Do you guys remember the poll about if bitcoin will be 10 000usd this year?

[thedarksun]

The majority of people said they believe it will be 10000USD.
Ha. Delusional optimists.
I say we will recover to 900-1000 by either summer or end of the year.

[Lethn]

I agree, I also think that if Bitcoin ever reaches $10,000 hyper inflation will have hit and it will be pointless selling them anyway, it's a bit like these Jewellers I've heard of gathering the Silver and Gold dust up to save so they can sell it, if the dust is that high a price then it isn't the metal that's valuable the currency your selling it for is worthless.

[BTCisthefuture]

You never know.  Thinking btc would reach $1,000 last year when it was about $16 at the start of year would have seemed crazy as well.

We are only 6 weeks into the new year, way too short to know where bitcoin will be at the end of the year.

I had voted that no bitcoin wont be $10,000 by the end of the year and I still agree that it wont be. However, if it did reach those numbers I wouldn't be surprised either considering how things have gone in the past year 

[kireinaha]

This place cracks me up. In november, I tried to serve as a reality check for the community when we were getting three or four "to the moon!" threads a day, and I'd get abused by all corners everytime I countered the absurd projections. Now, we go into a bear market and it's all gloom and doom. This is bitcoin! We always go through boom and bust cycles, only to rise again from the ashes shortly after. There is no reason why this year will be any different. Sometimes I feel like I'm the only person around here with a memory longer than two weeks.

[akujin]

China will remove their restriction to bitcoin once they have obtained high enough coins then pump it high enough so late comers buy at a high price  

[Lauda]

Anything can happen. Maybe 10 000$ is a bit too high for 2015, then again you never know where and when the next spike will bring us.
Maybe $5000 sounds a bit more realistic?

[thedarksun]

5000dollars by this year?
How is that possible?
Its all up to mtgox really. If mtgox dies out int he near future then we will see a great drop and slow recovery.
If mtgox doenst die, well then price will still recover. I dont thin kwe will see a new all time high anytime soon. Maybe around christmas/fall.

[gentlemand]

Threads of this nature have occurred a thousand times before. There'll be tens of thousands more. There must be a secret level of the Bitcoin protocol that corrodes perspective.

[ErisDiscordia]

This place cracks me up. In november, I tried to serve as a reality check for the community when we were getting three or four "to the moon!" threads a day, and I'd get abused by all corners everytime I countered the absurd projections. Now, we go into a bear market and it's all gloom and doom. This is bitcoin! We always go through boom and bust cycles, only to rise again from the ashes shortly after. There is no reason why this year will be any different. Sometimes I feel like I'm the only person around here with a memory longer than two weeks.

Herd psychology is strong in any community. The positive feedback of patting each others back and confirming the "truth" of majority opinion just feels too irresistibly good to many people. Don't worry, you're not the only one with a longer attention span than a goldfish around here. It's just that the more clueless you are, the more likely it is you'll find yourself shouting your "opinion" at the top of your lungs 

Threads like this one make me feel that the bottom is slowly approaching.

[Dragonkiller]

when '$10,000 next week' threads appear, sell. when '$10 next week' threads appear, buy.

[Le Happy Merchant]

The blockchain got forked last year. The price was below $50 at the time. In the same year it rose to over $1000.

If the death of gox is anything like a blockchain fork, we may see $10000 this year. I genuinely think we will.

[Maged]

Threads like this one make me feel that the bottom is slowly approaching.

No kidding. This board has always seemed to be the best indication of where in the cycle we are at. Here's a pro-tip that will (probably) make you a lot of money: When we're in a bubble, don't sell until there are a massive amount of "To the moon!"-type posts around here. When you're seeing posts like "$10,000 by the end of the week!" when we've just broken $1k and the week is half-over, sell.

[thedarksun]

If mtgox fixes its withdrawals everyone will do it and crash the price down. gox will probably die out at that time, it will take a long time before it is recovered again

[matt608]

All you have to to to realize $5000-$10000 per btc is a very real possibility for this year is go to bitcoinwisdom.com, put the settings to show the log scale and look at the all time btc history.  BTC goes up in steps, or 'bubble phases'.  We've had 4 so far and they are all 7-9 months apart.  If the pattern continues the next one should happen in about 6 months and it's peak will likely be $5k-$10k.  Until then its mostly sideways and downward movement.

[sgbett]

Remember the poll? not half...I got 5BTC on it

[Ibian]

I got a single coin on that bet too. Can't wait to see how flooded the yes side gets when we get closer.

[sgbett]

I got a single coin on that bet too. Can't wait to see how flooded the yes side gets when we get closer.

I'd been waiting a while for better odds. I got just under 2:1 this morning.

Let's hope the no side continues to fill up during this downturn, and that the time weighting has decreased plenty by the time the upswing happens

[GigaCoin]

The "bwhahaha i told u so" bear threads begin !

[Lauda]

5000dollars by this year?
How is that possible?
Its all up to mtgox really. If mtgox dies out int he near future then we will see a great drop and slow recovery.
If mtgox doenst die, well then price will still recover. I dont thin kwe will see a new all time high anytime soon. Maybe around christmas/fall.

It's not that much up to Gox anymore. Wait for their death.

[nakaone]

even if it drops to 100$ this night it is not more or less unlikely than before

no one knows

my feeling is that more and more people get a view on the technology behind bitcoin and see its future potentials.

i know that people hate me for saying this but do you have any idea what a smart (!) regulation for bitcoin in the us will mean for the price of bitcoin 

just see what it is and who is responsible for this mess: mtgox is an entity you had/have to trust, bitcoin runs WITHOUT trust and so will a) the decentralized exchanges in the future or b) the new exchanges will be in a way regulated that their as trustful as possible in finance

[Edward50]

Yahoo finance just posted an article about Mt. Gox claiming the bitcoin code had issues. I would think that should be enough to scare anyone away from bitcoins. 

I honestly wonder where the money is going to come from to push bitcoins even past $1000 at this point.

You have to realize that so many people are sitting on huge amounts of bitcoins that they paid close to nothing for. It is hard to imagine that enough buyers will come in to buy even a fraction of these bitcoins from them.

I think the holders will start to cheat a little more and sell some before the other holders sell theirs. This should keep pushing the price down. If I had bitcoins I wouldn't want to be the one left holding the bag.

[wobber]

I understand that % theory but from 1000 to 10,000 we have 9000 bucks to go. That's a lot, and people don't get raises in %.

[painlord2k]

Current long term logarithmic trend (from january 2013 to the minimum of SR (30/09/2013) if prolonged for another year bring 5.500 by Ocotber 2014.
This is the bottom of the barrel trend and it is parallel to the main long term trend from the bottom of november 2011 (2.22 $ on Bitstamp) to the current bottom of 510 on Bitstamp.

The main long term trend was a resistance trend before 2013 but was pierced  in April 2013.
The it came down, but settled to an higher (intermediate) trend line between the two.
Then the main trend line was pierced again and now it appear to be a support line and no more a resistance line.



The lower trend line point to 5.500 USD/BTC by October 2014
The higher trend line is something like 3 times higher (around 15-16K USD/BTC).

Apart for the technical analysis, there are more fundamentals analysis bullish for Bitcoin exchange rate:
1) The EU is full of rumors (substantiated) of bank bail-ins and bail-outs. Italy not-performing bank loans are at 25%
2) In the US there are movements to make bank withdraws more difficult (Argentina-light)
3) Interest rates of bank accounts are zero or negative (without including inflation)
4) The M1 inflation of USD, €, Yen, Renmimbi (nearly whatever) are higher than the M1 inflation of BTC of at least 3% (for €) or much more (for $).
5) As the adoption increase the price of BTC will be pushed up naturally and no one will be able to produce more BTC. The same is not true with fiat (no increase adoption and printer happy central bankers).

Point 3 and 4 make holding BTC at 0% interest rate as profitable as holding bonds at 3% (denominated in €) without the counterparty risk in the worst case scenario.
Point 5 make holding BTC much more interesting than holding fiat (that is printed in oblivion by CB).
Points 1 and 2 make holding BTC much more secure than holding fiat at the bank.

First or later some large institutional investors (the smaller of the group, probably) will decide to put some money in BTC to edge against system risks.
Someone will decide to buy BTC as investments instead of Rembrandt or Monet.
All they have? NO
A paltry 1% would make wonder to the bitcoin price.

A single large private actor could, at the current exchange rate, buy 1% of all existing BTC (around 120K BTC) for mere 100 M USD and just this would propel the exchange rate around 1500$.
The Federal Reserve print 2 Billions a day every day (QE). Just if a paltry billion get lost and end buying bitcoin instead of T-bills, it would propel the exchange rate to 5-10K USD.
Just the take-away food industry adoption in Germany alone is a multi-billions year industry. If they start converting from CC and cash to BTC (as appear they are doing) to save and to add security the added demand to hold for BTC would be in the hundred of millions $ range (at least).

[checkers6676]

Yahoo finance just posted an article about Mt. Gox claiming the bitcoin code had issues. I would think that should be enough to scare anyone away from bitcoins. 

I honestly wonder where the money is going to come from to push bitcoins even past $1000 at this point.

You have to realize that so many people are sitting on huge amounts of bitcoins that they paid close to nothing for. It is hard to imagine that enough buyers will come in to buy even a fraction of these bitcoins from them.

I think the holders will start to cheat a little more and sell some before the other holders sell theirs. This should keep pushing the price down. If I had bitcoins I wouldn't want to be the one left holding the bag.

We are still not to mainstream adoption. The next phase imo is institutional investors. Institutional investors will do their research and realize there is no problem with the protocol, what they will see is a floundering company (Mt. Gox) making excuses, and they will still invest. Once institutional investors are in, price skyrocketing and those same institutional investors pushing it to the populace will see us well past 10k/BTC.

[podyx]

I understand that % theory but from 1000 to 10,000 we have 9000 bucks to go. That's a lot, and people don't get raises in %.

1 to 10 is the exactly same as 1,000 to 10,000

[BitchicksHusband]

This place cracks me up. In november, I tried to serve as a reality check for the community when we were getting three or four "to the moon!" threads a day, and I'd get abused by all corners everytime I countered the absurd projections. Now, we go into a bear market and it's all gloom and doom. This is bitcoin! We always go through boom and bust cycles, only to rise again from the ashes shortly after. There is no reason why this year will be any different. Sometimes I feel like I'm the only person around here with a memory longer than two weeks.

And MY memory is long enough to remember that bitcoin has gone up 10x every year.  Almost 100x last year.  So despite the current doom and gloom, I still would not be surprised to see $10,000 by the end of the year.

[N12]

This place cracks me up. In november, I tried to serve as a reality check for the community when we were getting three or four "to the moon!" threads a day, and I'd get abused by all corners everytime I countered the absurd projections. Now, we go into a bear market and it's all gloom and doom. This is bitcoin! We always go through boom and bust cycles, only to rise again from the ashes shortly after. There is no reason why this year will be any different. Sometimes I feel like I'm the only person around here with a memory longer than two weeks.

And MY memory is long enough to remember that bitcoin has gone up 10x every year.  Almost 100x last year.  So despite the current doom and gloom, I still would not be surprised to see $10,000 by the end of the year.

I take it you haven't been here in 2011-2012.

[JimboToronto]

Last June it was, "no more triple digits in 2013" and, "it has to capitulate down to at $30 before it goes up".

Autumn 2011 it was, "Bitcoin is dead".

Foolish bears.

[podyx]

^

lmao 

yea i dont doubt we gonna see atleast $5k in the end of 2014

[JimboToronto]

I take it you haven't been here in 2011-2012.

This is why I recommend a minimum hold time of 2 years.

Yes, it took over a year and a half to recover from June 2011's bubble, but that followed an extended rally that saw the price go from a penny to over $30 in 8 months, and it was followed by a pair of rallies that saw the price go from $10 over $1000 in less than a year.

Until Bitcoin's adoption curve goes vertical, expect it to generally follow the log scale.

[wobber]

Last June it was, "no more triple digits in 2013" and, "it has to capitulate down to at $30 before it goes up".

Autumn 2011 it was, "Bitcoin is dead".

Foolish bears.

There is absolutely no point for me that bitcoin have triple-digit value for a few weeks. Why? Because you can't do anything with the money, other than going back to banks (which I hate more than seeing everything I own going to 0).

On the other hand, if prices are stable, everybody's happy.

[JimboToronto]

There is absolutely no point for me that bitcoin have triple-digit value for a few weeks. 

Um, it's been at triple (and briefly quadruple) digit prices for a half a year now. Double digits are the unrealistic pipe dream.

you can't do anything with the money, other than going back to banks

I guess that depends on where you are.