Calling bottom in September 2018

[dothebeats]

It's mesmerizing to know that there's a possibility that the price will just follow what we've witnessed back in the 2013 ATH after the blow-off, however, market conditions back then weren't similar to what we have right now. There are a lot of players in the game right now that it's hard for a few manipulators to do their thing. Aside from that, regulations are also helping bitcoin accelerate the phase of adoption, so that should also be considered. If the market is to follow the previous movement, I wouldn't mind having another bottom @ September and recovery a year after that, knowing that the previous bearish cycle lasted for nearly 3 years. All in all we're still good since our new bottom is much much higher compared to where it was 5 years ago, and that sets us to higher ATH in the next bullish cycle.

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[gabmen]

I don't think that "calling bottom" is the right word to use as we still don't know if it will go down at this point. It may just be a reversal from its consolidation now. So maybe calling September as a break out point might be a more appropriate term. Because as of right now it is showing signs of bullishness as it has rallied to more than 700$ in just a little over a week. Yes a lot of people are calling this one last pump before the "big drop" but unless it happens we still need to keep our eyes open for the best plan.

That's pretty much all we can hope fo right now. Nothing's really certain at this point. Even that chart can't really give us a guarantee of what will happen though it's up to people to follow these analyses and predictions.

[Indamuck]

Good luck waiting to buy the bottom because we already reached the lowest point.  You will be waiting forever and look like an idiot. This time is different, bitcoin is more well known and widely used.  These bear markets are much shorter now.  6k is  the lowest we can go due to mining costs.

[STT]

My call is quite optimistic. It predict this cycle will happen 40% faster then last one, so also recovery to happen 40% faster. What if reality is that this cycle will be 40% slower than the last one? Now that would be pessimistic since bottom would happen in June 2019 and first signs of recovery in August 2020. Man that would be so depressing.

Yea thats a fair point but also in 2013, Bitcoin did make the national news and the big deal there imo was the actual deflation of the Mt.Gox event which destroyed the public image of bitcoin.  I'm not saying Bitcoin the protocol was at all impaired and everyone here knew that and might have said it but the public image is the tail which wags the dog.

The vast population of people out there who dont exactly know what Bitcoin is but use it anyway briefly or regularly even is the big weight that will drive crypto to success or back to obscurity.

It was natural for 2013/14 cycle to take longer to smooth out.   Also there is the halvening event which helped put a tail wind, if only slight in the direction of an upwards price build.    But we have 2 years to wait for that now, that part of the cycle will not coincide.   Could we benefit from something else, maybe Dollar becomes much weaker then anyone expected again the public dont really know USD $ has problems maintaining value so its an effect not yet in the price and BTC is quoted as a ratio to USD so it does matter

[Kylapoiss]

I hope $5,800 is the last bottom that i was going to see this year, i don't know what to do with another bottom coming this year. It's too deep to compare the previous price of bitcoin if it's going to happen. I hope they weren't right of that speculation because i can't take to wait for more than 9 months since bitcoin was down.

Probably not, we might be seeing some bullish signs at the moment but it probably will come test lower levels, maybe touch even 3xxx, though I think that's unlikely. I'm thinking it will come down to 48xx levels, no real TA behind it, just SOMA (Straight Off My Ass, copyrighted by someone). Late 2014, early 2015 nobody thought it will go lower than 250, but it went and stayed there for some time. But yeah, much has changed since then, more adoption and more "smart money", so we really can't take the past into account.

[magneto]

If we do refer to the last cycle which I think is really a valuable reference point to look to, then you'll see that prices actually bottomed at around February to April of 2015, which was actually around 1.5 years after the bear market had begun. Obviously, this is not something that will be replicated perfectly, but cycles should generally stay the same imo for a bull and bear market. Prices usually rise until a year or so after the halving, then the bear market kicks in for 1-2 years.

Also taking into account how big of a percentage was lost of BTC from its peak value (around 85% I believe from the 2014 bear market), I do think that there is some more dips and dumps that we'll have to go through before we bottom.

I would say that September is probably too soon, it's much more likely that this year will just continue to be extremely bearish. However, next year will most likely see prices bottom (imo, around $3-4k is likely) and the start of a recovery, but even then the markets wouldn't be as bullish as last year.

[BrewMaster]

I hope $5,800 is the last bottom that i was going to see this year, i don't know what to do with another bottom coming this year. It's too deep to compare the previous price of bitcoin if it's going to happen. I hope they weren't right of that speculation because i can't take to wait for more than 9 months since bitcoin was down.

Probably not, we might be seeing some bullish signs at the moment but it probably will come test lower levels, maybe touch even 3xxx, though I think that's unlikely. I'm thinking it will come down to 48xx levels, no real TA behind it, just SOMA (Straight Off My Ass, copyrighted by someone). Late 2014, early 2015 nobody thought it will go lower than 250, but it went and stayed there for some time. But yeah, much has changed since then, more adoption and more "smart money", so we really can't take the past into account.

here you go, have a merit for your honesty
anyways in 2015 the price had reached the bottom between $200 and $250, there is always some fluctuations in the market so t here is a range of price as the bottom, mostly at $220 though. and the drop that happened was a one time short lived dump that pushed the price to $150 for a couple of hours only before it jumped back up. it was done to test the strength of the buy support by some whale and the fast jump back proved the accumulation that was happening back then.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

OP, I'm not a believer in technical analysis by any means, but don't most people who actually call market bottoms do it after a market has started to recover from the bottom?  A lot of folks called the bottom of the stock market back in 2009, but it was only after the Dow had fallen below 7000 IIRC.  I don't think at this point any of us have enough info to be calling a bottom in two months.

Having said that, if it did come in September I'd be very cool with that--but there's a world of difference between hoping something happens and actually thinking or even claiming that it's going to.  And hey, if you truly believe we're going to bottom out in 9/2018, then put your money where your mouth is and load up on bitcoin...once it starts dropping again, because it kind of looks like it's already started to rebound.  Could be a dead-cat bounce, though.

[XinXan]

OP, I'm not a believer in technical analysis by any means, but don't most people who actually call market bottoms do it after a market has started to recover from the bottom?  A lot of folks called the bottom of the stock market back in 2009, but it was only after the Dow had fallen below 7000 IIRC.  I don't think at this point any of us have enough info to be calling a bottom in two months.

Having said that, if it did come in September I'd be very cool with that--but there's a world of difference between hoping something happens and actually thinking or even claiming that it's going to.  And hey, if you truly believe we're going to bottom out in 9/2018, then put your money where your mouth is and load up on bitcoin...once it starts dropping again, because it kind of looks like it's already started to rebound.  Could be a dead-cat bounce, though.

Anyone who claims to know when and what a bottom is going to be is a fool. Technical analysis is not meant to guess exactly the price and date of a stock. You can only make educated predictions based on percentages and it's never going to be: Bitcoin 7345.32$ in 23 days and 4 hours.

The best way to know if it's a bottom is to indeed wait for it to form and then look for confirmation, for example a double bottom like we had followed by good bullish volume and candlesticks.

[Febo]

OP, I'm not a believer in technical analysis by any means, but don't most people who actually call market bottoms do it after a market has started to recover from the bottom?  A lot of folks called the bottom of the stock market back in 2009, but it was only after the Dow had fallen below 7000 IIRC.  I don't think at this point any of us have enough info to be calling a bottom in two months.

Having said that, if it did come in September I'd be very cool with that--but there's a world of difference between hoping something happens and actually thinking or even claiming that it's going to.  And hey, if you truly believe we're going to bottom out in 9/2018, then put your money where your mouth is and load up on bitcoin...once it starts dropping again, because it kind of looks like it's already started to rebound.  Could be a dead-cat bounce, though.

Well. Calling it 3 months ahead makes it call it first.    I do know it also gives me way more chances to be wrong.      I am no PRO, I dont even trade just buy and hold. All i care is to predict when next growth will start to have more fun holding.

Its seriously funny to compare 2013 to 2018. Back than there was dozens of us DOZENS I say, whereas in 2018 there are millions of people not only buying and selling crypto but also started to use it as well. There is not a single chance it will resemble it on a long enough time period.

Oh those charts are not identical. Bitcoin in 2014 was $500 and now is $5000. That is far from the same.  2018 chart is projected on 2014 chart , that is what I did.   If we would have same number of users as in 2014 we would be around 2014 price and not around 2018.

[ReiMomo]

Agree with your point and the proof of graphs. I think September will be a hard time for Bitcoina as per the graphical representation each year and there is a very low price expected around that month it seems. But, post September there is a huge price rise going to happen and it can be 500% higher like $50000 or more than that as per my own prediction.

[BitcoinNewbie15]

OP, I'm not a believer in technical analysis by any means, but don't most people who actually call market bottoms do it after a market has started to recover from the bottom?  A lot of folks called the bottom of the stock market back in 2009, but it was only after the Dow had fallen below 7000 IIRC.  I don't think at this point any of us have enough info to be calling a bottom in two months.

Having said that, if it did come in September I'd be very cool with that--but there's a world of difference between hoping something happens and actually thinking or even claiming that it's going to.  And hey, if you truly believe we're going to bottom out in 9/2018, then put your money where your mouth is and load up on bitcoin...once it starts dropping again, because it kind of looks like it's already started to rebound.  Could be a dead-cat bounce, though.

Well. Calling it 3 months ahead makes it call it first.    I do know it also gives me way more chances to be wrong.      I am no PRO, I dont even trade just buy and hold. All i care is to predict when next growth will start to have more fun holding.

Its seriously funny to compare 2013 to 2018. Back than there was dozens of us DOZENS I say, whereas in 2018 there are millions of people not only buying and selling crypto but also started to use it as well. There is not a single chance it will resemble it on a long enough time period.

Oh those charts are not identical. Bitcoin in 2014 was $500 and now is $5000. That is far from the same.  2018 chart is projected on 2014 chart , that is what I did.   If we would have same number of users as in 2014 we would be around 2014 price and not around 2018.

It is so hard to say for me, because I can't see the full cycle of 2014 repeating. The circumstances are way different now. The userbase is significantly higher, and more governments and regulators are eyeing this market than ever before. Regulation is a good thing, it will help with Bitcoins legitimacy as an asset. I think we may have already bottomed as we have bounced off of $58xx - $6000 three times now... At least that's what I hope 

[cydrix]

In the records of the past two years it shows similar activity by 2016-2017 so we are eurrently suggesting people to invest now before it's too late. If you're gonna trade then why put it all on btc since your risking it why not risk big after all bitcoin has a potential and has a solid standing throughout the web.

[XinXan]

In the records of the past two years it shows similar activity by 2016-2017 so we are eurrently suggesting people to invest now before it's too late. If you're gonna trade then why put it all on btc since your risking it why not risk big after all bitcoin has a potential and has a solid standing throughout the web.

Not really. Considering how much the crypto space has changed, looking at the past is not necessarily a good idea. This whole market is too new and still growing, everything is still quite unpredictable. So far the bulls have shown some strength short term, it doesn't mean the bottom is 100% set but it looks more likely now than before.

[Febo]

In the records of the past two years it shows similar activity by 2016-2017 so we are eurrently suggesting people to invest now before it's too late. If you're gonna trade then why put it all on btc since your risking it why not risk big after all bitcoin has a potential and has a solid standing throughout the web.

Not really. Considering how much the crypto space has changed, looking at the past is not necessarily a good idea. This whole market is too new and still growing, everything is still quite unpredictable. So far the bulls have shown some strength short term, it doesn't mean the bottom is 100% set but it looks more likely now than before.

We had 5 bitcoin cycles so far. I dont believe that now from a sudden that will end. I am positive we will have at last two more Bitcoin cycles. How strong and how long will be we can learn from past. But again we can only guess and cant be sure. We can just predict some events with higher possibility then others.

[wxa7115]

Great analysis, while I do not have great trading skills I noticed something similar, after the previous crash it took us a lot of time to recover but I have been noticing that this cycle is moving faster this is why I do not understand those that are complaining all the time about the price for two reasons, first that the price is not going to be down for as long as in the past and second because this means we have a lot of time to get as many bitcoins as we want for a very low price.

[STT]

here you go, have a merit for your honesty
anyways in 2015 the price had reached the bottom between $200 and $250, there is always some fluctuations in the market so t here is a range of price as the bottom, mostly at $220 though. and the drop that happened was a one time short lived dump that pushed the price to $150 for a couple of hours only before it jumped back up. it was done to test the strength of the buy support by some whale and the fast jump back proved the accumulation that was happening back then.

That is a quite recognisable bottom when it goes to that spike down but its just like ritcher scale movement not really a sustained move.    At some point traders or whoever moves a large amount, it could be a collective recognition also, they see that low as a rejection and it becomes a buying point.    Same kind of deal to a spike up but it falters quickly, that becomes a trade short for some

[anisoptera]

To be honest, i dont think that the price will go lower than what we have already achieved during the last few weeks, so i think that it all will remain just like this (going up at some times) but it all will depend on the FUD and HYPE that is on the market

[Kylapoiss]

here you go, have a merit for your honesty
anyways in 2015 the price had reached the bottom between $200 and $250, there is always some fluctuations in the market so t here is a range of price as the bottom, mostly at $220 though. and the drop that happened was a one time short lived dump that pushed the price to $150 for a couple of hours only before it jumped back up. it was done to test the strength of the buy support by some whale and the fast jump back proved the accumulation that was happening back then.

Cheers for the merit mate!

Is it copyrighted by you? So I can use the name in the future, as I'm probably going to use that phrase again.

I remember the 2015 dip, was watching it live on my phone (I think it went to $144 in bitstamp) and telling some friends that it was a really good time to buy, only one of many listened unfortunately. Let's hope I'll see a big dip this time too and can buy some cheap coinz I'm gambling a bit atm, keeping my fiat ready to buy some in the 3xxx area.

[Febo]

here you go, have a merit for your honesty
anyways in 2015 the price had reached the bottom between $200 and $250, there is always some fluctuations in the market so t here is a range of price as the bottom, mostly at $220 though. and the drop that happened was a one time short lived dump that pushed the price to $150 for a couple of hours only before it jumped back up. it was done to test the strength of the buy support by some whale and the fast jump back proved the accumulation that was happening back then.

Cheers for the merit mate!

Is it copyrighted by you? So I can use the name in the future, as I'm probably going to use that phrase again.

I remember the 2015 dip, was watching it live on my phone (I think it went to $144 in bitstamp) and telling some friends that it was a really good time to buy, only one of many listened unfortunately. Let's hope I'll see a big dip this time too and can buy some cheap coinz I'm gambling a bit atm, keeping my fiat ready to buy some in the 3xxx area.

Buying at bottom or selling at ATH is like winning jackpot. You, me and no one else on this forum won any jackpots so far.  It is waste of time to fell bad that you did not sold at ATH or buy at bottom. You will just worry for nothing.