BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[jl2012]

Today is the one-year anniversary of this thread. If you like it, please consider to donate a couple bits.

Date:    16-Feb-2015
VWAP:    235.99
x:    1675
a:    0.00528
b:    -1.42439
Rsq:    0.88394
The day's expected price:    1658.60
Actual price / expected price:   14.23%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.950
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   178.57
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   10737.53
Predicted date for today's price:    11-Feb-2014
Days ahead:    -369.55
Daily price rank:    439
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00527648848506147++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.42439141368009+%29

[1714032344]

1714032344

[jl2012]

After reaching the -2.149 recent low, we are floating around -1.9 to -2.0

All-time:


Since 2015:

[rpietila]

I am on the opinion that this presents a very low risk/good upside entry point, regardless of the intended timeframe of the investment. Of course such investments should be made with a 5-10 year timeframe, and with equity that "you can afford to lose".

[uki]

I am on the opinion that this presents a very low risk/good upside entry point, regardless of the intended timeframe of the investment. Of course such investments should be made with a 5-10 year timeframe, and with equity that "you can afford to lose".

cannot agree more. There may be some movement to the downside, yet the risk of coming down to say $50 is relatively low in comparison to the possible upside potential.

[jl2012]

Thanks for the 0.16354143BTC or 40USD donation!

[knight]

I am on the opinion that this presents a very low risk/good upside entry point, regardless of the intended timeframe of the investment. Of course such investments should be made with a 5-10 year timeframe, and with equity that "you can afford to lose".

If you take bitcoin as a technology, you don't have to think in 5-10 years timeframe. Technology is fast-paced and so is Bitcoin. This will get lots of people with their guards down, hoping there is plenty of time to buy or sell. But price can triple within weeks and go to one third even faster.

[Wekkel]

I would rather see it from a social point of view. Man does not changes his way easily, especially with something so misunderstood like money. It will take time but the seed - a great idea - has been planted.

An idea whose time has come,  is unstoppable.

[jl2012]

What happen next?

Red: up
Blue: down
Purple: double bottom then up?



Since 2015:


Date:    16-Mar-2015
VWAP:    290.78
x:    1703
a:    0.00517
b:    -1.36231
Rsq:    0.87788
The day's expected price:    1696.02
Actual price / expected price:   17.14%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.763
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   182.60
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   10979.78
Predicted date for today's price:    8-Apr-2014
Days ahead:    -341.34
Daily price rank:    427
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00516637853917161++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.36230541558996+%29   
   
   
   
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    1-Jan-2015

[HarmonLi]

Really looking good your last post, jl2012! It really feels like the previous attempts to break the downtrend in May 2014 and maybe November 2014 just didn't 'work out'. I think this is it. The rocket.

[uki]

It may also depend on what happens at the stock markets. At the last crossroads (marked in the blue in the chart) the stocks were still not ready for the dump, but if we wait a month more that may be another red point!

[danielW]

Im curious about update now.

This is my favourite (most useful?) thread on the speculation forum btw .

[jl2012]

update:

Date:    23-Apr-2015
VWAP:    234.47
x:    1741
a:    0.00502
b:    -1.27545
Rsq:    0.86859
The day's expected price:    1730.63
Actual price / expected price:   13.55%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -1.999
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   186.32
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11203.86
Predicted date for today's price:    20-Mar-2014
Days ahead:    -398.56
Daily price rank:    498
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00501533052855192++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.27545006307597+%29   
   
   
   
Predicted date for ATH ($1126):    2-Feb-2015

[jl2012]

It failed to break -1.75 for the second time, so the first target of recovery is the break -1.75, which is about $300 now.

[jl2012]

Update

Date:    25-May-2015
VWAP:    236.29
x:    1773
a:    0.00489
b:    -1.20180
Rsq:    0.86034
The day's expected price:    1750.69
Actual price / expected price:   13.50%
Log(Actual price / expected price)   -2.003
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   188.48
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   11333.73
Predicted date for today's price:    10-Apr-2014
Days ahead:    -409.57
Daily price rank:    504
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00488977408741423++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-1.2018042295349+%29   

[jl2012]

It's quite stable, around -2.0

[Biodom]

It's quite stable, around -2.0

>snip images<

thanks for an update. scraping the bottom?
Previous downtrend was reversed with a V, but this time it looks different so far.

[rpietila]

If you do the 1:2.5 time scaling as well, the slide to the previous major bottom and the situation now look somewhat similar

Well I am not completely joking. The maturity brings inertia.

The influx of VC money to the Bitcoinsphere is almost out-of-whack with the current valuation of the coin. A few explanations come to mind (none to all of them may be correct):

- VC's are stupid
- the gov/banks are behind all of it and want to destroy the coin, and it's not a big deal how many dollars they must create to accomplish it
- the above, except they are not necessary up to killing it, just gaining a stranglehold as they did with gold and morphed it into fiat in a century-long process in 1871-1971
- The valuation is low and the people in-the-know see a good chance of reigniting the mania, gaining their investments back nicely
- The valuation is kept low by hook and crook, the infrastructure is being built, and also massive amounts of physical bitcoins acquired by the key players in the period of public insecurity

If I had this information and had cash, diversifying into bitcoins now woudl be a prudent action. Don't buy too much, and please remember to think through the storage arrangements, preferably diversifying that as well if the sum is non-trivial.

[jl2012]

It is not difficult to see that -1.75 is a major resistant (now $304). If we would follow the 2011-12 pattern, breaking -1.75 would lead us to the next resistant level of -1.5 to -1.25 (now $390-$500)

[coinableS]

This is a fun thread. Thanks for posting. Looks like we might double bottom on your chart and then go up from there.

[Wary]

Here is x2.5 time scaling