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Author Topic: serious discussion on the strategy of the manipulator. Please no flame posts  (Read 6932 times)
klaus
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September 22, 2011, 09:18:47 PM
 #101

troll.

sell to him if you want. everyone can do.

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322i0n
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September 22, 2011, 09:19:36 PM
 #102

it is more likely that the reason for the 3000 buy at 5.5 is to push up to the queue of sells at the region of 5.65 to 5.7.

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September 22, 2011, 09:20:37 PM
 #103

it is more likely that the reason for the 3000 buy at 5.5 is to push up to the queue of sells at the region of 5.65 to 5.7.

Exactly.  A market artificially held up by bidwalls which aren't intended for execution is just as unhealthy as a market held down by askwalls.

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September 22, 2011, 09:23:47 PM
 #104

boom Grin
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September 22, 2011, 09:24:14 PM
 #105

someone sold 09:20:58 PM > Trade: 2916.6155822 @ 5.50000 to him. so he got what he wants / both are happy. finish.

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Revalin
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September 22, 2011, 09:24:32 PM
 #106

Revalin:

I'm intrigued by your charts, but I'm having a hard time parsing them.  Can you break it down a little bit more?

They're "market depth over time" charts.  Red for bids, green for asks.  X is time, linear.  Y is price, linear.  The brightness is the number of coins bid/asked at a given price on a log scale.  The black band in the middle is the spread.

Some common patterns:

Bright lines that don't care if they're in red or green: round (psychological) numbers.

Bright lines in a dim area:  Bid/ask walls.  The brighter, the bigger the wall, and the more likely it is to limit the spread-cut of a large market order.

The spread cuts out vertically terminating a bunch of lines, then gradually fills back in: Someone executed a market order (IE, bought or sold into the market depth), and buyers and sellers move in to fill the spread.  Where they decide to meet in the middle determines the new price.

A bunch of lines all suddenly terminate without being cut by a market order: a moderate to large player had a stagger, then pulled out.

Bright random dots inside of a mostly-dark peak: panic selling/buying.

Bright evenly-spaced dots in a mostly-dark peak: Stupid bot losing money.

Static outside and after a peak: the market jockeying for position after some high volume trading.


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September 22, 2011, 09:35:57 PM
 #107

I like how when The Manipulator puts up askwalls people rightly point out his manipulation... but when he puts up a bidwall some people say, "Yeah, he just wants to buy."
uh-huh.

Lots of people don't put up walls and use bots that sneak in buy and sells when the price reaches somewhere.

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Revalin
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September 22, 2011, 09:48:37 PM
 #108

If you're in this to make money that's a poor strategy.  You'll miss out on large market orders that would have given you a favorable price.

People trading for profit do just the opposite: limit orders spread out to either side of the current trade, then gradually withdrawing them as the price moves; the idea is to only take large market orders rather than standing in the way of price movements.

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johnj
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September 22, 2011, 09:55:21 PM
 #109

Revalin:

I'm intrigued by your charts, but I'm having a hard time parsing them.  Can you break it down a little bit more?

They're "market depth over time" charts.  Red for bids, green for asks.  X is time, linear.  Y is price, linear.  The brightness is the number of coins bid/asked at a given price on a log scale.  The black band in the middle is the spread.

Some common patterns:

Bright lines that don't care if they're in red or green: round (psychological) numbers.

Bright lines in a dim area:  Bid/ask walls.  The brighter, the bigger the wall, and the more likely it is to limit the spread-cut of a large market order.

The spread cuts out vertically terminating a bunch of lines, then gradually fills back in: Someone executed a market order (IE, bought or sold into the market depth), and buyers and sellers move in to fill the spread.  Where they decide to meet in the middle determines the new price.

A bunch of lines all suddenly terminate without being cut by a market order: a moderate to large player had a stagger, then pulled out.

Bright random dots inside of a mostly-dark peak: panic selling/buying.

Bright evenly-spaced dots in a mostly-dark peak: Stupid bot losing money.

Static outside and after a peak: the market jockeying for position after some high volume trading.



Thanks so much.  That cleared things up.

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September 22, 2011, 10:24:31 PM
 #110

The existence of a rich person or people working together isn't even up for debate. Someone with HUGE pockets has massive walls up. Those walls are put up and and taken down instantly all the time, generally at key times when action is happening. If you haven't seen those, you shouldn't be commenting. The fact these massive walls appear and disappear instantly, along with how they are used, is plenty of proof that a very rich 'person' exists.

I never disputed that there was someone with deep pockets trading on MtGox. I've seen the bid-walls. The fact that they appear and disappear instantly to me implies that it is a bot doing the ordering.

You just seem to have a huge problem with them being called "The Manipulator" even though it fits with your provided definition. There was a massive 10000btc sell that crashed everything at 6.90 which may or may not have been the same person.  "His" exact goal can only be speculated, but that goal is really the only aspect that remains up for debate, not the "persons" existence. You can see the walls just like everyone else.

No, YOU said 'his' actions fit the title of "manipulator."

I say that 'his' actions are the result of an algorithm that determines that $5.00 is a great place to buy, so 'he' goes all in, or mostly in, depending on the calculated risk involved. As the wall is bought or sold into, 'he' gets new data saying, "hmm, maybe I could actually be buying for a lower price." Wall disappears, moves somewhere else.

All this bot is trying to do is TRADE.

Purposefully playing with a small market with tons of money or doing so accidentally through ignorance achieves the same result. Calling it 'the manipulator' 'it' 'he' 'she' 'the conductor', it is all the same. The market is affected.  So what is your theory? All you've done is talk shit. Why is the 17000btc sitting there at $7? Why was the 12000btc sitting at $5 until yesterday when the price got close? Why has this been happening for almost two months? Why does "THE CONDUCTOR" make these walls? Please regale us with your 'non idiot' wisdom.

As someone else said, throwing up walls of that size with the intent to squelch volatility is the opposite of what an experienced trader wants and even LESS of what a bot, who can make thousands of transactions more than humans can, wants. "The Manipulator" is simply an algorithm that occasionally does stupid things based on data it receives.

So why is a 17000 BTC wall at $7? Because, if for whatever reason, someone were to buy extremely quickly up to $7, even a bot knows that it probably won't stay that high for long. It wants to get rid of as many coins at $7 as possible. $8 would be way too far out there to ever get a hit. $6 is a more reasonable sell point. It likely has a few coins sitting out there at $6, just to blend risk.

Anyway, if you're using mtgoxlive to guide to your trading, you're doing it wrong. It only represents what might happen a few seconds into the future - a few minutes at most. That's why it's good for bots, but not good for humans. It's certainly fascinating to watch and I use it to see when my orders have been filled instead of bashing F5 on the exchange... Other than that, I get waaaaaaaay more out of looking at bitcoincharts with an array of moving average views...
BitMagic
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September 29, 2011, 02:08:26 AM
 #111

If you're in this to make money that's a poor strategy.  You'll miss out on large market orders that would have given you a favorable price.

People trading for profit do just the opposite: limit orders spread out to either side of the current trade, then gradually withdrawing them as the price moves; the idea is to only take large market orders rather than standing in the way of price movements.

Like this a lot, and your charts. Nice, dude.

Still, I have a lot of skepticism for one person toying with the market for profit. I can think of a massive number of people with lots of bitcoin wanting to sell that aren't intentionally trying to mess with the price. I think Revalin's comment makes this even more plausible.

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Minsc
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October 19, 2011, 02:07:35 AM
 #112

So what do you think The Manipulator is going to do now with the crash to $2?  Will he buy?  Will he wait?

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October 19, 2011, 02:33:36 AM
 #113

So what do you think The Manipulator is going to do now with the crash to $2?  Will he buy?  Will he wait?

if i was the Manipulator i would buy a lot of small amounts over a long time. as to not effect price much, keep doing this until a rally is clearly happening and then back up this rally. everytime the rally appears to be over Buy it up 0.50 cause even more panic buying.

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