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February 15, 2014, 11:42:02 PM |
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In simple terms?: Because there's little reason for litecoin to exist.
Litecoin is the same as bitcoin, without the first-mover advantage, network effects, mindshare, or infrastructure. At best, it *may* offer some sort of vague "insurance" blockchain against bitcoin's (but that's a pretty weak argument, given that, especially as we saw this week, issues in bitcoin are likely to be mirrored in all derivative alts). I'd say best case, ltc value caps at 1/40th bitcoin's (1/4 from the supply size, and then minus an order of magnitude for all the above reasons).
Note I said best case. Most likely, I think, far less. Litecoin in the past could be held up as "interesting" by people who didn't think particularly well/deeply about the space, while there weren't many other alts out there. Now that there are, it's clear that even things like Dogecoin have the potential to unseat LTC as the alt princess of the day. At least Doge is a fascinating exercise in internet viral marketing.
Ultimately I think we'll see next-gen alts that truly offer unique capabilities steal first-gen alt's thunder.
Each new, even slightly successful, alt likely takes market-share from the existing derivative alts more than anything else, and for the time being, with litecoin as the highest capitalized alt, it has the most to lose.
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