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February 14, 2014, 07:30:48 PM
Last edit: February 14, 2014, 07:44:37 PM by MatTheCat |
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It would be reasonable to assume that such a rapid rise in price in amongst a shit-storm of bearish indicators came about as some kind of bullish euphoria to the ray of light poking through the dark clouds, that was Stamp re-enabling BTC withdrawals.
What remains to be seen is how the market psychology responds now that this outburst of positive market emotion has played out. For me, to turn bullish, I want to see a rise and trend above $700, testing and turning that $700-$720 into a clear support level as opposed to a resistance level. This is the same rule that I have stuck to all the way down, and every single time so far, that crucial resistance level which I am looking to be turned into a support level, is shifted further and further down the price scale. Assuming that Bitcoin isn't headed for it's grave, the trend reversal will come and their will be a time when cautious bears like myself really will have missed the bottom. Perhaps this is that time? Unfortunately it just so happens that there are no other clear pivotal price points in between $540 and $700, which means missing out on a lot of upside due to waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (at least going by the TA 101 that I apply).
My suspicions are however, that we are not yet 'there'. It would be unorthodox for such a bear trend to end with a spike down to a price some $200 lower than the next clear pivotal price range. I suspect that like the two previous bitcoin post crash markets prior to this Dec 2013 post crash market, that the lowest low will be waved under out noses allowing plenty opportunity for investors to pick up coins. This could only come about if sentiment amongst many Bitcoin holders is in the garbage bin, after all, enough people have to feel like it is a good idea to sell Bitcoins at the absolute bottom. Despite the fear and uncertainty that has been going around, I just don't feel that much pessimism in the air yet.....
.....but as always, I will be prepared to lose the opinion and go with the flow if the markets can prove and confirm my opinion as wrong...i.e. $700-$720 resistance level confirmed as support.
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