Corazon79
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March 14, 2014, 04:37:24 AM |
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Anonymint, I have to say I've found your contributions to this board absolutely fascinating.
I share your goals. I'm wondering what you would class as imperative if we are to successfully achieve that level of privacy for the virtual knowledge worker.
Here are a few thoughts:
* Decentralised exchanges
* Decentralised web servers
* DAC version of Skype, outside of NSA control
* Privacy-centric versions of Instagram, Whatsapp, Fring etc. (do these already exist? Mobypicture, Telegram etc...may already fit the bill)
I like the Icelandic encrypted email project Mailpile.is, which should fully launch later this year. I'm looking forward to trying that.
So Anonymint, and others here - if you're up for embarking on a new project, let me know. I'm really keen to get working on something. There are a range of possible funding options.
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"This isn't the kind of software where we can leave so many unresolved bugs that we need a tracker for them." -- Satoshi
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Zarathustra
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March 14, 2014, 09:31:43 AM |
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Zarathustra's solution to the power vacuum of collectivism is to tell us to go back to being cavemen.
But what he doesn't acknowledge is cavemen still bludgeoned each other to death with cruder weapons.
No. Paleolithic (pre-patriarchal) anarchy was an epoche without warfare. http://gerhardbott.de/das-buch/summary-in-english.htmlRead it carefully. |
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AnonyMint (OP)
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March 14, 2014, 01:39:22 PM |
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Sleep sheep. Facebook wasn't funded by JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, etc.. And they aren't actively devising ways to track everything you do, even being able to identify you from your typing patterns. |
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AnonyMint (OP)
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March 14, 2014, 03:10:18 PM |
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Re: Warren Buffet: "Stay away from Bitcoin"https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=515414.msg5695190#msg56951901. He say consumers and merchants (he was not referring to investors in BTC) don't use it as a unit-of-account nor store-of-value, i.e. don't retain their cash in Bitcoin, and only cash in/out from/to fiat using as a money order. 2. He doesn't think duplicates can be prevented which dilute its value. 3. He doesn't expect a worse economic crash than 2008 in next few years.
Please remember #3, because he will be highly embarrassed on this one. He is wrong. On #1, I have to somewhat agree with him, but we are preparing to change this by making features that a fiat economy can't do. On #2, the network effect will take over much more strongly when the prior sentence is implemented.
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MoonShadow
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March 14, 2014, 07:39:40 PM |
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Zarathustra's solution to the power vacuum of collectivism is to tell us to go back to being cavemen.
But what he doesn't acknowledge is cavemen still bludgeoned each other to death with cruder weapons.
No. Paleolithic (pre-patriarchal) anarchy was an epoche without warfare. http://gerhardbott.de/das-buch/summary-in-english.htmlRead it carefully. You don't really believe that crap, do you? Conflict is a natural state of mankind, it's peace that requires the extra effort of education and negotiation; or in other words, civilization. |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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AnonyMint (OP)
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March 14, 2014, 11:02:19 PM |
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Thanks MoonShadow. I wanted to say something similar but was too mentally exhausted yesterday. Also there were no citations in that paper.
Zarathustra has some need to believe that. No matter how bad any coming crisis might or might not be, we will not lose the technology that is in our minds. For example I will not forget everything I know about computer science, even if society burns all the books.
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AnonyMint (OP)
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March 14, 2014, 11:39:53 PM
Last edit: March 15, 2014, 12:58:51 AM by AnonyMint |
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=515414.msg5702933#msg5702933I respect Warrens opinion he doesn't invest in the tech sphere because he doesn't put money in things he does not understand Since he doesn't understand bitcoin he will miss it like the rise of the internet age But for him it does not matter his fortune is from doing what he knows best so I would say to let him be Normally I'd agree with him because he's one of the best investors/economists on the planet but...in this case he just sounds like a rambling senior citizen that doesn't understand the internet and its related technologies.
Indeed the old tangible capital world is going away folks... and Buffet will die just-in-time to fade away with it... I also knew in 1999 that the dot.com crash was coming because I was trying to buy PPC advertising for my CoolPage.com (had million users at that time, roughly 1% of the internet) and what I saw was the ROI on advertising was negative for any profitable business, thus there was massive overinvestment driving the ad prices too high. So when Homepage.com offered me $1 million in stock options to take over CoolPage.com, I declined. I took a couple hundred thousand instead in a non-exclusive license, and reaped another 7 years of sales ongoing. But Buffet missed investing in numerous internet companies that have made others into $billionaires. The model of business he invests in is dying. We are leaving the tangible capital age and entering the knowledge age, wherein you don't need large stored capital to launch a business. For example the 3D printer (which can print itself) will eventually obliterate factories, retail stores, and shipped goods. There are already 3D printers which can print multiple materials on the same object. Also in the past knowledge was captured by industrial stored capital, because one needed physical production and distribution. Stored capital is a claim of future human labor or production. But now for example factories will be automated with robots, so the industrialists will depend on the knowledge workers. The knowledge workers can say "fuck you" to $billions, we don't need it. All that stored capital is becoming useless and won't be able to find a home. It is what you know in your brain that becomes capital. When the $223 trillion global debt bomb (with $1000 trillion in derivatives to hold it up, and another $1000 trillion in unfunded social liabilities promised to the boomers) implodes circa 2016ish as the marginal-utility-of-debt has become negative right about now and the BRICs are starting to collapse (with Europe and Japan to follow by next year and USA in 2016), the all those people who are useless in the Knowledge Age will be unemployable. And those $billionaires will lose their net worth relative to the capital in our brains which will grow orders-of-magnitude in value (what we can produce and buy with our efforts). Oxford U predicts 47% of all existing jobs will be erased by automation within 19 years (20 years from last year when the research was published). Which programming languages do you consider future proof, Anonymint? Obviously people will have their favourites and it depends on the job, I understand that. But I'd like to know your views.
I also listened to your recordings earlier on. Were you cut off at the end? It seemed like there was more to come. But the recording ended abruptly.
Apologies I deleted those recordings from my thread because I was so mentally and physically exhausted yesterday and somewhat incoherent. Also I gave away too many details on my plans. There were two recordings and the second one continued where the first one got chopped off. There was a lot more to explain but I think it is not yet the right timing for me. I am also suffering from exhaustion and need to focus my efforts more. I can't predict which computer language will be most important, but I am nearly certain it won't be C, C++, C#, nor Go. Because their typing systems are inadequate for the level of expression we need to do, and if you don't need strong typing then use Python instead. It will either be (or probably both) a dynamically typed language (i.e. actually statically uni-typed) such as Python or a statically typed language that is not verbose due to its very powerful Higher Kinded typing system such as Scala (hopefully a version 3 that has a first-class union type, which is the main lacking feature of Scala which Ceylon has!) something Ceylon doesn't have. I was working on the latter for my Copute which is intended to be a better Scala and I will come back to that if I can finish my work in the Bitcoin space. Are you a talented programmer? You can PM me. I got into a discussion about languages at the following thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=279771.msg3003835#msg3003835Some where in that thread, I explained why I think Go sucks.
1. Picture a complete freeze in lending, and a lack of access to cash. No one can buy cars or houses. People with no cash on hand couldn't buy anything. Stores can't stock shelves or pay employees. Forget just the banks, every company from GE to local mom and pop shops would be under within a month. Tens of millions would suddenly find themselves out of work. You'd have mass riots in every major city in the nation. If we were lucky, we would be living in a state of martial law.
This entire premise is based on the fact that new players will not enter the space that just appeared. Riots? Martial Law? You have got to be kidding. This reeks of statist fear-mongering. Not even the great depression brought on Martial Law. Unfortunately the situation is very different now in some critical ways which could indeed lead to riots and martial law. At that time the USA was still predominantly a rural and more self-sufficient society. My grandfather was walking around selling potatos during the Great Depression. The Great Depression was caused by the network effects from the First Industrial Revolution which created mass production factories in the Second Industrial Revolution. This bankrupted the cottage industry and socialism in Europe. Which caused 76% of the world's gold to flee to the USA. World War 1, FDR's New Deal, and WW2 were able to keep the people busy and people could survive in the semi-rural ways too. The USA was a net creditor and had much strength in industrial undercapacity and huge resources to apply to the Second Industrial Age. Whereas, the situation we have now is that all nations are bankrupt and have irrelevance to the Knowledge Age. Thus government has no clue how to solve this debt bomb. The only thing the socialism knows how to do at this point is tax and spend. There is no place for capital to run to. The economy is shifting to the Knowledge Age where capital is less important than specific knowledge and small world-changing focused opportunities. So you are going to have a very confused and pissed off society as this accelerates 2016ish. 2. And as for your ridiculous solution, is this something you actually spent more than 2 seconds to think up? Honestly, how long do you think it would take for the government create this plan, to identify these people, and to mail them checks. A few months? A year?
As opposed to giving reward to the stupid and losers? Now that was ridiculous and down right evil. And as for your time frame, there is this tech called a database that Dr Codd nailed for us in 1969. As a real world example, the Australian government gave out $800 dollars to every tax payer directly into their bank account within 3 weeks. It's not hard. It was a perfect Friedman helicopter drop. Minimal implementation cost and only a few dead people wasted it. 3. What money was spent? In the end, the banks paid the money back, so what money could have been "saved" for a better use?
The opportunity costs that the US lost by keeping the dead wood alive is immeasurable. You are currently experiencing a "long slow painful recovery" due to propping up zombie businesses. Worse than that. Central banks have delayed for decades the correction that should have come in the 1970s so that the boomers would have learned to be programmers as the personal computer was born. Instead the debt propped up all sorts of old world economy business that is no longer relevant. So now we will have an abrupt and very painful global adjustment that may even take us into a Dark Age. I detailed this at the following post and downwards in the thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455141.msg5637503#msg5637503
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MoonShadow
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March 15, 2014, 01:04:01 AM |
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Thanks MoonShadow. I wanted to say something similar but was too mentally exhausted yesterday. Also there were no citations in that paper.
Zarathustra has some need to believe that. No matter how bad any coming crisis might or might not be, we will not lose the technology that is in our minds. For example I will not forget everything I know about computer science, even if society burns all the books.
I forgot to mention that the Apache were, once upon a time, a matriarchal society; at least by Zarathustra's definition of same. (I would consider them to be a decentralized society, without a 'patriarchal' preference) History doesn't exactly describe the Apache as a peaceful lot. They gave the Spanish hell for centuries before the Americans entered into their region. |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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AnonyMint (OP)
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March 15, 2014, 01:09:55 AM
Last edit: March 15, 2014, 01:36:02 AM by AnonyMint |
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Thanks MoonShadow. I wanted to say something similar but was too mentally exhausted yesterday. Also there were no citations in that paper.
Zarathustra has some need to believe that. No matter how bad any coming crisis might or might not be, we will not lose the technology that is in our minds. For example I will not forget everything I know about computer science, even if society burns all the books.
I forgot to mention that the Apache were, once upon a time, a matriarchal society; at least by Zarathustra's definition of same. (I would consider them to be a decentralized society, without a 'patriarchal' preference) History doesn't exactly describe the Apache as a peaceful lot. They gave the Spanish hell for centuries before the Americans entered into their region. Apache are covered in the book The Starfish and The Spider. The Apache may have been reasonably peaceful amongst themselves, as decentralization increases degrees-of-freedom, reduces binding futures contracts, thus making it less likely for people to need to fight. But yes when attacked by outsiders, all men fight if necessary (and those who are submissive, I wouldn't call them 'men' inspite of what genitalia they might have). Now the question is could we all live decentralized and thus not need to cheat, steal and fight to get what we want? Even if the answer is yes, it doesn't mean we have to accomplish it by giving up all technology. In fact, it is technology that might enable us to enforce decentralization, e.g. Proof-Of-Work and now my effort to add provable anonymity to crypto-currency. The notion that we can go back in time and retry what wasn't sustainable, seems to ignore the fact that those cultures couldn't defend themselves against outsider top-down authority. |
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AnonyMint (OP)
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March 15, 2014, 01:45:15 AM
Last edit: March 15, 2014, 03:59:30 AM by AnonyMint |
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=515414.msg5704630#msg5704630Bolded emphasis is mine: I think he's being sincere about it. He knows that governments don't like the idea of people being free to trade goods and services with an unregulated, decentralized currency. Tax evasion, piracy, and black markets are the main reasons governments are likely planning to impose serious regulations on the internet. They want precise control over the flow of information. Whatever happens it's going to suck because most of us are powerless to stop it.
Agreed except the bolded part. We are more powerful now, we just need the right technology. Stay tuned... I am a fan of crypto but Buffet has a valid point of view and has been a proven winner in the past. To me he is saying that until the bitcoin "industry" or any other system proves there is a "saving" to the user and/or receiver of funds ie transactions costs are less than other remittance forms it is not worth investing in.
Correct. But as I pointed out in my first post upthread (which apparently flew over the head of most readers), rather than lowering costs to use it as a fiat money transfer tool, we will simply create new features (e.g. anonymity) which fiat no longer has (fiat cash is going away). And our new currency will support the virtual commerce knowledge age, which fiat won't. Buffet is in the dinosaur old world economy. We are preparing to do euthanasia on that dying piece of shit industrial+retail+tangible economy. And I feel like dancing to that! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyDUC1LUXSUhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TH8m6J3gPH0he loves the current government system of economic fascism (which he can easily lobby and control).!
+1 Bitcoin community warns "Stay away from Warren Buffet!"
Hahaha. Right on bro! I rather hope we feel like this about the beauty of humanity. Miguel - Adorn. Apologies but I've got a music itch today. I think Buffet lives a sheltered life. Doesn't he realize the world is a changin'. I can't wait to finish programming so I can have some fun, haha!
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Imerman2
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March 15, 2014, 01:56:20 AM |
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Zarathustra's solution to the power vacuum of collectivism is to tell us to go back to being cavemen.
But what he doesn't acknowledge is cavemen still bludgeoned each other to death with cruder weapons.
Anarchy here in Mindanao during the 1800s was that every person carried 5 or 6 knives. Women were afraid to roam far, as they would be kidnapped and impregnated by the opposing tribes.
My solution which I am busy working on now, is to make it impossible for the collective to tax us (the virtual knowledge workers), because they won't be able to see what we are doing nor know who we are.
My solution is moving forwards towards greater technology and prosperity.
There is no perfect solution, but competition is the name of the game.
And all of us men share to some extent those dreams of just wanting to be left alone so we can live happily, so I am saying to you...
What is your plan to accomplish it?
I have my plan. I am competing.
We are legion. We are not beta-males.
P.S. I will repeat again for those who are sending me private messages. AnonyMint will not be announcing any altcoin, nor will he be telling you which altcoin he likes. It is up to you to figure out which features such a great altcoin will have.
You know its going to be impossible for me to stop making my own coin, even if I can't code well and have to hire programmers instead. Like you said, you have a plan and are competing, I have my plan and I'm one of your competitors. Good luck with your coin  ! |
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AnonyMint (OP)
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March 15, 2014, 03:25:58 AM |
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You know its going to be impossible for me to stop making my own coin, even if I can't code well and have to hire programmers instead. Like you said, you have a plan and are competing, I have my plan and I'm one of your competitors. Good luck with your coin ! More competition means a better result for everyone. Who me making an altcoin? I will never announce such a thing. Do remember this factoid from someone who is very experienced at creating successful software. It is impossible for stored capital to create software. Software is created by the programmer and the stored capital can't get close enough intellectually to the real-time granular incremental feedback loop process of programming, so such projects fail. Rather what I envision is that many developers should be able to contribute to the killer altcoin and all of them profit. Your stored capital is probably best invested in such an altcoin. But please don't listen to me. The best way to learn is through experience. I do wish you good luck as well. |
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AnonyMint (OP)
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March 15, 2014, 06:10:14 AM
Last edit: March 21, 2014, 06:28:49 PM by AnonyMint |
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=515414.msg5710458#msg5710458Buffet was relevant when we required factories, retail distribution, and a tangible world.
But the world has changed. We are moving towards a virtual economy and Buffet's capitalism is just a middle man that needs to be routed around in order to the make the economy more efficient.
This is his swan song, supporting Obama and Gneithner in order to prop up the global debt for another decade past 2007, in order to double the global debt from $100 trillion to the now $223 trillion (plus China's shadow economy debt, plus $1000 trillion in "weapons of mass destruction", plus $1000 trillion of unfunded actuarial liabilities/promises to the public in the form of social welfare and retirement).
He helped make everything worse and he is going to pay dearly for it.
Stop looking up this man. That form of capitalism is dying. The new form of capitalism is high tech. It is mostly what it is your brain. The $ is becoming a smaller and smaller portion of what is needed to develop a high tech project.
This is his swan song, predicting there won't be another major financial crash soon, when in fact the NYSE will double by 2015, then we will have global collapse 2016ish.
This is his swan song, not understanding the new money of the world and how that new money will propel the high tech knowledge age.
The industrial age is dying. China has massive overcapacity.
The future is about making unique things that people really need (such as this new technology that can predict if you will get Alzheimers by studying you eye twitching), not all this Wallstuff crap imported from Chinky land.
Stop admiring $billionaires. They are by definition dumber than when they were poorer. Do you not understand mathematically why that must be so?
It is a mathematical fact that smaller capital can grow faster because it able to chase smaller investments. Early Bitcoin investors made 1000X return on investment. That low hanging fruit is gone now. You will be lucky to make 10 to 100X from here. There will be competition for Bitcoin, because Bitcoin is flawed and will be easily regulated by the government.
Some altcoin has to fulfill that unregulated market demand, because the knowledge age will demand to be unregulated. That will be a smaller market for a decade, but then in the end it will be the larger market and surpass Bitcoin in the long run.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=515414.msg5710868#msg5710868While i obviously don't agree with warren buffet's comments calling him an idiot for them is ignorant and just makes you look like an idiot. He's made BILLIONS from investing - he knows what he's talking about. The reason he made such comments about BTC, I believe, Is because he doesn't fully understand the technology.
Idolatry much. I stand by my comments upthread. He is dumber now. He was super smart when his capital was small and the industrial+tangible+socialism age was still young. Now it is peaking and dying with him too. I don't hate him, but I sure don't idolize him. I don't want to follow him into his coming massive failure. Perhaps his underlings and managers of his businesses are savvy enough to adjust to the knowledge age. We will see. As I wrote upthread, he is correct that Bitcoin is not yet treated as a unit-of-account. And I do think he might end up being correct about Bitcoin and wrong about an altcoin. Because I think the government is going to tax BTC as a commodity, which will insure it can't be a unit-of-account because legal tender is not taxed on VAT and capital gains. And then merge Bitcoin into some digital fiat plan (the mining is already centralized in few pools so easily to force those owners to sell to Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, etc). I believe this is why those banks have been patenting designs for the coming plan. So that is why I don't think you will get 1000X gains that you BTC holders are extrapolating. As I said in my first post upthread, he is somewhat correct, but only because Bitcoin is not designed to resist government regulation. I think the government is going to tax BTC as a commodity, which will insure it can't be a unit-of-account because legal tender is not taxed on VAT and capital gains. And then merge Bitcoin into some digital fiat plan... I think you are out of your mind if you believe any such government-bankster hijacking of Bitcoin will be even remotely successful or tolerated by the cryptocurrency community. World governments will have no more success taxing Bitcoin than the US government has had stopping the spread of piracy or winning the insane war on drugs. And proper decentralized exchanges are coming sooner than you think. Decentralized exchange won't help you. Because your IP address is still visible to the government, and Tor+VPN can't help you. And the block chain is fully traceable and the available mixers won't really help you. And CoinJoin is DOS-attackable in decentralized mode. Sorry I speak the facts. Eventually it will hit you like a brick. Then you will realize what the real future of Bitcoin is and that is going to be depressing realization for you. I am not happy about, which is why I have been investigating potential solutions.
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AnonyMint (OP)
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March 15, 2014, 02:52:45 PM |
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Btw, I have tried living like that here in the Philippines (where that photo was probably taken) and trust me, you don't want that "prosperity".
Gains in prosperity are not a zero-sum game. We can produce more energy. There is no limit. The Second Law of Thermodynamics assures us that entropy trends to maximum. Even Einstein said that law is fundamental.
Anarchy is not only people living in the jungle like rabbits. It is also the decentralized internet. You conflate poverty with decentralization. There is always a mix of top-down and bottom-up organization in society. It is when this balance skews too far to top-down that socialism is peaking in a big heap of debt and corruption.
I know you would really like a Dark Age, but sorry you won't get one inspite of the fact that the collectivism has f8cked everything up pretty severely this time around. The reason is because the internet is too powerful as a knowledge liberating tool. And I am particularly adept at seeing what needs to be done now.
The at-home 3D printing revolution will mean we can be self-sufficient and autonomous and void the 'aliens' leeches with their large capital and factories. The 3D printer can even print itself!
I think he's losing his mind. The 3d printers are just prototyping tools, and they usually specialise in just plastic or metal. A DIY silicon foundry would be nice. Good luck 3d printing that! Try out the printing of an entire house in monolithic marble with a 3D printer: http://d-shape.com/Recently human cells have been sent through a 3D printer to build tissues, e.g. maybe they can repair my blinded right eye soon. The earliest computers occupied huge datacenters and if one vacuum tube went bad, one had to go around testing all of them to find it. Now look they can put a computer on a single chip. Go on with your pompous avoidance of the future, until it slams into you like a freight train. |
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AnonyMint (OP)
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March 15, 2014, 07:22:34 PM
Last edit: March 21, 2014, 06:22:53 PM by AnonyMint |
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Why is Bitcoin an emergent natural order? I am doubting it as explained below. Please refute. I think you all may be highly overestimating the size of adoption Bitcoin can attain. The one single killer feature I can think of is people around the world avoiding border and banking controls. But I don't think they can set up businesses that can survive if they don't accept paypal or credit cards. Bitcoin doesn't have enough reach and won't before the 2016 global economic crash. Then no one will be making new businesses. So the more important feature crypto-currency needs is not in Bitcoin. And that is...what do people need in a totalitarian devolution? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=515414.msg5715922#msg5715922Sigh. Okay you two will miss your chance at 1000X gains. Fine with me. Good luck. Hey noob, I'm doing okay. I went in pre-100. I've already gained 1400% on my original BTC investment, and completely divested myself from the very dubious, artificially-inflated dollar. You should too. That's what happens when you buy and hold. Cryptocurrency's value increases logarithmically year over year, and there's nothing you or anyone else can do to stop it. Pandora's box has been opened. Every obstacle the terrified governments of the world throw at crypto is a mere speedbump in the big-picture, long view of the evolution of this new technology. And trees grow past the moon to ur-anus too. Rather adoption curves are logistic. So the question is at what point is Bitcoin fully adopted? Most people in the world don't give a rats ass about our idealistic goals with decentralized crypto-currency. They would prefer to use Paypal or a credit card. So Bitcoin will only continue going up if: 1. More investors drink the Koolaid. 2. There is some compelling mainstream use of Bitcoin that we haven't seen yet. So it is quite easy to displace Bitcoin, simply invent an altcoin that has some very important use which Bitcoin can't do, and which many people need desperately. Half of the population is dumber than 100 IQ, i.e. basically retarded.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=514995.msg5717832#msg5717832Let's not jump to conclusions, it just shows us that some people take time to recognize innovative new technology that is disruptive can actually change the status quo for the better.
So you think the masses are going to rise up and say "99% versus 1%, so let's dump our credit cards and use Bitcoin"? I could see that possibly happening AFTER the global economic collapse that should start to collapse in 2016. So maybe by about 2017 or 2018, they might start to make that transition in understanding. Right now, they are boiling frogs still in wonderland. But by 2017 or 2018 it will be kind of too late. An anonymous coin will have already taken over because the wealthy are going to need an anonymous coin to avoid the massive government confiscation coming as the economy implodes. We need a coin that has a transaction time rivaling credit card companies, such as a PoS coin.
I don't disagree. But do you really think that would cause the masses to leave their credit cards? Of course not! Credit cards protect them, let them make chargebacks, they can't lose their entire balance, they are familiar, etc.. Does anyone consider that there are 200+ countries in the world, and 96% of their population is not American, and about 60% of the bitcoins are not? Does it have any practical significance?
Agreed that is seems many are over estimating the US's influence. Every country is bankrupt with $223 trillion in global debt. They all need to ramp up taxation compliance. There is a big push in the Philippines about it all over the news every day (obviously being pushed by the PTB that control the media). Coin taint is going to be intertwinded with tax compliance, because the government will say "prove you didn't mine it and sell it to yourself numerous times?". So you have to prove the identities of whom you bought and sold your coins. I think you are making several mistakes:
1) Most nations are likely to follow the U.S.'s lead for a variety of reasons. Whatever methods the U.S. uses to promote taint will be followed by the aligned nations (or more offensively, our vassal states known colloquially as 'the free world') and the methods used by the non-aligned states will be probably even more draconian.
I think you are misunderstanding why most nations follow the US "lead" today, and why it is different with Bitcoin. The simple reason why many nations follow US rules regarding money is the US if the reserve currency. As such the US can say "you (Russia) have to follow our regulations x, y & z regarding money and if you do not we will remove you from the FED depository system." Without access to the FED entire nations can not trade since the dollar is the world's reserve currency and all trade happens in US dollars. But with Bitcoin the US has no control and mechanism to enforce its self declared rules. In fact, most nations are actively looking to get out of the thumb of the US, have you picked up a newspaper recently and seen not just Russia's maneuvers but also Chinese, Indian and many others response? Yet you forgot a small detail. Russia and China banned Bitcoin.  You can think of dividing the bitcoin adopters to segments like this: 2009 - 100 2010 - 1,000 2011 - 10,000 2012 - 100,000 2013 - 1,000,000 2014 - 10,000,000 2015 - 100,000,000 2016 - 1,000,000,000. It is a very rough classification but approximately correct. The top of the pyramid has quite good understanding of Bitcoin, the bottom not only doesn't have it but is quite unprepared to understand it deeply even if explained. The press articles cater to this "2016 segment" that does not have bitcoins and will not have them this or the next year. This information is mostly factually incorrect and very shallow. Because the press articles are read by the general public, they cannot be targeted to 0.1-1% of the population. They have to be poor as shit  I am thus questioning your premise that 1 billion people can adopt Bitcoin by end of 2016: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455141.msg5716065#msg5716065I think that is utter fantasy. No way that will happen. Absolutely 0. They would only move in if they are investors, because there is no currency reason for the masses to adopt Bitcoin any time soon. Thus I conclude Bitcoin will crash in 2014 or 2015. It can't reach 100 million. @all
you must also remember that:
Competing altcoins have never tried the tactic of fiat injection as incentive to switch.
No competing altcoin has ever had the power to say all other competing coins are black market, but our altcoin is governent backed.
I can see how this is unsavoury, it is to me also. But to deny the advantage that government has is rather a narrow minded attitude.
Remember not every head on the planet is as libertarian as our good selves.
+1 Another very astute post. |
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MoonShadow
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March 15, 2014, 10:48:37 PM |
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So the question is at what point is Bitcoin fully adopted?
I don't think that this is an answerable question. Most people in the world don't give a rats ass about our idealistic goals with decentralized crypto-currency.
They would prefer to use Paypal or a credit card.
So Bitcoin will only continue going up if:
1. More investors drink the Koolaid.
2. There is some compelling mainstream use of Bitcoin that we haven't seen yet.
I know of several off the top of my head, that were not only alluded to in the white paper, but not implimented in a single alt-coin that I've seen yet.
So it is quite easy to displace Bitcoin, simply invent an altcoin that has some very important use which Bitcoin can't do, and which many people need desperately.
I know what that is.
So goodbye to you. Enjoy your myopia.
There is no feature, compelling or otherwise, that Bitcoin can't replicate. The only question is whether or not the userbase considers your 'killer feature' as highly as you do. If they do, then Bitcoin will steal your idea. I'm still waiting for your grand announcement, BTW, and I'll be the first to point out if there is prior art within the bitcoin ecosystem. |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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Imerman2
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March 15, 2014, 11:23:50 PM |
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There is no feature, compelling or otherwise, that Bitcoin can't replicate. The only question is whether or not the userbase considers your 'killer feature' as highly as you do. If they do, then Bitcoin will steal your idea. I'm still waiting for your grand announcement, BTW, and I'll be the first to point out if there is prior art within the bitcoin ecosystem.
Bitcoin has certain aspects it cannot change without disrupting the system to the point that it could collapse, which means it is vulnerable to competition. For instance it cannot change its rate of coin creation and would not be able to change its hashing function unless it was near collapse or thought the risk of collapse was worth it. Bitcoin will be overrun by a crypto-currency that is better in some core area, because by the time Bitcoin will make the change it will already be near collapse, and the emergent currency will have all the momentum. Furthermore, just because it can be changed doesn't make it invincible, there are limits to the speed and scope of the changes that are possible. If the ability to adapt makes a currency impervious then we will be stuck with dollars forever as the FED and U.S. gov't control what the dollar is and has changed this from 100% gold backed to what we use now, fiat. Finally it is highly unlikely that it will be clear to the masses at an early stage which currency is superior, and the only scenario that would allow Bitcoin to adopt core changes with speed would be if all the users understood that the newer version was superior. But who understands issues at Bitcoin's and more generally money's core? Almost no one so Bitcoin has vulnerabilities. |
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sidhujag
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March 15, 2014, 11:38:04 PM |
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There is no feature, compelling or otherwise, that Bitcoin can't replicate. The only question is whether or not the userbase considers your 'killer feature' as highly as you do. If they do, then Bitcoin will steal your idea. I'm still waiting for your grand announcement, BTW, and I'll be the first to point out if there is prior art within the bitcoin ecosystem.
Bitcoin has certain aspects it cannot change without disrupting the system to the point that it could collapse, which means it is vulnerable to competition. For instance it cannot change its rate of coin creation and would not be able to change its hashing function unless it was near collapse or thought the risk of collapse was worth it. Bitcoin will be overrun by a crypto-currency that is better in some core area, because by the time Bitcoin will make the change it will already be near collapse, and the emergent currency will have all the momentum. Furthermore, just because it can be changed doesn't make it invincible, there are limits to the speed and scope of the changes that are possible. If the ability to adapt makes a currency impervious then we will be stuck with dollars forever as the FED and U.S. gov't control what the dollar is and has changed this from 100% gold backed to what we use now, fiat. Finally it is highly unlikely that it will be clear to the masses at an early stage which currency is superior, and the only scenario that would allow Bitcoin to adopt core changes with speed would be if all the users understood that the newer version was superior. But who understands issues at Bitcoin's and more generally money's core? Almost no one so Bitcoin has vulnerabilities. Btc is already under govt radar no alt is close.. There is no core feature that will be gamechanger enough to overthrow at this stage... You better wish bitcoin gets adapted or we wont be seeing any alt adopted for awhile unless a gamechanger feature that average joe can see with his eyes that btc doesnt have happens... So nothing can haplen now for an alt to overthroe bitcoin without average joe making adaption and over time realizing that there is a better option... Without bitcoin that door is closed and alt doesnt appear.. Annonymint csn try all he wants but his fate is tied to bitcoin wether he likes it or not... Think about it from the weakest link perspective and you can then see how widescsle changes occur.. Every argument has an even better counter argument... Becsuse bitcoin is highly technical unless everyone somehow be omes technically aware the masses will never know superiority unless they adopt and realize it for the selves without being told... If they wont see it then bitcoin is thr gamechanger as people have already seen... Otherwise we wouldnt be near widescale adoption...i think you might be saying the same thing in your last point |
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