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Author Topic: Miners ned a price of 300k at next halving to stay even?  (Read 97 times)
mike4001
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June 01, 2018, 10:06:24 PM
 #1

Hi,

I did some calculations - maybe you can tell me if I am wrong because it sounds like it ...

1) Next halving is in 104482 blocks => this is 51 difficulty adjustments (104482 / 2016) - https://fork.lol/
2) Difficulty rises by about 7,41% each adjustment (I took the average from the beginning of 2017 until today) - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
3) Current difficulty is 4306949573981 => After these 51 adjustments (* 1,0741^51) it is 164987230632007

If I put this into https://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1320.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=164987230632007.00000000&r=6.25000000&er=300000.00000000&hc=0.00

With Antminer S9 data and 10 cents / kWh I would need a BTC price of about 300.000 USD just to break even ...

Probably the difficulty rise might stop but .... Where am I wrong ;-) ?

PS: Even with a difficulty increase of only about 4% we need 60k to stay even.
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BitcoinNewbie15
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June 01, 2018, 11:59:42 PM
 #2

Hi,

I did some calculations - maybe you can tell me if I am wrong because it sounds like it ...

1) Next halving is in 104482 blocks => this is 51 difficulty adjustments (104482 / 2016) - https://fork.lol/
2) Difficulty rises by about 7,41% each adjustment (I took the average from the beginning of 2017 until today) - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
3) Current difficulty is 4306949573981 => After these 51 adjustments (* 1,0741^51) it is 164987230632007

If I put this into https://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1320.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=164987230632007.00000000&r=6.25000000&er=300000.00000000&hc=0.00

With Antminer S9 data and 10 cents / kWh I would need a BTC price of about 300.000 USD just to break even ...

Probably the difficulty rise might stop but .... Where am I wrong ;-) ?

PS: Even with a difficulty increase of only about 4% we need 60k to stay even.

The math does seem to check out. However, I don't think hashrate will continue to increase like it has been. Im sure it will start to level off really soon here. But hey, $60k a pop? Ill take it lol.
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June 02, 2018, 12:32:56 AM
 #3

Difficulty has fallen on numerous occasions. Nothing rises forever but it looks like Bitmain is having a good stab at least. By that point there may well be better machinery and cheaper power deals but perhaps the really big miners are out to drive the smaller ones into the dirt even if it costs them money in the short term.

Regardless of that mining will sort itself out and always has. No one else need give a shit about the miners. Their costs are their problem. The algorithm will level things out to a palatable level no matter what.

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June 02, 2018, 01:52:15 AM
 #4

Hi,

I did some calculations - maybe you can tell me if I am wrong because it sounds like it ...

1) Next halving is in 104482 blocks => this is 51 difficulty adjustments (104482 / 2016) - https://fork.lol/
2) Difficulty rises by about 7,41% each adjustment (I took the average from the beginning of 2017 until today) - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
3) Current difficulty is 4306949573981 => After these 51 adjustments (* 1,0741^51) it is 164987230632007

If I put this into https://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1320.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=164987230632007.00000000&r=6.25000000&er=300000.00000000&hc=0.00

With Antminer S9 data and 10 cents / kWh I would need a BTC price of about 300.000 USD just to break even ...

Probably the difficulty rise might stop but .... Where am I wrong ;-) ?

PS: Even with a difficulty increase of only about 4% we need 60k to stay even.

The math does seem to check out. However, I don't think hashrate will continue to increase like it has been. Im sure it will start to level off really soon here. But hey, $60k a pop? Ill take it lol.

Are you a miner? I reckon an opinion of a trusted miner in the forum is badly needed to verify mike4001's calculations.

You should delete your post or add a warning for people to be careful in listening to you.

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June 02, 2018, 03:43:34 AM
 #5

2) Difficulty rises by about 7,41% each adjustment (I took the average from the beginning of 2017 until today) - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

this is where you are wrong. difficulty is not something that always rises like that. you should know that difficulty is rising and falling based on the hash rate that comes in and goes out of bitcoin. if more miners come in the hash rate will increase and difficulty will rise and vise versa.

so when do more miners come in? when price goes up and mining bitcoin becomes a lot more profitable. check out the hash rate chart:
the gradient is not the same in these 3 steps that i chose on the chart.
α= first one which is when price is still below $2000 and a lot of fear exists about it crashing down hard back to $700 because of the FUD so there isn't that much increase in the mining power also mining profit increased but not by that much.
β= price goes to $5000 and that ballpark so there is a bigger increase rate of hashrate and difficulty because a lot more miners are now coming in thanks to the increase in mining profit.
γ= is the biggest rate because of the biggest price rise falls in this area which covers going from $5000 to $10k (2x rise) and another 2x rise to $20k



you see you can not extrapolate the data like this. unless you also extrapolate the price data too like this:
hashrate increased about 14x last year and price increased 22x last year so in 2 years price would be $440,000!!!

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June 02, 2018, 05:12:15 AM
 #6

I thought that this sub-forum is only about BTC price speculations,now we can speculate about the mining difficulty and hashrate. Grin
OP,what do you mean,when you say "we"?Are you a BTC miner?
Don`t trust that Coinwarz mining calculator,the mining difficulty decreases,when the number of miners goes down.

mike4001
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June 02, 2018, 06:17:59 AM
 #7

No, I am no miner

@pooya87: You are probably right that the hashrate will slow down at some point. At the moment we are well in the green (we are also expected to get an increase of almost 18% this time (!!!)

But actually I made this topic from a price perspective.

You could argue that

a) the hashrate will follow the price ("The prices rises so more people want their share of the cake") or
b) the price will follow the hashrate ("Miners won't sell their coins below production costs")

But when looking at your chart then probably a) is the right one and b) is very unlikely to happen.
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June 02, 2018, 09:15:08 AM
 #8

Hi,

I did some calculations - maybe you can tell me if I am wrong because it sounds like it ...

1) Next halving is in 104482 blocks => this is 51 difficulty adjustments (104482 / 2016) - https://fork.lol/
2) Difficulty rises by about 7,41% each adjustment (I took the average from the beginning of 2017 until today) - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
3) Current difficulty is 4306949573981 => After these 51 adjustments (* 1,0741^51) it is 164987230632007

If I put this into https://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1320.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=164987230632007.00000000&r=6.25000000&er=300000.00000000&hc=0.00

With Antminer S9 data and 10 cents / kWh I would need a BTC price of about 300.000 USD just to break even ...

Probably the difficulty rise might stop but .... Where am I wrong ;-) ?

PS: Even with a difficulty increase of only about 4% we need 60k to stay even.

The math does seem to check out. However, I don't think hashrate will continue to increase like it has been. Im sure it will start to level off really soon here. But hey, $60k a pop? Ill take it lol.

I dont think it will start leveling, instead i expect a new generation of asics to come out and boost the hashrate through the roof. I dont expect it to level out anytime soon. We will see. My price guess in 2022. is 50000 per bitcoin

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June 02, 2018, 05:43:40 PM
 #9

2) Difficulty rises by about 7,41% each adjustment (I took the average from the beginning of 2017 until today) - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Here is your main problem. Difficulty was increasing because of Bitcoin price increase. Many wanted to mine Bitcoin since was so much profit doing so. So hard rate keep increasing and with that also difficulty.  You should at least take longer period of time for difficulty parameter. Minimum Jan 2014 so you take one whole cycle at least.

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June 03, 2018, 04:44:09 AM
 #10

2) Difficulty rises by about 7,41% each adjustment (I took the average from the beginning of 2017 until today) - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Here is your main problem. Difficulty was increasing because of Bitcoin price increase. Many wanted to mine Bitcoin since was so much profit doing so. So hard rate keep increasing and with that also difficulty.  You should at least take longer period of time for difficulty parameter. Minimum Jan 2014 so you take one whole cycle at least.
When Bitcoin was crashing though after peaking at 19k the hash rate was still increasing. Throughout this whole bear market of 2018 the hashrate has been rising.  It will not continue to rise, but it shows that hashrate can still rise even if the price is dropping.
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June 03, 2018, 05:01:30 AM
 #11

2) Difficulty rises by about 7,41% each adjustment (I took the average from the beginning of 2017 until today) - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Here is your main problem. Difficulty was increasing because of Bitcoin price increase. Many wanted to mine Bitcoin since was so much profit doing so. So hard rate keep increasing and with that also difficulty.  You should at least take longer period of time for difficulty parameter. Minimum Jan 2014 so you take one whole cycle at least.
When Bitcoin was crashing though after peaking at 19k the hash rate was still increasing. Throughout this whole bear market of 2018 the hashrate has been rising.  It will not continue to rise, but it shows that hashrate can still rise even if the price is dropping.

my theory is that it has been rising slowly because of shipping time!
when price went up, mining because profitable so many new people decided to get into mining. but when they buy mining equipment from Bitmain it takes a long time (at least t hat is what i heard) people report it has taken even 2-3 months to get their miners. for example those who bought Antminer when price was $6000 in November 2017 got their miners on January 2018 when price was $20000

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June 03, 2018, 09:39:49 AM
 #12

...
my theory is that it has been rising slowly because of shipping time!
when price went up, mining because profitable so many new people decided to get into mining. but when they buy mining equipment from Bitmain it takes a long time (at least t hat is what i heard) people report it has taken even 2-3 months to get their miners. for example those who bought Antminer when price was $6000 in November 2017 got their miners on January 2018 when price was $20000

Yes, the delivery time for a new miner was really several months during this time.
Some people were even trying to make a profit by selling miners they
bought for themselves at a mark-up to other interested people.

Instead of using the hardware to actually mine BTC they just used it as
an arbitrage opportunity. In a way this isn´t even stupid, because you take out
nearly all of the risk of your equipment losing its value (due to better hardware
coming out) or getting stolen while still making a healthy profit.



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June 03, 2018, 03:15:40 PM
 #13

my theory is that it has been rising slowly because of shipping time!

I don't think retail miners count for much in the current mining environment. If you're waiting for someone else to make your miner for you you're probably on your way to being toast.

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June 03, 2018, 04:08:13 PM
 #14

2) Difficulty rises by about 7,41% each adjustment (I took the average from the beginning of 2017 until today) - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Here is your main problem. Difficulty was increasing because of Bitcoin price increase. Many wanted to mine Bitcoin since was so much profit doing so. So hard rate keep increasing and with that also difficulty.  You should at least take longer period of time for difficulty parameter. Minimum Jan 2014 so you take one whole cycle at least.
When Bitcoin was crashing though after peaking at 19k the hash rate was still increasing. Throughout this whole bear market of 2018 the hashrate has been rising.  It will not continue to rise, but it shows that hashrate can still rise even if the price is dropping.
not too bad, maybe after rising to $ 19k the price will fall back, but in the next surge the price will reach $ 25k. the market is in green and I think it will continue.

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June 04, 2018, 05:04:11 PM
 #15

2) Difficulty rises by about 7,41% each adjustment (I took the average from the beginning of 2017 until today) - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Here is your main problem. Difficulty was increasing because of Bitcoin price increase. Many wanted to mine Bitcoin since was so much profit doing so. So hard rate keep increasing and with that also difficulty.  You should at least take longer period of time for difficulty parameter. Minimum Jan 2014 so you take one whole cycle at least.
When Bitcoin was crashing though after peaking at 19k the hash rate was still increasing. Throughout this whole bear market of 2018 the hashrate has been rising.  It will not continue to rise, but it shows that hashrate can still rise even if the price is dropping.


Ofcourse it can still rise, but for sure less then when price extremely grow.  I stay with what I said, he should monitor one whole Bitcoin bubble cycle. from start of 2014 till today to calculate average difficulty growth.

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