Bitcoin's future is DOWN

[MarquiseMuseum]

The tether manipulation is unfortunately a likely cause of much of bitcoins growth in 2017 as I did menton way back in december before the markets crashed.

I don't remember exact calculations right now but there is real growth in crypto that will offset a decline back to $400, I think it was something like 50% per quarter or half year which would put us squarely at around $2000-3000 as absolute bottom but again, I don't remember the calculation. It's in my historic post if you need specifics. It is also possible that there will need to be a spike downwards to really acknowledge the fake growth, so below $1k could happen but very briefly and quickly back up, similar to a flash crash.

If this ultra bearish scenario unfolds, -80% from $20k is a given no matter the other circumstances, so that's where people who are not yet invested should start looking for an entry and then buy more at $500 intervals down towards $2k and keep some for the flash crash if there is time.

Long term, 15 years say, blockchain and AI with androids will merge and progress world GDP to $1Quadrillion+ in a roaring 20's 2.0.

[1713992452]

1713992452

[1713992452]

1713992452

[cellard]

Going long term on Bitcoin will outperform going long term on mutual funds or any other conventional investment of choice.

Source?  For 'will outperform' (not 'has outperformed') of course...  lots of fuzzy thinking on this forum.

How much money are you willing to bet that Bitcoin will go back to $400 next year?

I didn't say $400 next year.  I said it's heading for $400 in 18 months.  Maybe two years.  Maybe $600 or even $800.  Look at the curve - it shows the main idea:  down, down, down.   Feel free to replace my guesswork with your guesswork on the details.  I'm just trying to point out the big picture implications of what we now know.

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

If I could reliably buy a put on BC for 18 months out, I'd put $50K or $100K into it.  I'd probably price it at $800 to have some margin.  The profit would still be huge.  However, not only do I know nothing about such maneuvers, others have looked into it and say it's impractical.  A Forbes writer did a detailed piece on that several years ago, pointing out some hidden gotchas with crypto.  Can't find the link now but it certainly put me off.

How much money are you willing to bet that your mutual funds will outperform Bitcoin?

Actually, I'm betting all my money that the mutual funds will do better.  Over the next 18 months I expect the market to return a 15% profit, not an 90% loss.  And as I noted earlier, my money won't be outright stolen, and I won't be cheated.  Those are huge benefits.  And I sleep well at night.

I understand that you consider actively betting that you are right by not holding any bitcoins and by putting your money in mutual funds, but that's not how it works.

In order to put your money where your mouth is, you have to bet against someone here that your prediction will be right. So are you willing to bet money in your prediction? 18 months from now, $800 or lower (you initially said $400 but you are raising now to double that... okay). Bitbet can be used to automate the 18 month countdown. Im sure you can find some rich guys in this forum willing to take the bet and make a lot of money on you being right and us being wrong. Are you down?

[eaglewhite80]

It won't easy to the users if bitcoin will continue to decrease because a lot of users are now depend on it but if we have a lot of hard work to promote it more to new investors I think it will save bitcoin price in future so probably many will back and patronize bitcoin.

If that is what you think, then I am not sure what I actually need to tell you to think otherwise. You think because we are in a downtrend, the number of users have simply decreased as a result of that?

What you saw last year was a manipulated pumped price as far as I am concerned, but that does not mean the growth of bitcoin is hindered forever. When a value is moved based on speculation only without some real demand, then, the likelihood of a correction is higher in percentage. It is a good thing though for those who got in for the right reasons, as the bottom will eventually end up a good buy whichever way. It is just unfortunate that those who simply are just gullible, looking for quick ways to get rich without knowing what makes bitcoin really what it is to even know what the future could be greatly holding, are the ones who still come back to join the FOMO over and over again after missing the dip.

[MoonJeina]

All these logistics and speculations must be backed up by some real evidences .
These type of random speculations just results in a widespread of panic and distrust among people in respect to bitcoin . If the future for bitcoin will be down , we will see it for ourselves . Until then , no such statement matters.

[davit putra]

By the most logical thinking:

•  There's strong evidence that the late 2017 spike in Bitcoin value was due to manipulation via Tether.

•  IF that is so, then that entire episode actually means nothing, and...

•  Bitcoin etc values will decay back to their historical levels prior to pump & dump.

•  This will be slow because interim buyers won't want to take the losses.

Look at BC charts for the past 6 months.  It's very easy to imagine the average value continuing to decay down to $400 in 12-18 months.  And that's what makes sense - at least, more sense than anything else.

A few brilliant traders will make money getting in and out during the decline, but all the other players here are just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.  The only "charting" you need is the big picture here:

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

Unfortunately, there seems to be no reliable way to buy a put on BC for that time-frame, or I would.

Friends, I guess that's not going to happen to bitcoin, I find it hard to believe that the future of bitcoin falls. Bitcoin is not a weak coin, and bitcoin is more likely to have a bright future.

[exstasie]

Even a mid-term bull trap could allow people to exit at 2x this price while you're waiting for sub-$1K prices. I prefer to wait for significant trading ranges to break, then ride the trend.

Yup.  Even dumb ol' me knows that selling high is better.  But you give no reason to suppose there will be any such major increase.

I guess you missed the point about trading range.

You're telling people to short directly after a tweezer bottom on the 1-week chart, near the bottom of a long term range! I don't need reasoning to assume price can break upward from a range (even though you claim it can only break down). I'm also not dumb enough to short horizontal support before it's actually failed.

Your entire approach is that of someone who is constantly getting their shorts squeezed, and what's even worse is that you're going on about "manipulation via Tether." Nobody gives a shit about Tether. Nobody gave a shit about the Willy bot either.

Again, any rise will run into exponential resistance as those now disenchanted sell out, when they get close to recovering their money.  That's just an observation - my main point is that the overall trend will be down, meaning only the sharpest traders should buy along the way.

Cuz Tether?

We get it. A bubble happened. A correction is happening. As someone who has been trading Bitcoin for several years now, let me tell you something: the correction will never play out as you expect. You should be thinking in possibilities, not merely assuming this correction will play out as the most bearish of all historic corrections (by far). You have no historical data points or even conventional chart patterns to support your thesis.

[francedeni]

All these logistics and speculations must be backed up by some real evidences .
These type of random speculations just results in a widespread of panic and distrust among people in respect to bitcoin . If the future for bitcoin will be down , we will see it for ourselves . Until then , no such statement matters.

Speculation is just speculation it migth true until such time it can happen. Absolutely this people should have proof of statement, because we do not know yet when is the price can turns back at all time high. But I don't think future is down.

[slackcryptoz]

What happens with bitcoin through the network is beyond reality. We just understand the market and predict according, but it has got its potential to make change which can be quite often realized. If this is to go down in the future it could have begun long back itself, now the usage keeps on increasing which won't let it down.

[Ayston]

Don't say word that might shot you on the future, just remember that there are well known person who said that Bitcoin is a bubble but now they are on the top 100 earning from it and advertise it!

[nisya]

All these logistics and speculations must be backed up by some real evidences .
These type of random speculations just results in a widespread of panic and distrust among people in respect to bitcoin . If the future for bitcoin will be down , we will see it for ourselves . Until then , no such statement matters.

Speculation is just speculation it migth true until such time it can happen. Absolutely this people should have proof of statement, because we do not know yet when is the price can turns back at all time high. But I don't think future is down.

I agree with you, many of us give a prediction about bitcoin but still, it's a prediction or speculation. we don't know until it's happening and there will be a debate for about bitcoin in the future. personally, I think bitcoin future will not down and will increase higher but we need to wait for this and enjoy our time to see what will happen in the future.

[Paniudto]

It won't easy to the users if bitcoin will continue to decrease because a lot of users are now depend on it but if we have a lot of hard work to promote it more to new investors I think it will save bitcoin price in future so probably many will back and patronize bitcoin.

I think the whales has something to do with this dip because they are the ones with the resources of manipulating bitcoin's price. We are just a small fish here that won't make a difference.

[Predict0r]

Bitbet can be used to automate the 18 month countdown. Im sure you can find some rich guys in this forum willing to take the bet and make a lot of money on you being right and us being wrong.

Intrigued, I looked into BitBet.  Most sites discussing it are dead, and the place itself has had major ups and downs.  I doubt there's any way for me to safely invest enough money to make a speculation on this trend worthwhile.  I'm certainly not going to risk an escrow loss as well.

So I'll just watch.  I think BC clearly demonstrated its utility over the first 7-8 years, and that's at $400 or maybe $600.  All the harangue of the past 9 months will coast down back to that.

[maxamus]

It won't easy to the users if bitcoin will continue to decrease because a lot of users are now depend on it but if we have a lot of hard work to promote it more to new investors I think it will save bitcoin price in future so probably many will back and patronize bitcoin.

I think the whales has something to do with this dip because they are the ones with the resources of manipulating bitcoin's price. We are just a small fish here that won't make a difference.

I feel the same and I think it's a plan to make the market bleed by withdrawing huge amount so that they can buy it again and have it for the bull run which is speculated to be at the end of this year again.

[batang_bitcoin]

Nice name, predict0r and you are telling things according to your opinion and prediction.

Don't say word that might shot you on the future, just remember that there are well known person who said that Bitcoin is a bubble but now they are on the top 100 earning from it and advertise it!

It's okay if his saying it, that's his opinion and his entitled for that.

So I'll just watch. 

Good luck watching the market, we may feel bad during the downs but you'll also understand how it feels when all things you have said go well oppositely to what you are saying.

[exstasie]

So I'll just watch.  I think BC clearly demonstrated its utility over the first 7-8 years, and that's at $400 or maybe $600.  All the harangue of the past 9 months will coast down back to that.

How could you begin to quantify its "utility" into a dollar amount? Things like "sound money" and "censorship resistance" don't equate to numbers.

More than that, what makes you think price could ever reach this baseline "true" value? This market has, since inception, been trying to speculatively value Bitcoin's future utility, not its present utility.

[Predict0r]

You guys are all the same - except for the real dummies here who just get whipsawed by your blather.  Yeah... who are we kidding?

In response to any specific challenge you either make grand statements about civilization, global politics, and economics in general, or drop back to charting minutiae because, well, charts drive the market.  Or a half dozen other obfuscatory arguments.

Anunymint is most regrettable, though most risible, because his acidic ranting is so inflammatory.  Those with no knowledge of history or any perspective, and perhaps with few personal prospects, will be attracted and possibly radicalized.  Hitler worked the same way.  Anunymint (A) posits destruction of conventional finance (!) but... but (B) in such a way that his blockchain accounts are still valued (!) which requires believing that (C) it's all a world government conspiracy, ignoring the fact that (D) our governments couldn't secretly conspire on a surprise party at McDonalds and (E) that the 300 million desperate folks around him won't come for his assets while (F) farmers will still give him bread for BTC.  I could go on, but the man is a fool.  Or a complete hypocrite and just writes crap like that as hysteria clickbait for his blog.

Extasie and others resort to exaggeration, distortion, and slogan.  How can I know the future utility of bitcoin?  How can such an asset be worthless?  How can we value censorship resistance (yeah, how can we - beg the question much)?  On and on.

What I said and showed was clear.  The 2017 bulge in bitcoin value was manufactured.  So it will tend to sink back to its former value.  Too little has changed in the macro picture to drive anything else.  What about that don't you understand?  I gave you numbers:  $400-$600 in 18 months.  So then you switch from generalities to argue about the exact value...  It doesn't matter - your account will drop by 90%!  Or 85%.  Or 95%.  It's all terrible.

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

Then, because I'm in mutual funds - an utterly different vehicle - I have to somehow compare aspects of those with aspects of bitcoin, as if that's relevant to the main point.

I never said bitcoin won't someday be very valuable!  Maybe it will; nobody knows.  I never said it doesn't have profound economic and perhaps social significance.  I'm in awe of blockchain technology and hope it will help the world.  But between now and the end of 2019, the MOST LIKELY (read that phrase and THINK ABOUT IT - those that have the brainpower) event for BTC is a coastdown to near its pre-Q3 2017 level.  If you're simply betting, you never go against "most likely".

Clelland wants to bet.  I won't really, but would in theory be glad to put down $10K if I could get 20:1 odds on the BTC 30-day MA reaching $600 in 18 months + 30 days.  Or 10:1 odds on $800.  Or something similar.  So big forum guys with all the answers (and I mean literally), who would take that bet?  Remember that by the time you have to pay off (in dollars), your bitcoin will be worth one-tenth of what it is today.

You'll find me on the sidelines, as stated.  I wouldn't put a nickel into bitcoin right now.

[sidhujag]

so mtgox was manufactured but it still went to 20k after that. the first rise above $100 was also manufactured by a few people. In general price is right and theres no such thing as the price shouldnt have gone there.

What do you think will happen when all that smart money sold at 20k now want back in? fundamentals did not change to suggest they go back to the old slow legacy rate targetted toilet paper.

You are playing with fire if your RR does not factor in target market to figure out price targets. Trade expectancy is hard with Bitcoin and crypto in general. This is why it is an enigma.

[webdevmastery]

By the most logical thinking:

•  There's strong evidence that the late 2017 spike in Bitcoin value was due to manipulation via Tether.

•  IF that is so, then that entire episode actually means nothing, and...

•  Bitcoin etc values will decay back to their historical levels prior to pump & dump.

•  This will be slow because interim buyers won't want to take the losses.

Look at BC charts for the past 6 months.  It's very easy to imagine the average value continuing to decay down to $400 in 12-18 months.  And that's what makes sense - at least, more sense than anything else.

A few brilliant traders will make money getting in and out during the decline, but all the other players here are just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.  The only "charting" you need is the big picture here:

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

Unfortunately, there seems to be no reliable way to buy a put on BC for that time-frame, or I would.

In my own opinion, no matter how the market drop its prices, cryptocurrnecy will still be able to recover because there are still a lot of people who are interested on investing.

[Ramtapsbtc]

By the most logical thinking:

•  There's strong evidence that the late 2017 spike in Bitcoin value was due to manipulation via Tether.

•  IF that is so, then that entire episode actually means nothing, and...

•  Bitcoin etc values will decay back to their historical levels prior to pump & dump.

•  This will be slow because interim buyers won't want to take the losses.

Look at BC charts for the past 6 months.  It's very easy to imagine the average value continuing to decay down to $400 in 12-18 months.  And that's what makes sense - at least, more sense than anything else.

A few brilliant traders will make money getting in and out during the decline, but all the other players here are just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.  The only "charting" you need is the big picture here:

https://imgur.com/a/QTYOQyL

Unfortunately, there seems to be no reliable way to buy a put on BC for that time-frame, or I would.

Cryptocurrency and blockchain technology are here to stay and thats the future, there are many coins created and will be created but the ones which are of  value to the people ,the ones which serve some particular purpose are used and will continue  to be used and thats BITCOIN.

[Tigorss]

•  Bitcoin etc values will decay back to their historical levels prior to pump & dump.

If this happens, what else do you expect the market to do. I was reading and waiting for you to send a link to indicate the short down of bitcoin and probably, the introduction of another.

When prices start to look down sharply, there will be panic selling action that trigger a deeper price correction again. Nevertheless, the digital money that survives will gain an unprecedented growth