Eligius: 0% Fee BTC, 105% PPS NMC, No registration, CPPSRB

[mdude77]

All the Bitcoin protocol cares about when re-targeting the difficulty is how close we were to 10 minutes per block since the last difficulty change.  Anything before that is really irrelevant.

Irrelevant at the most technical level, sure.  But irrelevant on a fundamental level?  Hardly. 

I still disagree.  If you include anything prior to the last difficulty change, your estimate is going to be off because it includes data that the Bitcoin protocol doesn't care about.

Your statement about hashrate determines average block time is sort of correct.  Luck is a factor as well, which is why all pools can suddenly stop finding blocks for hours on end.  Granted that shouldn't mean too much at the end of the difficulty period change, but it does influence it.  And, as I believe you stated as well, at the end of the day what's used to determine the next difficulty is how long it took to solve X number of blocks since the last change compared to 1 per 10 minutes.

Let's say the difficulty has just changed 10 blocks ago.... less than 2 hours.  Your app can rely on either the last 9 blocks, or you can rely on a larger dataset telling you that the network hashrate has averaged 280,000-290,000 TH/s during the last month.  Which do you think is going to give you a better estimate?  If your answer is just "there will be wild swings during the first few blocks after a difficulty re-target" then your app should simply not provide an estimate during that time rather than look like a fool giving an answer based on a tiny sample size.  What if the first block is found 10 seconds after the difficulty adjustment, and your app shows a 5000% projected increase?  You've got to at least have some sanity checks in there.

I will agree with you there about sample size.  I should put an indicator in there about the difficulty changing within the last day, or something, so therefore the sample size isn't large enough to produce a good indication of next change.

Regards,

M

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[organofcorti]

All the Bitcoin protocol cares about when re-targeting the difficulty is how close we were to 10 minutes per block since the last difficulty change.  Anything before that is really irrelevant.

Irrelevant at the most technical level, sure.  But irrelevant on a fundamental level?  Hardly. 

I still disagree.  If you include anything prior to the last difficulty change, your estimate is going to be off because it includes data that the Bitcoin protocol doesn't care about.

Your statement about hashrate determines average block time is sort of correct.  Luck is a factor as well, which is why all pools can suddenly stop finding blocks for hours on end.  Granted that shouldn't mean too much at the end of the difficulty period change, but it does influence it.  And, as I believe you stated as well, at the end of the day what's used to determine the next difficulty is how long it took to solve X number of blocks since the last change compared to 1 per 10 minutes.

Let's say the difficulty has just changed 10 blocks ago.... less than 2 hours.  Your app can rely on either the last 9 blocks, or you can rely on a larger dataset telling you that the network hashrate has averaged 280,000-290,000 TH/s during the last month.  Which do you think is going to give you a better estimate?  If your answer is just "there will be wild swings during the first few blocks after a difficulty re-target" then your app should simply not provide an estimate during that time rather than look like a fool giving an answer based on a tiny sample size.  What if the first block is found 10 seconds after the difficulty adjustment, and your app shows a 5000% projected increase?  You've got to at least have some sanity checks in there.

I will agree with you there about sample size.  I should put an indicator in there about the difficulty changing within the last day, or something, so therefore the sample size isn't large enough to produce a good indication of next change.

Regards,

M

mdude77, you're correct in that data from before the last retarget isn't used by the protocol for the current retarget. However, rates of change in network hashrate can be fairly constant for weeks or even months, and weekly average hashrates can be quite predictable.

When you're predicting a new difficulty at the next retarget, you are in effect predicting the average hashrate between retargets. Since the rate of change in the network hashrate changes very slowly, hashrates from weeks previous to the last retarget. The trick is in using a forecasting methodology that will not overfit and won't create massive forest confidence intervals.

Personally, I use exponential smoothing to forecast the change in hashrate until the 2016th block since the last retarget, based on the last month or so. I has been fairly reliable, although I'm sure there are better methods.

[kenj]

is namecoin working again

I received a payout recently.

M

Hello
How come that i never seen a namecoin payout since I started mining at Eligius??
I started about three month´s ago with app 1TH/s, and two month´s with merged mining.
And my signature was fine so no probs there.

[kenj]

When exactly does an inactive get paid? I mean a few seconds is now over a week which is past the inactive 6 days aka been inactive for 12+ days.
no need for replies about oh its only a dollar, why dont u donate it etc etc, if it says it is going to pay it out then pay it out.

 The formula to determine inactive works enough to know it should be entering the queue but maybe the code to actually enter it was never added. I could just point a miner at it to hit the threshold but why when it says inactive will get paid after 6 days. It has been 12+.

Estimated Position in Payout Queue
Approximately 0.00038946 BTC remaining to enter payout queue. If you remain inactive, and the pool does not pay towards any of your shelved shares, then you will be eligible for a payout of your balance (which is less than the automatic payout threshold of 0.01048576 BTC) in a manual payout no sooner than a few seconds from now.

Note: Your minimum payout was customized to 0.01048576 BTC under 'My Eligius'.

I think he want an answer.

[kenj]

Hi wizkid057

How is distributing that 200 BTC to miners going?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=441465.msg7282674#msg7282674

My original plan was to return the coins we have held in offline storage to the rightful owners— the miners who were submitting real work and were affected by the withholding attack— by paying towards shelved shares accrued during that time period (doing this is non-trivial due to security measures in place). This is still my intention...

Or is this changed. Might have missed it. My problem is that my address at that time was compromised. And looking all the time if something is there is a bit stressful... So knowing when this will happen would help... Changing address that I had would also help...

This guy to.

[Grix]

What is going on, is this a bug in the stats page or is my miner not operating? Notice the balance graph, it's all over the place and why would it reward me for the last block if my miner was down?

[Lucko]

Hi again wizkid057

It will soon be 6 months... We could at lest get an answer is you still plan to distribute BTC to miners... Any idea when or will be used in some other way?

Regards

Hi wizkid057

How is distributing that 200 BTC to miners going?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=441465.msg7282674#msg7282674

My original plan was to return the coins we have held in offline storage to the rightful owners— the miners who were submitting real work and were affected by the withholding attack— by paying towards shelved shares accrued during that time period (doing this is non-trivial due to security measures in place). This is still my intention...

Or is this changed. Might have missed it. My problem is that my address at that time was compromised. And looking all the time if something is there is a bit stressful... So knowing when this will happen would help... Changing address that I had would also help...

[Biffa]

19 hours! Come on! 

[Biffa]

*phew* someone pass the rubber ring 

[RoadStress]

19 hours! Come on! 

I wonder if saying "block withholding" here is equal to saying "bomb" in an airplane

[RealMalatesta]

19 hours! Come on! 

This "baby" kicked Eligius temporarily out of the pool-charts:
https://blockchain.info/de/pools?timespan=24hrs
Don't remember when I've seen this the last time...

[Biffa]

19 hours! Come on! 

This "baby" kicked Eligius temporarily out of the pool-charts:
https://blockchain.info/de/pools?timespan=24hrs
Don't remember when I've seen this the last time...

Here we go again... 12 hours and counting 

[RealMalatesta]

19 hours! Come on! 

This "baby" kicked Eligius temporarily out of the pool-charts:
https://blockchain.info/de/pools?timespan=24hrs
Don't remember when I've seen this the last time...

Here we go again... 12 hours and counting 

My electricity bill carries me away...

[mdude77]

No one complains when we get back to back blocks...

M

[Biffa]

No one complains when we get back to back blocks...

M

That would just be silly

[mdude77]

No one complains when we get back to back blocks...

M

That would just be silly

So is complaining about bad luck.

M

[Biffa]

No one complains when we get back to back blocks...

M

That would just be silly

So is complaining about bad luck.

M

No that's just human nature, complaining about good luck would be psychopathic

[mdude77]

No one complains when we get back to back blocks...

M

That would just be silly

So is complaining about bad luck.

M

No that's just human nature, complaining about good luck would be psychopathic

Don't forget, due the nature of CPPSRB, you will get paid for close to 100% without NMC.  All those shares we're submitting now are being shelved.. we'll get them back.

M

[RealMalatesta]

15 hours, 19 hours, now 16 - I understand that a pool will have periods with bad luck. But this bad?

[btcmner]

15 hours, 19 hours, now 16 - I understand that a pool will have periods with bad luck. But this bad?

Well, it used to be worse, at times... 
Just be patient, rain is always followed by nice weather.