BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[jl2012]

Date:    31-May-2017
BETI:   -0.517
VWAP:    2264.38
x:    2510
a:    0.00334
b:    -0.13655
Rsq:    0.80627
The day's expected price:    3795.88
Actual price / expected price:   59.65%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   408.67
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   24573.99
Predicted date for today's price:    27-Dec-2016
Days ahead:    -154.77
Daily price rank:    4
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333793840260933++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.136554694291936+%29   

[1713905662]

1713905662

[jl2012]

As predicted, we had some support around -0.5. Today is over -0.5 again.

The next major resistance is -0.25 at $2956, then 0 at $3796.

[jl2012]

Date:    6-Jun-2017
BETI:   -0.314
VWAP:    2818.78
x:    2516
a:    0.00334
b:    -0.13460
Rsq:    0.80712
The day's expected price:    3857.54
Actual price / expected price:   73.07%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   415.31
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   24973.20
Predicted date for today's price:    3-Mar-2017
Days ahead:    -94.05
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333560500258656++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.134596607359385+%29   

[jl2012]

Date:    11-Jun-2017
BETI:   -0.295
VWAP:    2911.89
x:    2521
a:    0.00333
b:    -0.13332
Rsq:    0.80788
The day's expected price:    3912.45
Actual price / expected price:   74.43%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   421.22
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   25328.64
Predicted date for today's price:    14-Mar-2017
Days ahead:    -88.59
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333408979094182++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.133322254723592+%29   

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

The next major resistance is -0.25 at $2956

check

[DieJohnny]

Date:    11-Jun-2017
BETI:   -0.295
VWAP:    2911.89
x:    2521
a:    0.00333
b:    -0.13332
Rsq:    0.80788
The day's expected price:    3912.45
Actual price / expected price:   74.43%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   421.22
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   25328.64
Predicted date for today's price:    14-Mar-2017
Days ahead:    -88.59
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   

Tracking above the exponential trend line hasn't happened for years, but i think we actually break above trend for a few weeks in the coming months, then pull back before having a huge run up to a record high above trend deviation of +2.0.... within a year.
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333408979094182++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.133322254723592+%29   

[DieJohnny]

Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.

You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?

TIA

Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference

Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands.

For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit):

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+)

Oh how I dreamed of today back then!

You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway

Something seems wrong with your chart here. According to the OP chart the third bump doesn't break the exponential trend line, but in this case it does. What am I missing?

[spiderbrain]

Any chance of an update? Love your work

[jl2012]

Date:    10-Aug-2017
BETI:   -0.295
VWAP:    3394.76
x:    2581
a:    0.00331
b:    -0.11038
Rsq:    0.81553
The day's expected price:    4561.38
Actual price / expected price:   74.42%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   491.09
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   29529.75
Predicted date for today's price:    12-May-2017
Days ahead:    -89.32
Daily price rank:    2
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00330715045894681++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.110375086243728+%29   

[jl2012]

[jl2012]

If you like this, please consider donating to 1GdBAuFihJVxypysnkF7jKwcKAoAn8dbvg

Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.

Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.

[600watt]

If you like this, please consider donating to 1GdBAuFihJVxypysnkF7jKwcKAoAn8dbvg

Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.

Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.

why is it that I start to salivate when I read your posts of this thread... 

will use BETI to find out when to sell @next peak.

please keep updating more regular....  this is great, thanks.  I will donate!

[xxnewbiecoinerxx]

If you like this, please consider donating to 1GdBAuFihJVxypysnkF7jKwcKAoAn8dbvg

Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.

Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.

why is it that I start to salivate when I read your posts of this thread... 

will use BETI to find out when to sell @next peak.

please keep updating more regular....  this is great, thanks.  I will donate!

+1

I was just in the progress of constructing my own charts for timing the top as well. It turns it is much more time consuming than I initially thought . Why the hell would I even need to do that if we have such quality thread. Jl2012 consider those mBTCs flying your way if we go above +1.5. It seems there is some resistance at -0.25 and 0.00. Afterwards this bull should be going with flying colors. Assuming it takes at least another two months min. tho reach the top it gives us another 20% on top of todays expected price. Hitting ATH would mean 33k USD, a little more conservative +1.5 would give us 25K USD.

[Biodom]

I also got about $25K for 1.5 by just eyballing/guesstimating, but not sure how to actually calculate it.
The formula in wolfram's does not contain a simple explanation how you can plug in the expected value (0, 1 or 1.5).
Maybe I am just looking at a wrong formula?

I guess, everyone want's to be there during the supra-exponential phase, but not stay too long during the inevitable deep correction (if you are into trading at all).
Intuitively, $20-25K (if during supra-exponential phase) is a good place to exit (for a while).

[xxnewbiecoinerxx]

most people do not have any idea about "fair value". I would bet on seeing tons of weak hands selling too early and (maybe even buying back afterwards) If Sir Isac Newton did during south sea bubble why would not average Joe? Usually people get too late to the party. I guess another way to confirm the current value of network would be see historical data of nr. of transactions vs btc price. To answer your question to calculate ATH would be e powered by 1.87 times X todays expected price

[Biodom]

most people do not have any idea about "fair value". I would bet on seeing tons of weak hands selling too early and (maybe even buying back afterwards) If Sir Isac Newton did during south sea bubble why would not average Joe? Usually people get too late to the party. I guess another way to confirm the current value of network would be see historical data of nr. of transactions vs btc price. To answer your question to calculate ATH would be e powered by 1.87 times X todays expected price

right, of course, since it is an exponential function and e^0=1 (for expected today).
Brain fart.

[jl2012]

Date:    11-Aug-2017
BETI:   -0.264
VWAP:    3511.92
x:    2582
a:    0.00331
b:    -0.11017
Rsq:    0.81568
The day's expected price:    4574.61
Actual price / expected price:   76.77%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   492.51
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   29615.43
Predicted date for today's price:    23-May-2017
Days ahead:    -79.94
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00330691215452517++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.110169635850561+%29   

[statdude]

this is interesting... so just using an exponential trend, basically?

[jl2012]

Date:    12-Aug-2017
BETI:   -0.191
VWAP:    3789.13
x:    2583
a:    0.00331
b:    -0.11002
Rsq:    0.81584
The day's expected price:    4588.41
Actual price / expected price:   82.58%
Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low   494.00
Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high   29704.71
Predicted date for today's price:    15-Jun-2017
Days ahead:    -57.88
Daily price rank:    1
   
   
(See OP for explanation)   
   
   
   
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00330673975452274++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.11002094625024+%29   

[jl2012]

this is interesting... so just using an exponential trend, basically?

yes, but the regression is done everyday only using the data available at that day

We had a big jump in BETI yesterday. It's now over -0.2. As of writing the price is $4080. I think it's very possible to see 0 BETI

BETI for some psychological resistance:

5000    0.085905352
7500    0.49137046
10000    0.779052532
15000     1.18451764
20000     1.472199713
25000     1.695343264