Fail necro is fail...
Bitcoin has clearly failed
September 12, 2011, 03:06:11 AM
Just to put things in perspective, here's what the OP might have been looking at exactly ten months ago:
And as a store of value, yes -- bitcoin was failing for most people as at the time, most of those who held bitcoins by that time were underwater versus what they paid for their coins.
Could bitcoin see another drop like that, perhaps losing half its value or more?
It could. If it happens it probably wouldn't be for the same underlying reason.
It would have to be something that would cause a huge loss of confidence again, but it probably wouldn't be because of security at a single exchange. Maybe in the U.S. FinCEN will put out a statement that Bitcoins are the same as "prepaid access" used internationally and that you cannot sell even 1 bitcoin without obtaining the identity of the customer. Maybe an evil ASIC engineer will be first to come up with a couple dozen Thash/s of capacity and successfully double spend transactions that were previously confirmed six or more confirmations back. Maybe the last patch Tuesday from Microsoft included a few lines of code which will, at a future date, send the Bitcoin/wallet.dat to the rogue employee's target.
We just don't know what happens in the future.
What we do know:
Bitcoin's security is better today than it was ten months ago. Bitcoin's ecosystem then was not anywhere near as developed as it is today.
What we can presume:
Bitcoin's security will be better ten months from now than it is today (e.g., functional multisignature transactions). Bitcoin's ecosystem will be much more developed ten months from now than it is today.