China Holiday Ended Yesterday. China wakes again in about 5 hours. Predictions?

[MatTheCat]

Lol... it will never happen girl...

Silence!

One cannot use words to argue against another armed with a chart,with lines drawn on it! Unless you have a different chart with different lines drawn on it, I suggest you pipe down!

[1715174923]

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[1715174923]

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[1715174923]

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[BitChick]

Lol... it will never happen girl...

Silence!

One cannot use words to argue against another armed with a chart,with lines drawn on it! Unless you have a different chart with different lines drawn on it, I suggest you pipe down!

I never said with certainty that this is what WILL happen. But in a weird sort of way the chart does make some sense.  I look at it as a best case and worst case scenario.  There is reasons to believe we are on one of these adoption curves.  So far Bitcoin has been following an S-Curve adoption rate of new technology.  Many traders on the forum have been using the log-linear line to make trading decisions.  However, it appears to me that we have moved on to the other line now.  As hard as it may seem to believe, the price may be undervalued right now!  We won't know for a few months but if the price does get up to about $10,000 per coin by May we will then have more evidence of which line we are moving along on.  And these numbers are not just pulled out of thin air. 

[MatTheCat]

I never said with certainty that this is what WILL happen. But in a weird sort of way the chart does make some sense.  I look at it as a best case and worst case scenario.  There is reasons to believe we are on one of these adoption curves.  So far Bitcoin has been following an S-Curve adoption rate of new technology.  Many traders on the forum have been using the log-linear line to make trading decisions.  However, it appears to me that we have moved on to the other line now.  As hard as it may seem to believe, the price may be undervalued right now!  We won't know for a few months but if the price does get up to about $10,000 per coin by May we will then have more evidence of which line we are moving along on.  And these numbers are not just pulled out of thin air. 

I have only been joking but I think that some people may have been taking me seriously. So to be serious:

I am holding no Bitcoins. This is because my belief is that Bitcoin is going to tank, probably worse than anyone might imagine.

I am not shorting Bitcoins either, because I don't trust Bitfinex not to suddenly get hacked/go tits up and for my funds to disappear down a black hole.

I don't have any charts, with any lines drawn on them. But if I were to be forced to make one up, I would concoct one showing that after every previous Bitcoin bubble, the price has dipped below the 200 day Moving Average, and that would mean sub $500 Bitcoin.

[BitChick]

I never said with certainty that this is what WILL happen. But in a weird sort of way the chart does make some sense.  I look at it as a best case and worst case scenario.  There is reasons to believe we are on one of these adoption curves.  So far Bitcoin has been following an S-Curve adoption rate of new technology.  Many traders on the forum have been using the log-linear line to make trading decisions.  However, it appears to me that we have moved on to the other line now.  As hard as it may seem to believe, the price may be undervalued right now!  We won't know for a few months but if the price does get up to about $10,000 per coin by May we will then have more evidence of which line we are moving along on.  And these numbers are not just pulled out of thin air.  

I have only been joking but I think that some people may have been taking me seriously. So to be serious:

I am holding no Bitcoins. This is because my belief is that Bitcoin is going to tank, probably worse than anyone might imagine.

I am not shorting Bitcoins either, because I don't trust Bitfinex not to suddenly get hacked/go tits up and for my funds to disappear down a black hole.

I don't have any charts, with any lines drawn on them. But if I were to be forced to make one up, I would concoct one showing that after every previous Bitcoin bubble, the price has dipped below the 200 day Moving Average, and that would mean sub $500 Bitcoin.

You are holding no Bitcoins?  Are you 100% certain Bitcoin will tank?  are you only 50/50 about it?  If so, I would at least buy one!  Today is a good day to do so BTW.  There is a chart that says we will reach $1,000,000 by 2017 at the latest.

[MatTheCat]

You are holding no Bitcoins?  Are you 100% certain Bitcoin will tank?  are you only 50/50 about it?  If so, I would at least buy one!  Today is a good day to do so BTW.  

I am just as bearish now as I was at $820 when I sold my last Bitcoin. Actually I lie, I am even more bearish, worse than bearish. Even although I am holding no Bitcoins. I am now frightened of a real Bitcoin bloodbath.

A lot of people of unremarkable intelligence have lucked out in Bitcoin big style and as a consequence, now have heads the size of Jupiter and throw their 'advice' (Buy and HODL at any price cos any price is cheap) around as though they were financial wizards possessing some kind of esoteric knowledge about Bitcoin, the free market, 'and how it all works'. For this reason, I get quite agitated with a lot of people on here. But would it really be a great thing to see all those essentially clueless Joe Blows getting taken to the cleaners by the same old assortment of financial sharks? Probably not.

[MANofthePEOPLE]

I really hope China wakes up and decide it's time to dump. So funny when there's action, last few weeks have been too slow.

[traderCJ]

You are holding no Bitcoins?  Are you 100% certain Bitcoin will tank?  are you only 50/50 about it?  If so, I would at least buy one!  Today is a good day to do so BTW.  

I am just as bearish now as I was at $820 when I sold my last Bitcoin. Actually I lie, I am even more bearish, worse than bearish. Even although I am holding no Bitcoins. I am now frightened of a real Bitcoin bloodbath.

A lot of people of unremarkable intelligence have lucked out in Bitcoin big style and as a consequence, now have heads the size of Jupiter and throw their 'advice' (Buy and HODL at any price cos any price is cheap) around as though they were financial wizards possessing some kind of esoteric knowledge about Bitcoin, the free market, 'and how it all works'. For this reason, I get quite agitated with a lot of people on here. But would it really be a great thing to see all those essentially clueless Joe Blows getting taken to the cleaners by the same old assortment of financial sharks? Probably not.

Mat: The mentality reminds me of those who host tupperware parties or push Amway on their friends.  Some people here have a small fortune in Bitcoin and will defend it to the death.  I can't blame them.  People should just realize that for each bear who wants to put a fright into people to snatch up "teh cheep coinz", there is a bull who cringes whenever the markets go red because their wealth is literally crumbling before them and will urge investors to HODL (i.e. prop up their retirement fund).  And yes, the Bitcoin nouveau riche should keep their egos in check.  It makes about as much sense as being proud of winning the lottery.  Case in point, there was a guy in this forum bragging about some junk alt coin he bought up a few years ago and sold for $2mil on BTC-E.  But hey, if people are dumb enough to buy it, more power to him.

[TERA]

The Chinese men all wake up together, take group showers, go outside in a formation, meditate, practice kung fu forms, worship the emporer, eat breakfast, go to work, take their month's paycheck, and invest it directly into bitcoin. Bitcoin shoots to $1,000,000.

[MatTheCat]

The Chinese men all wake up together, take group showers, go outside in a formation, meditate, practice kung fu forms, worship the emporer, eat breakfast, go to work, take their month's paycheck, and invest it directly into bitcoin. Bitcoin shoots to $1,000,000.

Huobi's fake volume bots commission by the PBOC will mimic USD exchanges but trend just that little bit higher in order to offer the big nosed foreign barbarians some hope, so that they may not sell off too rapidly whilst Chinese Bitcoin whales cash out at as high a price as possible on Bitstamp.

[BitChick]

You are holding no Bitcoins?  Are you 100% certain Bitcoin will tank?  are you only 50/50 about it?  If so, I would at least buy one!  Today is a good day to do so BTW.  

I am just as bearish now as I was at $820 when I sold my last Bitcoin. Actually I lie, I am even more bearish, worse than bearish. Even although I am holding no Bitcoins. I am now frightened of a real Bitcoin bloodbath.

A lot of people of unremarkable intelligence have lucked out in Bitcoin big style and as a consequence, now have heads the size of Jupiter and throw their 'advice' (Buy and HODL at any price cos any price is cheap) around as though they were financial wizards possessing some kind of esoteric knowledge about Bitcoin, the free market, 'and how it all works'. For this reason, I get quite agitated with a lot of people on here. But would it really be a great thing to see all those essentially clueless Joe Blows getting taken to the cleaners by the same old assortment of financial sharks? Probably not.

Mat: The mentality reminds me of those who host tupperware parties or push Amway on their friends.  Some people here have a small fortune in Bitcoin and will defend it to the death.  I can't blame them.  People should just realize that for each bear who wants to put a fright into people to snatch up "teh cheep coinz", there is a bull who cringes whenever the markets go red because their wealth is literally crumbling before them and will urge investors to HODL (i.e. prop up their retirement fund).  And yes, the Bitcoin nouveau riche should keep their egos in check.  It makes about as much sense as being proud of winning the lottery.  Case in point, there was a guy in this forum bragging about some junk alt coin he bought up a few years ago and sold for $2mil on BTC-E.  But hey, if people are dumb enough to buy it, more power to him.

I don't consider myself that early of an investor.  Should have bought more sooner of course.   So I probably don't fall under the "Bitcoin nouveau riche" category as you put it.

That said, I think many of us hold because we have been victims of panicking when the price has dropped in the past only to realize that it bounces back and keeps moving upwards.  So we really are trying to be helpful.  It is painful to sell when the price drops only to have it go back up again to newer heights.  It is wiser to just hold and have a plan as to what price point it is best to cash out at.

And if Bitcoin really does reach the heights many feel strongly it will get to, isn't $700 still a great time to buy?  I think it is.  I would be buying if my cash was not already tied up.  But to each his own.

[Cyberlight]

I really hope China wakes up and decide it's time to pump. So funny when there's action, last few weeks have been too slow.

Fixed mate.

[EvilPanda]

You are holding no Bitcoins?  Are you 100% certain Bitcoin will tank?  are you only 50/50 about it?  If so, I would at least buy one!  Today is a good day to do so BTW.  

I am just as bearish now as I was at $820 when I sold my last Bitcoin. Actually I lie, I am even more bearish, worse than bearish. Even although I am holding no Bitcoins. I am now frightened of a real Bitcoin bloodbath.

A lot of people of unremarkable intelligence have lucked out in Bitcoin big style and as a consequence, now have heads the size of Jupiter and throw their 'advice' (Buy and HODL at any price cos any price is cheap) around as though they were financial wizards possessing some kind of esoteric knowledge about Bitcoin, the free market, 'and how it all works'. For this reason, I get quite agitated with a lot of people on here. But would it really be a great thing to see all those essentially clueless Joe Blows getting taken to the cleaners by the same old assortment of financial sharks? Probably not.

Mat: The mentality reminds me of those who host tupperware parties or push Amway on their friends.  Some people here have a small fortune in Bitcoin and will defend it to the death.  I can't blame them.  People should just realize that for each bear who wants to put a fright into people to snatch up "teh cheep coinz", there is a bull who cringes whenever the markets go red because their wealth is literally crumbling before them and will urge investors to HODL (i.e. prop up their retirement fund).  And yes, the Bitcoin nouveau riche should keep their egos in check.  It makes about as much sense as being proud of winning the lottery.  Case in point, there was a guy in this forum bragging about some junk alt coin he bought up a few years ago and sold for $2mil on BTC-E.  But hey, if people are dumb enough to buy it, more power to him.

I don't consider myself that early of an investor.  Should have bought more sooner of course.   So I probably don't fall under the "Bitcoin nouveau riche" category as you put it.

That said, I think many of us hold because we have been victims of panicking when the price has dropped in the past only to realize that it bounces back and keeps moving upwards.  So we really are trying to be helpful.  It is painful to sell when the price drops only to have it go back up again to newer heights.  It is wiser to just hold and have a plan as to what price point it is best to cash out at.

And if Bitcoin really does reach the heights many feel strongly it will get to, isn't $700 still a great time to buy?  I think it is.  I would be buying if my cash was not already tied up.  But to each his own.

100% agree, I tried trading in spring/summer 2013 when the price was slowly rising and found out I would've earned the same or more if I just held. Seen a lot of people panic sell and lose, so I just decided to play it safe and have more free time, but unfortunately last two months was a traders paradise, every week +/- $100 and slow down trend (bad for holders). Holding gets easy if you go past the early stage (first few months) when the price is close to your entry, that's why early adopters can hold with no regrets. The rest of us, who bought at $500 or more may still lose.

[adam9317]

From your past experiencs is it better to day trade or just to hold?

[chessnut]

From your past experiencs is it better to day trade or just to hold?

depends which day it is.

[adam9317]

From your past experiencs is it better to day trade or just to hold?

depends which day it is.

Do you find like weekends are different than weekdays or something like this?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

[EvilPanda]

From your past experiencs is it better to day trade or just to hold?

depends which day it is.

Do you find like weekends are different than weekdays or something like this?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

It's not about days of the week but market swings. If the trend is up (like it was in October and December before the correction - check out how it looks on the graphs) you're better off holding. If the market is swinging daily or crashing it's better to trade. This thing with Gox seems to be a good trading opportunity.

[adam9317]

From your past experiencs is it better to day trade or just to hold?

depends which day it is.

Do you find like weekends are different than weekdays or something like this?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

It's not about days of the week but market swings. If the trend is up (like it was in October and December before the correction - check out how it looks on the graphs) you're better off holding. If the market is swinging daily or crashing it's better to trade. This thing with Gox seems to be a good trading opportunity.

Brilliant thanks mate, I understand what you are saying!