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Author Topic: Dead Cat Bounce ??!!  (Read 8338 times)
cbeast
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October 07, 2011, 11:47:34 PM
 #41

BTC is tanking. Has been since June, no reason to think it's going to change. Ignore what you want, doesn't make you right.

Define tanking. Where is the bottom?

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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October 08, 2011, 12:02:16 AM
 #42

BTC is tanking. Has been since June, no reason to think it's going to change. Ignore what you want, doesn't make you right.

Define tanking. Where is the bottom?

Honestly? Parity. Maybe just above. Seriously, the existence of BTC as a useful currency depends on the following, in order from most important to least:

1) General Public interest and usage
2) Stable, safe, transparent exchanges
3) Black market usage
4) Belief in ideology
5) Speculation

1) has run, probably because of 2, 5, and just that it's not convenient enough. For them, the fad is over until Amazon, their credit cards, and actual banks bother to think about BTC.

3) will cut and run as soon as 2) is established.
The groupies at 4) are tiny. TINY.

These are your fundamentals, and the last 3 months are a perfect example of where everything is headed: 1) is gone, 2) never existed, so you're left with 3) and 4), while 5) will bail as soon as there's nothing left.

I didn't even get to the part about what most miners will do when it gets more expensive to mine than not.

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October 08, 2011, 12:39:22 AM
 #43

BTC is tanking. Has been since June, no reason to think it's going to change. Ignore what you want, doesn't make you right.

Define tanking. Where is the bottom?

Honestly? Parity. Maybe just above. Seriously, the existence of BTC as a useful currency depends on the following, in order from most important to least:

1) General Public interest and usage
2) Stable, safe, transparent exchanges
3) Black market usage
4) Belief in ideology
5) Speculation

1) has run, probably because of 2, 5, and just that it's not convenient enough. For them, the fad is over until Amazon, their credit cards, and actual banks bother to think about BTC.

3) will cut and run as soon as 2) is established.
The groupies at 4) are tiny. TINY.

These are your fundamentals, and the last 3 months are a perfect example of where everything is headed: 1) is gone, 2) never existed, so you're left with 3) and 4), while 5) will bail as soon as there's nothing left.

I didn't even get to the part about what most miners will do when it gets more expensive to mine than not.

I'm not sure I have seen any existence yet of 1, let alone running. 3 is a strawman used by fearmongers, like criminals have never used cash lol. 2 will take time, Rome wasn't built in a day. 4 is only important for developers =p. 5 is 34 million USD strong.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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October 08, 2011, 12:47:12 AM
 #44

Not anymore!

I'm sorry, that was a joke. This is not:



Let's give it some context, shall we?  Here's a year chart.. not so much "dead" as it is "correcting".

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October 08, 2011, 02:48:58 AM
 #45

Sold every coin at $4.6 (still have 5 BTC in my wallet). Probably should continue to sell since I'm a miner.

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October 08, 2011, 03:05:55 AM
 #46

Sold every coin at $4.6 (still have 5 BTC in my wallet). Probably should continue to sell since I'm a miner.
Hold them imo.
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October 08, 2011, 03:29:36 AM
 #47

I won't get into anything else, however addressing just one point, it won't become more expensive to mine than not. This is simply because if it does, then miners will quit, thus balancing out the difficulty and keeping things equal. If it becomes abnormally profitable to mine, then more miners will hop on, balancing out the difficulty again and keeping things equal.

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October 08, 2011, 04:41:55 AM
 #48

agreed. that's why I just sold another btc. Will transfer the remaining 4 BTC to continue to sell.

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October 08, 2011, 05:27:44 AM
 #49

Unless we get new HUGE-(like in 10 million dollars) investment-(like in buying BTC to rescue it ) .. it going to get done more and more.. maybe it will be worth of

0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000001


So technically it wont be DEAD but umm let us say you can buy the whole network and Satoshi's mama for 10 bucks! Smiley
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October 08, 2011, 06:21:21 AM
 #50

Weekend effect in progress.  If it flatlines at 4.1 without appreciable hash power loss on deepbit I may risk bottom fishing for coins to flip into expected rallies to 4.5.   Should be safe-ish enough, looks like this month's bloodbath has run its course.  It'll take a month for miners to stockpile again.

If the difficulty (and network utility/security) is plummeting I'm definitely not stepping up to catch knives.  The bulls are running their keyboards well enough but failing to throw sufficient good money after bad.

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October 08, 2011, 06:34:20 AM
 #51

I won't get into anything else, however addressing just one point, it won't become more expensive to mine than not. This is simply because if it does, then miners will quit, thus balancing out the difficulty and keeping things equal. If it becomes abnormally profitable to mine, then more miners will hop on, balancing out the difficulty again and keeping things equal.

Have you looked at NMC once mining power fled?  TL;DR - about 5 months for difficulty to adjust down to match the current number of miners.  We ran NMC difficulty to 100k in about 3 days of profitable mining, and the remaining chumps are going to be slogging along for nearly half a year of mining at a loss to make up for it.  They'll be done around February with some luck.

Any number of people could do a 51% attack on namecoin right now, this very minute.

Even if 10% of the current miners have free electricity it won't rescue bitcoin if prices go sufficiently lower than cost to generate at 1.5M difficulty for the remaining 90%.   They're not going to buy bitcoin because it's cheaper to buy than mine, most will shut down and/or sell their rigs and forget about the whole thing.  $1.25 and you can stick a fork in it.  At $4.11 the pyramid is already wobbling pretty hard.
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October 08, 2011, 10:27:25 AM
 #52

I'm not sure I have seen any existence yet of 1, let alone running. 3 is a strawman used by fearmongers, like criminals have never used cash lol. 2 will take time, Rome wasn't built in a day. 4 is only important for developers =p. 5 is 34 million USD strong.

1) imsaguy's chart above should tell you that the public peak was months ago. Google trends, meme behavior, etc.: BTC will not catch on without the general public enjoying BTC like they do USD/EUR. 3) I'm saying that if the RUB is 3rd to USD and EUR in BTC exchange transaction volume, BTC has a lot to offer in anonymity, black market, and laundering. 2) is not about time, it's about adoption. I'm involved with exchanges, and if you think security isn't an issue for the non-public like me (my bank, CC, all my financial life has enormous protections in current law), I'm including my risk of major exchanges getting hacked/stealing my BTC. Sorry, but if you read these forums regularly, security should worry you. You and the rest of the forum posters are 4): blind hope on the future of BTC based on failed libertarian principles. 5) keeps you going only on swings, whether its $25-$30 or $1-$1.01. Activity != viability.

Let's give it some context, shall we?  Here's a year chart.. not so much "dead" as it is "correcting".

Yes! Thanks for the chart. Maybe my parity correction is wrong, but I sincerely believe the true value of bitcoin is represented in my previous post. There is no up from where we are.

Have you looked at NMC once mining power fled?  TL;DR - about 5 months for difficulty to adjust down to match the current number of miners.  We ran NMC difficulty to 100k in about 3 days of profitable mining, and the remaining chumps are going to be slogging along for nearly half a year of mining at a loss to make up for it.  They'll be done around February with some luck.

Any number of people could do a 51% attack on namecoin right now, this very minute.

Even if 10% of the current miners have free electricity it won't rescue bitcoin if prices go sufficiently lower than cost to generate at 1.5M difficulty for the remaining 90%.   They're not going to buy bitcoin because it's cheaper to buy than mine, most will shut down and/or sell their rigs and forget about the whole thing.  $1.25 and you can stick a fork in it.  At $4.11 the pyramid is already wobbling pretty hard.

All of this.

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October 08, 2011, 12:05:35 PM
 #53

The price will bottom out and it will be above $1, that's something I can bet any amount on. Unless the fundamentals of legality, reliability and functionality are somehow broken. Even considering a price of below $1 is currently ridiculous. Simply because there are multiple players in the market who have the money to buy every coin in existence, if they were sold at that price level. And there would be hundreds if not thousands of smaller players like me trying to buy anything they can.

So for me the bottom has to happen in between $1 and the current price of around $4. Personally I see it bottoming out at $3.x, because the closer we get to $1, more impossible it'll be for the price to go down further.

It's idiotic to think of this situation like going back to the days when the price was at $1 levels last time. Bitcoin economy, the players involved, the amount of people who know about it, are all indicators that have risen hundreds if not thousands of percents from that time. Even taking into account the decline we've seen in recent months. And not all indicators have declined, for example the amount of merchants in the economy has actually gone up.


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October 08, 2011, 12:47:08 PM
 #54

So you think bitcoin will be saved by people buying them all up and hoarding them?  If price drops much lower most people are gonna forget about bitcoins and keep an eye out for the next big thing. 

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October 08, 2011, 12:53:05 PM
 #55

So you think bitcoin will be saved by people buying them all up and hoarding them?  If price drops much lower most people are gonna forget about bitcoins and keep an eye out for the next big thing. 

We will NEVER FORGET bitcoin!!!!

NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER...!!!!!  *sob*

NEVER FORGET!!!!!!!!

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October 08, 2011, 02:09:09 PM
 #56

For the BTC price to rise we just need another politician talking about Silk Road. The junkies will buy coins and the price will fly. Yay!  Grin

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October 08, 2011, 02:59:35 PM
 #57

I talk to many friends of mine about the Bitcoin trade analysis (without saying it is the bitcoin ... I just say it is an X stock). And they all say it is a well known trade price chart called "dead cat bounce".


Any one can help me explain the expression in simple English please?


and please do not take me wrong , I am a bit coin fan (well at least as long as it exists!!)   Cheesy.


Thanks!

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October 08, 2011, 11:35:20 PM
 #58

For the BTC price to rise we just need another politician talking about Silk Road. The junkies will buy coins and the price will fly. Yay!  Grin


Not trying to be negative, but wont the dealers sell most of the coins again? Of course it's still good for bitcoin in general, just not for the price short-term.

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October 09, 2011, 03:05:34 PM
 #59

For the BTC price to rise we just need another politician talking about Silk Road. The junkies will buy coins and the price will fly. Yay!  Grin


Not trying to be negative, but wont the dealers sell most of the coins again? Of course it's still good for bitcoin in general, just not for the price short-term.

No kidding.
1.They wouldnt bother with GPG/OTC
2.They wouldnt try to build forum rep to buy/sell
3.They would Need their money asap

So they would use Automated selling systems. Wich undercut the market, Wich in turn drops the value

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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=857670.0 GAWminers and associated things are not to be trusted, Especially the "mineral" exchange
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October 09, 2011, 04:11:15 PM
 #60

So you think bitcoin will be saved by people buying them all up and hoarding them?
 
In part, yes. One of the main functions of Bitcoin from an economic perspective is as a store of value, it's an inflation protection of sort. This is great for anyone wanting to find a place for very long term savings that will be safe and will hold their value. It's difficult to think about this when the price is so dominated by speculation right now but for the long term this is a big thing for Bitcoin. And if the price is close to $1, there really isn't that much risk in simply buying everything (as long as the fundamentals are still solid).

Quote
If price drops much lower most people are gonna forget about bitcoins and keep an eye out for the next big thing.
No, most speculators would forget about Bitcoins. And for the very long term this might even be good. As long as Bitcoin is functional it'll have a growing support base especially in the radical liberal camp.

What is interesting and I do think this is a bit of a problem, is security. Reliability and functionality are the most important fundamentals besides legality (these are related though) and if the amount of miners decline to low numbers it'll make the network much easier to attack.

So from this perspective I don't really want to see the price go super low even temporarily, because it could be a risk for the whole network. Right now we're still at high hash numbers so it's very safe, but this could change if the price goes super low. But I really doubt it, for example at a price of $1 the whole Bitcoin economy would be worth a maximum of 7 million dollars which is so low of a number that we need a fundamental decline far greater than we've seen so far to justify that number.

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