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Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 109116 times)
jl2012
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May 05, 2017, 06:17:29 AM
 #401

New high since 2014: -0.84

Date:    4-May-2017
BETI:   -0.840
VWAP:    1540.55
x:    2483
a:    0.00335
b:    -0.15071
Rsq:    0.80331
The day's expected price:    3567.32
Actual price / expected price:   43.18%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   384.07
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   23094.35
Predicted date for today's price:    26-Aug-2016
Days ahead:    -250.28
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00335492477428623++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.150708216888686+%29   

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rpietila
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May 06, 2017, 08:41:53 AM
 #402

jl2012,

Thank you for this service. We appreciate. WTRYs, etc.
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May 06, 2017, 10:35:47 AM
 #403

New high: -0.833

Date:    5-May-2017
BETI:   -0.833
VWAP:    1554.61
x:    2484
a:    0.00335
b:    -0.15004
Rsq:    0.80339
The day's expected price:    3574.51
Actual price / expected price:   43.49%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   384.84
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   23140.89
Predicted date for today's price:    29-Aug-2016
Days ahead:    -248.23
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00335411393062548++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.150035741705351+%29   

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May 06, 2017, 11:51:31 AM
 #404

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA

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May 06, 2017, 04:33:05 PM
 #405

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA



Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

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May 06, 2017, 05:25:32 PM
 #406

jl, I see previous bull market support between -0.5 and -0.25, so I assume that is our next resistance.

What is the approximate price around that zone, if possible?

Cheers!
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May 07, 2017, 06:30:36 AM
 #407

Date:    6-May-2017
BETI:   -0.843
VWAP:    1541.43
x:    2485
a:    0.00335
b:    -0.14936
Rsq:    0.80347
The day's expected price:    3581.65
Actual price / expected price:   43.04%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   385.61
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   23187.12
Predicted date for today's price:    27-Aug-2016
Days ahead:    -251.43
Daily price rank:    2
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00335329351227614++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.14935505125607+%29   

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May 07, 2017, 06:32:22 AM
 #408

jl, I see previous bull market support between -0.5 and -0.25, so I assume that is our next resistance.

What is the approximate price around that zone, if possible?

Cheers!

-0.5: e^-0.5 * 3581.65 = 2172
-0.25: e^-0.25 * 3581.65 = 2789

I think this is a reasonable target for the ATH of this cycle

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May 08, 2017, 10:31:24 AM
 #409

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA



Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands.

For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit):

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+)

Oh how I dreamed of today back then!

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May 25, 2017, 04:33:05 AM
 #410

Date:    24-May-2017
BETI:   -0.448
VWAP:    2383.53
x:    2503
a:    0.00334
b:    -0.13940
Rsq:    0.80536
The day's expected price:    3729.25
Actual price / expected price:   63.91%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   401.50
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   24142.65
Predicted date for today's price:    10-Jan-2017
Days ahead:    -133.97
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00334133418444225++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.139397238706605+%29   

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jl2012
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May 25, 2017, 04:36:53 AM
 #411



It is now within the historical resistance/support zone between -0.5 and -0.25 (about $2261 - $2900)

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jl2012
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May 25, 2017, 04:49:01 AM
 #412

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA



Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands.

For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit):

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+)

Oh how I dreamed of today back then!



You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway


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May 25, 2017, 09:24:54 AM
 #413


You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway



Thanks, I've also been wanting to see it. It's not as useful practically speaking, but it's still a good visual. I've got a similar long term chart with exponential trend line in a spreadsheet.
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May 25, 2017, 09:36:43 AM
 #414


You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway



Thanks, I've also been wanting to see it. It's not as useful practically speaking, but it's still a good visual. I've got a similar long term chart with exponential trend line in a spreadsheet.

If there is one thing interesting, it is the red line never went down since 2012. That means the expected price has always been going up, despite the long bear market from 2014-2016

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May 25, 2017, 01:07:02 PM
 #415

Thank you sir for grossly undervalued service of yours! I have been subscribing to your posts for years now. This this is the last proper thread to my knowledge that has not died out. I really valued Stephen Reed`s and rpietila`s threads as well.

I have been dwelling on the idea of using marketcap instead of btc price itself for these models. Therefore the price would be inflation adjusted because the supply of the currency has changed. Or is it already "priced in" by the market i would imagine??

Do you guys (rpietila) have any ideas how to make most out of this bull run in terms of gaining more btc/diversifying portfolio in this bull run aka "how to know if we have hit the top for this runup"? I think rpietila had some insights about having six consecutive weeks green candles and/or 30 percent daily increase? as a indicator. I know this is near impossible to work out but for someone who has 100 % percent of "wealth"  Grin invested in btc it provides numerous possibilities for deleveraging one`s portfolio.
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May 25, 2017, 01:31:27 PM
 #416

Thank you sir for grossly undervalued service of yours! I have been subscribing to your posts for years now. This this is the last proper thread to my knowledge that has not died out. I really valued Stephen Reed`s and rpietila`s threads as well.

I have been dwelling on the idea of using marketcap instead of btc price itself for these models. Therefore the price would be inflation adjusted because the supply of the currency has changed. Or is it already "priced in" by the market i would imagine??

Do you guys (rpietila) have any ideas how to make most out of this bull run in terms of gaining more btc/diversifying portfolio in this bull run aka "how to know if we have hit the top for this runup"? I think rpietila had some insights about having six consecutive weeks green candles and/or 30 percent daily increase? as a indicator. I know this is near impossible to work out but for someone who has 100 % percent of "wealth"  Grin invested in btc it provides numerous possibilities for deleveraging one`s portfolio.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
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May 25, 2017, 01:47:06 PM
 #417

hi SSS plan sounds reasonable for a person who does not like taking risks which i am not  Grin I guess what I am trying to figure out at what price i want to start raking and what kind of percentage, calculating ones percentage of portfolio makes sense for a person who has outstanding wealth which again i do not  Grin. Thanks for the link, good insights in there.
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May 26, 2017, 04:02:16 AM
 #418

Date:    25-May-2017
BETI:   -0.395
VWAP:    2518.72
x:    2504
a:    0.00334
b:    -0.13908
Rsq:    0.80550
The day's expected price:    3739.37
Actual price / expected price:   67.36%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   402.59
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   24208.16
Predicted date for today's price:    26-Jan-2017
Days ahead:    -118.28
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00334095545799238++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.139080606975029+%29   

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May 26, 2017, 02:47:37 PM
 #419

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA



Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands.

For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit):

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+)

Oh how I dreamed of today back then!



You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway

http://i.imgur.com/pvUyVBz.png

Thanks for putting it together in any case.

I like it as a record of how the line of best fit has changed. As you say, it doesn't change much and it hardly ever points down, and clearly as time passes it will tend to hug the best fit ever more closely - but in retrospect its tangent can be seen as a loose proxy for the market's 'exuberance', irrational or otherwise. Thanks again for your work.
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May 29, 2017, 09:40:07 AM
 #420

I was looking at my own exponential chart and noticed that we aren't relatively that far from the expected price surpassing $4000. If and when the actual Bitcoin price ever gets back above the mean on this chart, well, that'll be a *huge* event. Smiley
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