My prediction: Bitcoin will flatline until the big event in 2012

[bitcola]

When the dominoes start to fall in Europe and spread to major world markets, the big one, the depression, I predict this is when many people will suddenly flock to BTC and there will be a huge spike and higher closes each day for a week.

Even precious metals are not immune to the depression as holding will be liquidated, demand for industrial use diminishes etc.

Bitcoin has none of these problems. As the stock market closes lower each day, people will panic to find somewhere where they can stash their money. Bitcoins will be one such area.

Due to the limited size of the market, the price spike will be incredible.

Mark my words, it's coming, some time in 2012.

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[wobber]

Please expand this. How do you see the precious market then? And why 2012? A Great Depression and WW3 (a 3rd generation war) are very likely to happen.

[Minsc]

David Icke predicted these.

* 2012 will be an illusion and a trick.  2016 or so will be the real year
* There will be a World War 3 caused by the same people who then offer a solution to the war.  The solution will be a one world government.
* The one world government will strip individual liberties away.

[tvbcof]

OP:

I think that the possibility of something akin to what you predict is distinct and has a high enough probability for me to have put a pretty significant bet on.

That said, I still consider the odds of things working out that way and my being able to capitalizing on it in the face of various possible roadblocks are pretty low.  I expect to either lose all of my bet, or in a more hopeful case to sort of break even in the end.

If Bitcoin as a system and network does not fail completely it might still be leveraged as a mechanism of transferring assets around in unfavorable environments (e.g., under a currency controlled regime.)  I hope that this utility, if nothing else, props up demand and thus value to some level.

[TiagoTiago]

My prediction: Bitcoin will flatline until the big event in 2012

No, Bitcoin will be the big even in 2k12. ¬.¬

[Spekulatius]

Unfortunatly bitcoins have not yet proven any correlation to EUR, USD, Gold indexes or anything like that.
Although BTC may have the potential to mark a true alternative to ordinary stores of value, that rise while economies go down (like precious metals), it is not yet SAVE enough to provide just that for investors: Price Stability

If you want to save your assets from inflation you turn them into relative price stable values, like gold, real estate, (CHF), rare artwork,...
to preserve their value. While BTC provides the potential to do just that, it has to migrate from being mainly object to speculation to a fairly stable asset. Just take a look to the past 5 month USD/BTC rates and then try to imagine what YOU would do if you had a large amount of money that you ve worked hard for, that you want to put in a save haven while depression lurks around the corner. Would you rather invest in the traditional assets that have proven reliable in times of economic downturn or would put all you have in that fancy new "fad" called bitcoin?...

...

...

I knew it.

P.S.: If you can prove to me (lets say by charts, some real evidence..) that BTC rises in times of economic downturn while other currencies fall, id be anxious to read it!

Cheers

[bitcola]

Yes, there is a lack of correlation, be it positive (e.g. with other safe have assets) or negative (compared with e.g. fiat currencies). If it just does it's own thing, that's fine by me.

Make no mistake, 2008 was scary as hell but everything that has been done since has only stored the problem up for later and made it worse than it would have otherwise been.

We keep seeing reprieve after reprieve. I think that the house of cards is going to fall anytime between now and 2012.

I think bitcoins will stand on their own against all the craziness that will ensue. Maybe the only thing it will be correlated with in some way is electricity prices due to the mining factor.

[TiagoTiago]

That's like saying the world will end after the last minutes of December 31st, that's the end of the calendar...

[ElectricMucus]

That's like saying the world will end after the last minutes of December 31st, that's the end of the calendar...

Actually their calender ends at Dec 21.
But it isn't a arbitrary date either like our calender "after Jesus Christ" but rather calculated to coincide with unique constellations of the solar system.

In a manner of speaking it is the ultimate Astrology... if you believe in that  
That's why McKennas I'Ching stuff (Timewave Zero) happens to end at the same moment as the Mayan Calender.

[TiagoTiago]

IMO the odds are that if somthing big happen it will be 'cause a bunch of people went crazy thinking the world is about to end, a self-fulfilling prophecy if you may

[evolve]

please tell me you are all kidding.  no one actually believes in the 2012 apocalypse bullshit, right? b/c thats just as retarded as the mason stuff from a month ago.

so here's a question, if the mayans could read the future, why didnt they see the spanish conquistadors coming?

[TiagoTiago]

Perhaps they were farsighted? ¬.¬

[kjj]

That's like saying the world will end after the last minutes of December 31st, that's the end of the calendar...

Actually their calender ends at Dec 21.
But it isn't a arbitrary date either like our calender "after Jesus Christ" but rather calculated to coincide with unique constellations of the solar system.

In a manner of speaking it is the ultimate Astrology... if you believe in that  
That's why McKennas I'Ching stuff (Timewave Zero) happens to end at the same moment as the Mayan Calender.

Ahem.  It is really a lot more like the transition from 1999 to 2000 in our calendar.  They just didn't bother to publish tables more than a few hundred years into the future, so it appears to end there.

And no matter how hard I try, I am unable to figure out any possible meaning in the phrase "unique constellations of the solar system".

[Otoh]

please tell me you are all kidding.  no one actually believes in the 2012 apocalypse bullshit, right? b/c thats just as retarded as the mason stuff from a month ago.

so here's a question, if the mayans could read the future, why didnt they see the spanish conquistadors coming?

quite possibly they did 'see' the shadow of that which was to be happening, but what could they have done about it, like the native american indians, like the australian aborigines - a few thousands against a new world (Europe) of millions with advanced tech, forget it, it's a long game that has to be played

poll: on 11.11.11 will BTC price in US $ be < or > $1.11

[TiagoTiago]

...

And no matter how hard I try, I am unable to figure out any possible meaning in the phrase "unique constellations of the solar system".

Some astrology shit i imagine.

[TiagoTiago]

please tell me you are all kidding.  no one actually believes in the 2012 apocalypse bullshit, right? b/c thats just as retarded as the mason stuff from a month ago.

so here's a question, if the mayans could read the future, why didnt they see the spanish conquistadors coming?

quite possibly they did 'see' the shadow of that what was to be happening, but what could they have done about it, like the native american indians - a few thousands against a new world (Europe) of millions with advanced tech, forget it, it's a long game that has to be played

poll: on 11.11.11 will BTC price in US $ be < or > $1.11

I wouldn't be surprised if it was around $11.11

[Cluster2k]

That's like saying the world will end after the last minutes of December 31st, that's the end of the calendar...

Actually their calender ends at Dec 21.
But it isn't a arbitrary date either like our calender "after Jesus Christ" but rather calculated to coincide with unique constellations of the solar system.

In a manner of speaking it is the ultimate Astrology... if you believe in that  
That's why McKennas I'Ching stuff (Timewave Zero) happens to end at the same moment as the Mayan Calender.

The Mayan calendar affects me just as much as Jupiter traversing 'near' the moon means I'll have a bad day tomorrow.  I had a conspiracy minded friend once who swore that in 1999 the world would end because the planets would line up and cause 'powerful forces' to destroy Earth.  He didn't seem to remember that prediction a few years later.  Funny that.

Maybe the Mayans just got bored with writing a calendar hundreds of years into the future and decided to stop.  The calendar on my wall finishes at 31 December 2011.  I guess that's the end of the world as there's nothing after that.

[ineededausername]

I'd like to say I'm surprised people are bringing up the Mayans but I'm not... this forum is just like that.

[Cluster2k]

I'd like to say I'm surprised people are bringing up the Mayans but I'm not... this forum is just like that.

The Mayans predicted you would say that

[TiagoTiago]

The Mayans predicted your mother.