]

I don't think anyone really cares about Charlie Shrem. The market has been moving sideways for weeks. Nothing is changing even with bad or good news. Very low volume. Quite spooky.

Yes but which way will it break out? I say down.

Haha. The only important question ..... I'm looking at the market and people keep trying to pump it above $800 and it keeps failing miserably. Nobody is buying into a rally. So on that basis, I tend to agree with you. But one thing I have learned watching bitcoin price analysis is that most of it is wrong that is why everyone says "probability 60/40" lol.

The paradox in my mind is that with this current price stability, people will spend bitcoins online, commentators are starting to call it a "stable currency" (idiots!), and that will be considered "good news" and make the price take off again!

Damn. Should have shorted!

[akshaybtc]

Damn. Should have shorted!

https://i.imgur.com/ePiuMJ4.jpg
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Shorted 710 --> 680 twice A bit late on the bear train, but still!