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Author Topic: Too many new coins, not enough new Bitcoiners  (Read 4870 times)
FAtlas
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October 06, 2011, 08:23:13 PM
 #21

Then one day a big country pulls an Argentina (in the same way B7 pulled a MyBitcoin) and what remains of the middle class find their ATM's no longer work right.  If that happens, and it does not strike me as particularly far-fetched given the difficulty maintaining stability in the 'official' monetary systems these days, it will be very interesting at least and possibly very lucrative to have some BTC squirreled away.  It's worth putting a bet on...to me at least.

So keeping your money in a system that's losing value in a way unseen since the Zimbabwe dollar is a way to insure against the unlikely chance that somehow there will be a simultaneous run on all US banks because ________?  And at that point people will want to barter in BTC instead of usable commodities such as canned food, water, and ammunition because _______?

You're really going to need to fill in the blanks for me on this one because your hypothetical is on par with aliens landing and establishing BTC as the world currency by force.

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October 06, 2011, 08:38:03 PM
 #22

Then one day a big country pulls an Argentina (in the same way B7 pulled a MyBitcoin) and what remains of the middle class find their ATM's no longer work right.  If that happens, and it does not strike me as particularly far-fetched given the difficulty maintaining stability in the 'official' monetary systems these days, it will be very interesting at least and possibly very lucrative to have some BTC squirreled away.  It's worth putting a bet on...to me at least.

So keeping your money in a system that's losing value in a way unseen since the Zimbabwe dollar is a way to insure against the unlikely chance that somehow there will be a simultaneous run on all US banks because ________?

It's a cheap and easy bet, and because I value some of the capabilities that Bitcoin offers at the present time.

I'll spare you the effort asserting that long-shot wacko conspiracy bets cannot pay off.  That contention has already been invalidated in a tangible way to me.

And at that point people will want to barter in BTC instead of usable commodities such as canned food, water, and ammunition because _______?

Capital controls don't necessarily equate the kind of Mad Max world that you are probably imagining.  Most often they are more of a gentle caress, one might say.

Actually I _am_ envisioning a 'Mad Max' world, but it will be at the sub-atomic level where you won't probably notice it so much.

You're really going to need to fill in the blanks for me on this one because your hypothetical is on par with aliens landing and establishing BTC as the world currency by force.

Always happy to help.

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October 06, 2011, 09:15:39 PM
 #23

Rinse and repeat until there are three bitcoiners left at $0.10 a coin

I wish I had 1/3rd of the Bitcoin supply at $0.10. Not because I want all that bitcoin, but because it's be nice to have $700,000USD worth just lying around.

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October 06, 2011, 09:26:17 PM
 #24

I would rather have 7000 coins at 1000 each,  because people would be clamoring and bidding them up to 1500 each.


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October 06, 2011, 11:25:54 PM
 #25

slothbag,

 I've been bitching about the inflation rate and printing off bitcoins at a rate that would even make the Federal Reserve squirm...  you'll be preaching to deaf ears..    people here won't listen to that type of logic.



And you've still never addressed the following - the money printing rate was the same (actually higher in percentage terms) when bitcoins were priced at $0.01 and at $30.  Of all the variables in the Bitcoin economy, the printing rate is NOT one of them. It's perfectly steady, yet you seem obsessed with attributing a declining market price on that aspect. It's as if you're inferring that Bitcoin has lost its way because we're now printing so much money   Roll Eyes  

If and when the price rises again, people will start complaining instead about bitcoin being "deflationary" - not printing fast enough. Price rising? "Bitcion will fail cause it's deflationary."  Price falling? "Bitcoin is doomed because we're printing so much money!"

While I love a skyrocketing price as much as anyone, for those who understand the true value of these coins, this falling price is a blessing. Be greedy when others are fearful (although I hate quoting the socialist, hypocritical Warren Buffett).

LOL!  I knew you would be the one to reply to this one Smiley

I did address it...  the printing money rate isn't the same as the adoption rate,  not even close.

picture this, because this is what is happening (i'm going to use simple figures rather than the real ones for simplicity sake).

-------
January - 5 bitcoins printed  -  10 people enter market each wanting 1 bitcoin  - price rises
February - 5 bitcoins printed - 11 people enter market each wanting 1 bitcoin - prices rise faster
March  - 5 bitcoins printed - 20 people enter market each wanting 1 bitcoin - prices skyrocket
April - 5 bitcoins printed - 4 people enter market wanting 1 bitcoin - prices tank
May - 5 bitcoins printed - 3 people enter market wanting 1 bitcoin - prices tank
Jun - 5 bitcoins printed - 2 people enter market wanting 1 bitcoin - prices tank.
------
July spot price -  5 dollars

If it was able to be adjusted

-----------------
January - 5 bitcoins printed  -  10 people enter market each wanting 1 bitcoin  - price rises
February - 5 bitcoins printed - 11 people enter market each wanting 1 bitcoin - prices rise faster
March  - 5 bitcoins printed - 20 people enter market each wanting 1 bitcoin - prices skyrocket
April - 1 bitcoin printed - 4 people enter market wanting 1 bitcoin - prices skyrocket
May - 5 bitcoins printed - 30 people enter market wanting 1 bitcoin - prices skyrocket
Jun - 5 bitcoins printed - 45 people enter market wanting 1 bitcoin - prices skyrocket
------------------
July spot price 50 dollars.


In the above,  by taking action for just one month (April)  and reducing the amount printed it changes the whole dynamics of it...  the end result would still be 21 million coins at the end,  just stabilize it to match demand and keep the asset price growing...  because when people see the price booming more start entering... hence increasing demand.



That's very troubling sentiment... manipulating the money supply is precisely the reason fiat currencies are destined for failure. There is no legitimate reason to manipulate the price higher and higher. It may provide short term happiness to those holding coins, but it distorts the market signals that free-floating prices provide. Such manipulation would be the end of Bitcoin's value.

The movement of prices are not arbitrary. They allocate and coordinate how resources are utilized. If the supply rate of Bitcoins were restricted in order to assure a constantly rising price, you'd instantly create a speculative bubble, for every investor would buy as many coins as possible, knowing the price will be "managed" upward. The price would skyrocket - but to what end? Are Bitcoins worth $50 right now? Or $1,000?  None of us know. And when that bubble you produce pops, the devastation will be ruinous.

The ability of the price to fall is JUST AS important as the ability of it to rise. Tinker with it one way or the other, and you distort human behavior. If you think you're wise enough to distort it in a positive way, then you're suffering from the same affliction and hubris of all fiat central bankers - believing they are smart enough to know the "proper" market price of any asset. It is folly. And it's precisely because so many fall for the myths of central planning that Bitcoin is so necessary, and so valuable.

The day the money supply is tinkered with (including the derivative rate of such supply), I'm gone. I'll peace out like the Lorax.


evorhees is right.
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October 07, 2011, 12:39:26 AM
 #26

That's tosh. No-one in their right mind would price their goods in BTC. Bitcoin is a method of payment - it doesn't matter what the price of BTC is as long as there is convertibility - easy convertibility is the important factor, not stable exchange rates.

Good luck convincing the Crypto-currency world to change the name to crypto-method-of-payment. People want to use BTC as a currency. A real one. Not a commodity that has to jump through at least one exchange hoop for every single transaction. That hoop has to be less annoying than using a credit card online, and currently, it's not. It's lucky the novelty and ease of use for grey/black markets has sustaining power. Otherwise, you wouldn't see this thing last a week.

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October 07, 2011, 12:56:56 AM
 #27

Good luck convincing the Crypto-currency world to change the name to crypto-method-of-payment. People want to use BTC as a currency. A real one.

It may become a defacto currency in time. But only if it succeeds a method of payment first. One step at a time.

The internet is freedom to communicate without permission. Crypto is freedom to trade without permission.

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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October 07, 2011, 01:29:24 AM
 #28

Bitcoin is like electric cars. Most people think they are a great idea, but nobody will buy one because they don't want to get stuck somewhere. Here's the thing, bitcoin is open source software that can evolve into a Mr Fusion Powered DeLorean in the next few months. Maybe we just need a bitcoin hybrid for awhile, but really greed will make it happen. It can and probably will go viral. Wait for it.. wait for it..

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
FAtlas
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Violenth ith not compathion.


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October 07, 2011, 07:43:01 PM
 #29

Here we go again.

Sell sell sell

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tvbcof
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October 07, 2011, 08:43:37 PM
 #30

Here we go again.

Sell sell sell

Hmmm...what have we here?  Decide to put a little marble on the roulette wheel just in case?

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October 07, 2011, 09:49:15 PM
 #31

It's low today was 3.75 ...  and while it was crashing we printed an additional 7200 coins

let me know when you guys believe it's becoming mindless.


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October 07, 2011, 09:52:12 PM
 #32

It's low today was 3.75 ...  and while it was crashing we printed an additional 7200 coins

let me know when you guys believe it's becoming mindless.

Why are you wasting your time? People are not going to change the rules. Just make a new currency and/or borrow coins.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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October 07, 2011, 10:17:15 PM
 #33

It's low today was 3.75 ...  and while it was crashing we printed an additional 7200 coins

let me know when you guys believe it's becoming mindless.

Why are you wasting your time? People are not going to change the rules. Just make a new currency and/or borrow coins.

No I'm not wasting my time,..  I believe that there is light at the end of the tunnel ...  it's just until now till the payoff is cut in half it's going to get dark.   My guesstimate is that it will go under a dollar before it starts creeping back up...   eventually it's possible to see it at over 1500 a coin... but not for a few years... 






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FAtlas
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Violenth ith not compathion.


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October 07, 2011, 10:22:50 PM
 #34

It's low today was 3.75 ...  and while it was crashing we printed an additional 7200 coins

let me know when you guys believe it's becoming mindless.

Why are you wasting your time? People are not going to change the rules. Just make a new currency and/or borrow coins.

No I'm not wasting my time,..  I believe that there is light at the end of the tunnel ...  it's just until now till the payoff is cut in half it's going to get dark.   My guesstimate is that it will go under a dollar before it starts creeping back up...   eventually it's possible to see it at over 1500 a coin... but not for a few years... 

Bruce Wagner spotted

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October 07, 2011, 10:24:33 PM
 #35

It's low today was 3.75 ...  and while it was crashing we printed an additional 7200 coins

let me know when you guys believe it's becoming mindless.



I'm just waiting for flipping PARITY man !!!
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October 07, 2011, 10:52:30 PM
 #36

It's low today was 3.75 ...  and while it was crashing we printed an additional 7200 coins

let me know when you guys believe it's becoming mindless.



I do not want the price to drop.  But it will.  The network is just too big right now.  It is not hugely oversized but  in my estimation it is 2x too big but that is just my crazy guess.  When the network gets down to 5TH and the price gets down to 2, it will be more 'right sized' as a currency with less dollars going out the door to electricity.  The network can stay stable at that price for a long time as more people adopt coin.  Then it will slowly grow again.

Hopefully the price will grow in a more steady even pace, that is related more to the use of bitcoin then the speculation on its future.

There is nothing wrong with the rules as they stand.  Things just got (very) ahead of themselves.  This is the market correcting itself. 


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October 07, 2011, 11:07:25 PM
 #37

Too much panic here, we need to be more proactive.


How can we increase the Bitcoin Awarness?


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October 07, 2011, 11:41:00 PM
 #38

It's low today was 3.75 ...  and while it was crashing we printed an additional 7200 coins

let me know when you guys believe it's becoming mindless.



I do not want the price to drop.  But it will.  The network is just too big right now.  It is not hugely oversized but  in my estimation it is 2x too big but that is just my crazy guess.  When the network gets down to 5TH and the price gets down to 2, it will be more 'right sized' as a currency with less dollars going out the door to electricity.  The network can stay stable at that price for a long time as more people adopt coin.  Then it will slowly grow again.

Hopefully the price will grow in a more steady even pace, that is related more to the use of bitcoin then the speculation on its future.

There is nothing wrong with the rules as they stand.  Things just got (very) ahead of themselves.  This is the market correcting itself. 


If the right size is smaller then so be it, but I'm always rooting for higher. I can make way more awesome stuff at 100 per than 5 per. And that's a completely healthy situation. 

Bitcoin is mindless.

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October 08, 2011, 03:08:14 AM
 #39

Here we go again.

Sell sell sell
nooo
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October 18, 2011, 03:51:22 AM
 #40

Right now btc are minted at a fast pace, but we are not alone:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrEBSe2qZ2o&feature=youtu.be&t=2m1s


Despite 95% of the notes produced each year at the money factory are used to replace old ones, 100 bills has a lifespam of 7.2 years. Go figure.

http://www.moneyfactory.gov/uscurrency/annualproductionfigures.html

You guys have really come up with somethin'
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