Chooo, chooo! Everyone agrees, it's reversal time! ... except for Bitfinex.

[oda.krell]

Why more faith in EMA than SMA?

I have no way of giving a conclusive answer, but basically, when I hunt for signs of trends by looking at price in relation to moving averages, I tend to get much clearer patterns using EMA than SMA. But that's really hard to *prove* in a proper way, so I can't just say much more than: I personally work better with them.

Sorry for a bit of a disappointingly uninformative answer :/

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[MatTheCat]

And that's why it's probably a bad idea to ever let your leveraged position "sitting" for longer than a few hours. Don't know what's the technical term is for that...

What I mean is, I can see how leveraged trading makes sense during, and I really mean: right during a violent swing. But I simply can't ever imagine placing the same bet *and then walking away from the computer*. But maybe more skilled traders know what they're doing...

Go back to the $100 flash crashes on the two shorting exchanges, BTC-E and Bitfinex. Anyone sitting with a leveraged long position would have taken a 100% hit on their capital before they had the chance to exit the market. These things happen in Bitcoin all the time, whether it be a server hack (as applies to those two as far as I am concerned) or some mad dump. Never seen a $600 dollar 2 minute spike up the way though. Conclusion, leveraged shorting is far safer in this market than leveraged long trading. Setting Stop Losses on Bitfinec or BTC-e is just asking to have your arse farmed and money stolen of you. Therefore trading long with leverage is prohibitive.

But you are probably right regarding the timing of leveraged trades..I do leveraged shorts during static market trends because I am an impulsive idiot... Leverage is only for when you are really sure that the market is about to make a big move. Right now for example, many people believe that the market is in for a text book 66% correction and therefore the short trades are maxed to the full. This has probably determined the recent tight market as sellers cancel out buyers, and exchange associate bots sit and happily knudge the momentum up to farm low risk tolerant traders leveraged short bets, whilst making the odd brief soiree to the lower trend line to farm the longs (yup, I believe BTC-e and Bitfinex are corrupt places and actively practice squeezing of leveraged traders with perfect market knowledge in order to enhance their profits......many of these 'peculiar' huge Bid Walls that appear on Stamp are actually being made on Bitfinex).

What I think is away to happen at the end of this pennant formation is a break up the way, which will squeeze shorts out of the trade further pushing price higher and which will turn out to be a bull trap of sorts. Longs will pile in, and then will come the dumps, forcing a correction, but only down to around the $550 level where the dumpers will be competing to get back in and take their scumbag rat bastard profits. I just don't feel $400 range Bitcoin occurring anytime soon and think the near-medium term trend from here is mostly up. However, in light of TERA's pointing out the odd indicator signals of this particular crash, I do believe that we will be visiting the $400 range and possibly lower before we see any ATHs.

Fuck Gox and all those other stories that are attributed to price movement. Bitcoin is behaving like it is because it is being fucked with by people who are milking it for everything they can get out it. I am turning bullish for the time being, but long term, I am still a bear and believe lower lows are yet to come some ways down the line. Bitcoin doesn't flash crash to make its final capitulation bottom and then almost recover within one day. This just does not feel like a low to me. Too much euphoria and back slapping going on for that. Even I predicted 'bottom' within $20 (too low unfortunately for me) weeks and weeks ago using the most rudimentary TA 101 skills. Seems all far too textbook for my liking. I didn't follow Bitcoin so closely until November 2013, but I am pretty sure that with the last two post bubble bear trend lows, that people actually involved in Bitcoin felt like the end was nigh.

We will see how things go when we get back up to the $800 level.

Cheers for the link btw.

[chesthing]

Not sure why you are short term bullish, Joe Blow is out for now, this shit is going down again soon.

[MatTheCat]

Not sure why you are short term bullish, Joe Blow is out for now, this shit is going down again soon.

Yep. Joe blow isn't running to the market with bundles of fiat to pour it into Bitcoin. Joe blow is sending Emails to his Bitcoiner mates warning him that Bitcoin is doomed. That is one of the reasons why I am still bearish in the longer term and believe that lower lows will come.

But are you still trading Bitcoin?

Is everyone who was already trading Bitcoin still trading Bitcoin?

Of course they all are. And most of them believe that the low was in, and most of them are now bullish as hell, with starry eyed visions of $5K by June 2014!

This alone along with a great many other 'reversal' technical indicators suggests to me that after support is found anywhere anywhere between $470 -$550, that Bitcoin will trend up. Market manipulators will both allow and encourage this as the more fiat that pours into Bitcoin, the better it is for them. There are a shit ton of clueless idiots got dirty rich in Bitcoin. That means a shit-ton of money to be emptied into the koffers of the syndicate that I am calling the Chinese Cyber Cowboys. I have no proof that such a truppe of bandit hackers exist in Bitcoinland, but I did have a dream about them, all the major action in Bitcoin occurs during Chine Prime Time (when all the rest of us want to be in our beds), and Huobi is by far the most 'influential' Bitcoin exchange.

[chesthing]

Huh-uh. Most that are still in are not going to pay $600/btc - they are not starry-eyed, that would be Joe Blow when he sees the price spike. I don't think any rational person into btc really thinks this whole Mtcocks thing is over and done with and on the train we go. Some here say they are but are they talking their book? We are going down again.

[Dragonkiller]

Not sure why you are short term bullish, Joe Blow is out for now, this shit is going down again soon.

Yep. Joe blow isn't running to the market with bundles of fiat to pour it into Bitcoin. Joe blow is sending Emails to his Bitcoiner mates warning him that Bitcoin is doomed. That is one of the reasons why I am still bearish in the longer term and believe that lower lows will come.

But are you still trading Bitcoin?

Is everyone who was already trading Bitcoin still trading Bitcoin?

Of course they all are. And most of them believe that the low was in, and most of them are now bullish as hell, with starry eyed visions of $5K by June 2014!

This alone along with a great many other 'reversal' technical indicators suggests to me that after support is found anywhere anywhere between $470 -$550, that Bitcoin will trend up. Market manipulators will both allow and encourage this as the more fiat that pours into Bitcoin, the better it is for them. There are a shit ton of clueless idiots got dirty rich in Bitcoin. That means a shit-ton of money to be emptied into the koffers of the syndicate that I am calling the Chinese Cyber Cowboys. I have no proof that such a truppe of bandit hackers exist in Bitcoinland, but I did have a dream about them, all the major action in Bitcoin occurs during Chine Prime Time (when all the rest of us want to be in our beds), and Huobi is by far the most 'influential' Bitcoin exchange.

Joe Blow doesn't move markets

[johnny211]

Not sure why you are short term bullish, Joe Blow is out for now, this shit is going down again soon.

Once Joe is out, we go up.

[chesthing]

Sure he does, you think the November spike was holders and early adopters? Joe Blow is either doing 1 of 2 things, and neither of them is buying right now.
I doubt we will see $400 again in the next few days, but this choo choo train shit is pure denial.

[pungopete468]

Still looks like a bear market to me...

The good news is; unless we get some more seriously bad news soon, our next dip will probably find the bottom and ignite a trend reversal.

[MatTheCat]

Sure he does, you think the November spike was holders and early adopters? Joe Blow is either doing 1 of 2 things, and neither of them is buying right now.

Although I have bought and spent (and even held without necessarily speculating) Bitcoins since 2011, in November 2013, I was Joe Blow. And charging in I came, with what started as £5K of capital and what has snowballed into £15K of capital into the market.

What could have tempted me?

Maniacal news reports and ever increasing price?

The fact that I just sold 15 'unneeded Silk Road' coins at $340, and then had a dream of Bitcoins going through $600?

A combination of them all is the truth.

Now as a novice trader who is learning all the time, notwithstanding probable further near term corrections to find a support above the $400 bottom, everything I know about TA (not that much to be fair) and the general feeling I have in my bones (served me damn well up till now), tells me that right about here, at a carefully chosen price point, Bitcoin is a good near term investment.

In the meantime, I am getting Emails and text messages from worried friends and family concerned for my well being after the catastrophic collapse of 'the biggest and most important Bitcoin exchange'.

Joe Blow is not touching Bitcoin right now with a 10ft long shitty bargepole. But Joe Trader knows that at least for the time being, Bitcoin should generally rise, as opposed to go on to find new lows in the immediate future. Most likely lower lows are coming before new ATH, just not quite yet.

[chesthing]

Your friends and family are right to be concerned, they don't want you knocking on their doors broke asking for help lol. They represent the general public, whom btc needs for any serious rise. Saying traders will cause an increase is like saying used car lots can exist selling to each other. You need Joe Blow and his cash to raise the market, anyone who doesn't get that is pretty clueless.

[MatTheCat]

Your friends and family are right to be concerned, they don't want you knocking on their doors broke asking for help lol. They represent the general public, whom btc needs for any serious rise. Saying traders will cause an increase is like saying used car lots can exist selling to each other. You need Joe Blow and his cash to raise the market, anyone who doesn't get that is pretty clueless.

You need Joe Blow and his cash to hit new ATH's. He is not needed to raise the market. Bitcoin is already awash with liquidity enough from pre-existing traders.

After all, was it Joe Blow who was responsible for raising market from $380 to $1000, Dec 17th - Jan 6th?

[chesthing]

No pro is going to get caught holding $1k coins, so yeah - I think Joe had a lot to do with that rise.

[cdooer]

Your friends and family are right to be concerned, they don't want you knocking on their doors broke asking for help lol. They represent the general public, whom btc needs for any serious rise. Saying traders will cause an increase is like saying used car lots can exist selling to each other. You need Joe Blow and his cash to raise the market, anyone who doesn't get that is pretty clueless.

You need Joe Blow and his cash to hit new ATH's. He is not needed to raise the market. Bitcoin is already awash with liquidity enough from pre-existing traders.

After all, was it Joe Blow who was responsible for raising market from $380 to $1000, Dec 17th - Jan 6th?

Wait a second, whoa whoa whoa...I thought it was Sum Yung Guy who was responsible for raising the market?

[chesthing]

Joe comes in all colors. The point is for every dollar made on every rise there is a dollar lost. That's why people call this a Ponzie scheme, we aren't betting on anything but vapor. So, do you think pros gave money to pros or Joe gave money to pros on that rise? my bet is Joe was the main buyer up top.
You know I'm right Matt, you've said it all in prior posts. This has been a game to make money off Joe for quite awhile now. Underneath it all is some really cool shit though, which is why I'm interested and trying to gather coins cheaply for the long term. If I thought this was really nothing more than a scheme I'd never have looked twice at it.