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Poll
Question: Will we see BTC at 1 $ in the next few weeks?
yes - 18 (13.5%)
no - 78 (58.6%)
2$ is going to be the bottom - 23 (17.3%)
it will go under 1$ - 3 (2.3%)
it will go under 0.50$ - 11 (8.3%)
Total Voters: 132

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Author Topic: Will we see BTC at 1$ in the next few weeks?  (Read 2752 times)
adamstgBit
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September 16, 2011, 03:01:36 AM
 #1

Will we see BTC at 1$ in the next few weeks?

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grod
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September 16, 2011, 03:07:37 AM
 #2

$1.25 is the bottom as long as difficulty is over 1.5 mil.   If difficulty nosedives a la namecoin there is no bottom.
bulanula
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September 16, 2011, 09:52:18 AM
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$1.25 is the bottom as long as difficulty is over 1.5 mil.   If difficulty nosedives a la namecoin there is no bottom.


Total BS. Can you backup your claim please because ATM it sounds like nonsense. Price is NOT linked to difficulty.
walidzohair
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September 16, 2011, 11:26:49 AM
 #4

the poll should be modified to under "0.000000000000000001" Cheesy
arnoldrimmer
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September 16, 2011, 12:17:09 PM
 #5

Just let us talk about Silk Road again!!
P4man
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September 16, 2011, 12:29:32 PM
 #6

$1.25 is the bottom as long as difficulty is over 1.5 mil.   If difficulty nosedives a la namecoin there is no bottom.

Nonsense. The difficulty is -indirectly- influenced by the BTC trading price, not vice versa. BTC price is not influenced by the number of miners or difficulty at all; the number of BTCs created is constant regardless. The opposite is true, if bitcoin value goes down, more people will find their mining not profitable, stop mining and therefore difficulty will go down to. The same happens when bitcoin prices go up, although there is a ceiling, the number of miner rigs is not unlimited.  Either way, none of this influence BTC price.

Thats not say there is a bottom; because there isnt. Current bitcoin price is 99% speculation and 1% demand for actual trade (most of which is probably drugs). Until that changes and bitcoin becomes a real currency used for trade, there is no bottom. If it does over time become a real alternative to paypal&co, then there is no ceiling. Anything inbetween is pure speculation, guessing, hoping and fearing.

grod
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September 16, 2011, 02:18:37 PM
 #7

Cost to produce has some bearing on bitcoin exchange rate.   When it's trading at $32 and cost to produce is sub-$1 people go long through mining operations.  Not much new meat will direct buy.  When it's trading significantly below power cost some % of miners may sell rigs to buy directly.  New meat will direct buy.

Of course it's speculation.  There's just more than one way to play.
Jixtreme
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September 16, 2011, 02:42:53 PM
 #8

the poll should be modified to under "0.000000000000000001" Cheesy

Fail:

Bitcoin is inherently only divisible to 8 decimal places.
Grinder
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September 16, 2011, 03:46:55 PM
 #9

When it's trading significantly below power cost some % of miners may sell rigs to buy directly.
That creates way too much overhead. Optimists will just stop mining and hope for better times, and pessimists will sell the rig and never think about bitcoins again.
P4man
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September 16, 2011, 03:49:44 PM
 #10

Cost to produce has some bearing on bitcoin exchange rate.   When it's trading at $32 and cost to produce is sub-$1 people go long through mining operations.  Not much new meat will direct buy.  When it's trading significantly below power cost some % of miners may sell rigs to buy directly.  New meat will direct buy.

Doesnt make sense to me. You say mining at good profitability would somehow satisfy a demand for bitcoins and that would be different if mining is not profitable, it  doesnt matter how many people mine with how many rigs, the rate at which they are produced remains constant. That miners would buy low is no different than anyone else buying low.

proudhon
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September 16, 2011, 04:07:34 PM
 #11

the poll should be modified to under "0.000000000000000001" Cheesy

Fail:

Bitcoin is inherently only divisible to 8 decimal places.

I'm quite sure I've heard Gavin say that divisibility to 8 decimal places is not inherent to the protocol and could be extended if the need arose.  Granted, it's difficult to imagine there ever being a need for more than ~2 quadrillion units.  I'll see if I can dig up a source for you...
kjj
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September 16, 2011, 04:33:54 PM
 #12

the poll should be modified to under "0.000000000000000001" Cheesy

Fail:

Bitcoin is inherently only divisible to 8 decimal places.

I'm quite sure I've heard Gavin say that divisibility to 8 decimal places is not inherent to the protocol and could be extended if the need arose.  Granted, it's difficult to imagine there ever being a need for more than ~2 quadrillion units.  I'll see if I can dig up a source for you...

The current version of the protocol is hard coded to 8 places, so adding more places isn't super simple, but it certainly is possible.  I fully expect that we will upgrade from 64 bits to 128 for technical reasons long before it becomes economically desirable.

p2pcoin: a USB/CD/PXE p2pool miner - 1N8ZXx2cuMzqBYSK72X4DAy1UdDbZQNPLf - todo
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Grinder
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September 16, 2011, 06:13:07 PM
 #13

There is no point in adding more bits. There can only be a certain amount of transactions in a block, and that forces miners to either charge a fee for all transfers or filter out the ones that are very small because of spam attacks. Either way there is no point in trying to transfer very small amounts.
istar
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September 16, 2011, 06:35:11 PM
 #14

I expect it to take some time.

But as christmas with christmas expenses and holiday approaches and people have other things to care about. Price will go down.

Bitcoins - Because we should not pay to use our money
Jixtreme
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September 16, 2011, 07:55:39 PM
 #15

Exactly like last Dec thru Feb...
Fjordbit
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September 16, 2011, 09:53:24 PM
 #16

A drop from $5 to $1 will take a similar change as a drop from $20 to $4, in otherwords, it will take at least a few months to do it, not 3 or 4 weeks.
Nagle
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September 16, 2011, 11:47:52 PM
 #17

A drop from $5 to $1 will take a similar change as a drop from $20 to $4, in otherwords, it will take at least a few months to do it, not 3 or 4 weeks.
One would expect that. But that's not what Bitcoin has been doing. It's been declining linearly for the last 3 months, at $4 per month. 


Obviously that can't go on, since the price would go below 0 some time in late October. The endgame isn't clear. It will really be over when the exchanges shut down due to lack of sufficient commission revenue.


nmat
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September 17, 2011, 12:15:19 AM
 #18

It will really be over when the exchanges shut down due to lack of sufficient commission revenue.

I don't think that is going to happen soon (at least not as soon as the big drop from $4). Volume in currency has been constant and the fees are a percentage so it doesn't really matter what the price of a bitcoin is:

Cosbycoin
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September 17, 2011, 01:10:58 AM
 #19

It will really be over when the exchanges shut down due to lack of sufficient commission revenue.

I don't think that is going to happen soon (at least not as soon as the big drop from $4). Volume in currency has been constant and the fees are a percentage so it doesn't really matter what the price of a bitcoin is:



+1 They are like the casino. They always win.
grod
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September 17, 2011, 07:29:34 AM
 #20

Multiply coins times current dollars to estimate the exchanges cut fiat currency.  Paying for power, servers and bandwidth (not to mention salaries) in bitcoins is a difficult proposition at the moment so their lifeblood is real currencies.

For example, for 30k coins at .6% commission:

$30 = $2700 a day
$10 = $1800 a day
$5 = $900 a day.
$1 = $180 a day.
10c = $18 a day
1c = $1.8 a day

Volume hasn't really changed much as prices dropped.   So at some point if the prices stagnate long enough it may become uneconomical to run an exchange.  And at that point selling accumulated coins won't help much either.
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