BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[wobbzz]

jl2012 could you do a quote like this for what 0.5 - 2.5 would be around August 9th 2018? I'm curious how it lines up if this fractal plays out from mid 2012 - 2014:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

not jl, but looking at the graphs it is clear that anything between 0 and 2 is a very short living spike as it is supra-exponential.
In all likelihood by the summer of 2018 the graph would be below zero (or fluctuating around it).

I see your point. However, the spring - winter 2013 double spike could potentially play out again. If we spike now, drop back down to 0, and back up again the timeframe would be pretty close.

[1713493541]

1713493541

[Biodom]

Yes. I am wondering if it can be really applied now given that the basis since when BETI was made, audience and infrastructure were different. The pool of buyers was so limited it is not even comparable
Ideally, you would want to consider the amount of users coming in
EDIT to make my point more clear: let's assume in 2013 Satoshi decided to pay for a Super Bowl ad and a football world cup ad. 40 Million people joined MtGox buying at least 400$ worth of bitcoins each, rising the value to 4000$ (just throwing numbers here, sorry). Wouldn't BETI still consider it a bubble although fundamentals are correct?

Also, I don't get why in August/September 2013 (according to charts in p. 32) we had 0 or less BETI when we were clearly ahead (BETI expected ~30$ vs an actual of ~100$)

Sorry, but "[different]audience and infrastructure" is something uncomputable in drawing charts.
This thread is about a chart based on price and possible predictions thereof.

"Ideally, you would want to consider the amount of users coming in"
Please do (in a separate thread).

[ragnar0k]

Yes. I am wondering if it can be really applied now given that the basis since when BETI was made, audience and infrastructure were different. The pool of buyers was so limited it is not even comparable
Ideally, you would want to consider the amount of users coming in
EDIT to make my point more clear: let's assume in 2013 Satoshi decided to pay for a Super Bowl ad and a football world cup ad. 40 Million people joined MtGox buying at least 400$ worth of bitcoins each, rising the value to 4000$ (just throwing numbers here, sorry). Wouldn't BETI still consider it a bubble although fundamentals are correct?

Also, I don't get why in August/September 2013 (according to charts in p. 32) we had 0 or less BETI when we were clearly ahead (BETI expected ~30$ vs an actual of ~100$)

Sorry, but "[different]audience and infrastructure" is something uncomputable in drawing charts.
This thread is about a chart based on price and possible predictions thereof.

"Ideally, you would want to consider the amount of users coming in"
Please do (in a separate thread).

Just wanted to know if my concerns were correct (so I can account for a chance of BETI failing). Seems like chances are there, though I guess this can somehow be considered part of the log growth

[jl2012]

Date:   10-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.734
VWAP:   14233.61

   
0.5   11263.50
1.0   18570.36
1.5   30617.35
2.0   50479.48
2.5   83226.60

jl2012 could you do a quote like this for what 0.5 - 2.5 would be around August 9th 2018? I'm curious how it lines up if this fractal plays out from mid 2012 - 2014:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

It is not possible because the regression parameters change as the price changes

[jl2012]

Date:   11-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.865
VWAP:   16293.32
x:   2,704
a:   0.003308
b:   -0.111626
Rsq:   0.835337
Expected price:   6863.07
Actual price / expected price:   237.41%
BETI ATL price:   738.89
BETI ATH price:   44430.57
Expected date:   29-Aug-2018
# of days ahead:   261.35
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   6885.81
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00330826042421309++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.111626313775941+)
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00330826042421309++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.111626313775941+)
   
   
   
0.5   11315.29
1.0   18655.75
1.5   30758.14
2.0   50711.60
2.5   83609.29

[jl2012]

Date:   12-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.894
VWAP:   16854.88
x:   2,705
a:   0.003309
b:   -0.112290
Rsq:   0.835519
Expected price:   6894.93
Actual price / expected price:   244.45%
BETI ATL price:   742.32
BETI ATH price:   44636.81
Expected date:   8-Sep-2018
# of days ahead:   270.13
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   6917.78
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00330899465601419++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.112289520882862+)
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00330899465601419++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.112289520882862+)
   
   
   
0.5   11367.81
1.0   18742.35
1.5   30900.91
2.0   50946.99
2.5   83997.39

[DieJohnny]

Date:   12-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.894
VWAP:   16854.88
x:   2,705
a:   0.003309
b:   -0.112290
Rsq:   0.835519
Expected price:   6894.93
Actual price / expected price:   244.45%
BETI ATL price:   742.32
BETI ATH price:   44636.81
Expected date:   8-Sep-2018
# of days ahead:   270.13
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   6917.78
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00330899465601419++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.112289520882862+)
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00330899465601419++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.112289520882862+)
   
   
   
0.5   11367.81
1.0   18742.35
1.5   30900.91
2.0   50946.99
2.5   83997.39

Probably hit 1.0 BETI today. Feels like 1.5 is baked in right now, not seeing any major panics, surge, pull back, surge.... repeat

anyone else thinking 2.5 BETI within two months?

[Wekkel]

anyone else thinking 2.5 BETI within two months?

Not 2 months but it sure could happen.

[btc4lifer]

anyone else thinking 2.5 BETI within two months?

Not 2 months but it sure could happen.

How about in a couple weeks?

[btcone111]

To those who thought btc regression curve had shifted lower throughout the years.... I have a feeling,.... we might hit 3.0 this time... which would bring the price regression back to the original curve. Thing with btc is... the reversion rate is very slow and maybe the first regression curve was good!  
Just a gut feeling.

[jl2012]

Date:   17-Dec-2017
BETI:   0.996
VWAP:   19110.24
x:   2,710
a:   0.003313
b:   -0.115689
Rsq:   0.836426
Expected price:   7057.70
Actual price / expected price:   270.77%
BETI ATL price:   759.85
BETI ATH price:   45690.60
Expected date:   13-Oct-2018
# of days ahead:   300.69
Daily VWAP rank:   1
Next expected price:   7081.12
   
   
   
   
Real-time expected (BETI 0) price   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.00331275421780906++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.115689279585926+)
Real-time BETI   https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ln(BTC%2FUSD)-(+0.00331275421780906++(+number+of+seconds+since+jul+17,+2010+12pm+UTC%2F86400%2Fseconds+)+-0.115689279585926+)
   
   
   
0.5   11636.18
1.0   19184.82
1.5   31630.42
2.0   52149.75
2.5   85980.40

[figmentofmyass]

Date:   17-Dec-2017

Expected price:   7057.70

Expected date:   13-Oct-2018

Next expected price:   7081.12

any historical insight re: how this expected price action might unfold? i'm especially curious given the current trend velocity. the "expected price" is continually ramping higher, but the "expected date" is 9 months out. is there an expectation that the downside target will be much higher than the $7000s?

there's some interesting horizontal support/resistance levels in the $7400-$8350 range (bitstamp). i'm just not sure how relevant they are given the timing of everything.

[dieselapa]

For the people thinking the BETI top will be higher this time, why do you think that, other than wishful thinking?

There are more inroads to buy, that's true. But there is also a lot more money that has to hit the market to move the price.

All exchanges that accept fiat deposits are already severely backlogged. Network fees, as measured both in BTC and USD will also increase with the increased usage a price spike causes, putting a natural dampener on the mania. That was not really the case in previous bubbles.

I think the tops of the 2013 bubbles are more reasonable, maybe somewhat lower.

[Wekkel]

There is less fear in the market and Bitcoin has survived another 4 years. A big difference with 2013.

[Denker]

For the people thinking the BETI top will be higher this time, why do you think that, other than wishful thinking?

There are more inroads to buy, that's true. But there is also a lot more money that has to hit the market to move the price.

All exchanges that accept fiat deposits are already severely backlogged. Network fees, as measured both in BTC and USD will also increase with the increased usage a price spike causes, putting a natural dampener on the mania. That was not really the case in previous bubbles.

I think the tops of the 2013 bubbles are more reasonable, maybe somewhat lower.

You know what's so beautiful about this backlog and mempool spam.
The people will mostly HODL!!
So it doesn't matter for instance what shitcoin gets neext pumped and endorsed by mainstream media for instance.
Or whatever FUD gets spread over social media.
Furthermore have you read what growth all the exchanges are seeing right now?!
Check bittrex, Coinbase, Bitstamp and Bitfinex for that. You will find plenty of tweets regarding that. Huge influx of people entering the space while in 2013 it was mostly innovators and "lunatics" passing the coins to each other by a doubled coin issuance per block around that time! So much has changed in those 4 years!
So check the fundamental data and do the math pal!

[dieselapa]

To both of you, I agree that we have come a long way in the last four years. I just don't see why the BETI top of this bubble should be higher than those of 2013. Neither of you addressed that.

[Syke]

To both of you, I agree that we have come a long way in the last four years. I just don't see why the BETI top of this bubble should be higher than those of 2013. Neither of you addressed that.

https://i.imgflip.com/21fd6l.jpg

[Wekkel]

Neither of you addressed that.

We did but you are free to interpret otherwise.

[exstasie]

There is less fear in the market and Bitcoin has survived another 4 years. A big difference with 2013.

There was no fear during the 2013 bull market. Same goes for the 2011 bull market. Fear doesn't arrive until the bear market is already in full swing. People like to point to Mt Gox as the reason for the 2014 bear market, but when Gox went down, we were already 2 months into the downtrend. It just accelerated the move. The truth is that the parabolic advance had already failed in early December and the sucker rally failed in early January.

If price breaks the log trend and prints a lower high like early 2014, that's when you'll begin to feel fear in the market. I don't think we'll ever see $1,000 bitcoins again, but I also think people aren't accounting for time. Bitcoin (like most markets) trends quickly, but ranges most of the time otherwise. These cycles are built on hype. After the hype comes a return to reality. I agree that demand will be higher than in past bear markets, which is why I'd aim for an 80% correction instead of 90-95%.

[JayJuanGee]

There is less fear in the market and Bitcoin has survived another 4 years. A big difference with 2013.

There was no fear during the 2013 bull market. Same goes for the 2011 bull market. Fear doesn't arrive until the bear market is already in full swing. People like to point to Mt Gox as the reason for the 2014 bear market, but when Gox went down, we were already 2 months into the downtrend. It just accelerated the move. The truth is that the parabolic advance had already failed in early December and the sucker rally failed in early January.

If price breaks the log trend and prints a lower high like early 2014, that's when you'll begin to feel fear in the market. I don't think we'll ever see $1,000 bitcoins again, but I also think people aren't accounting for time. Bitcoin (like most markets) trends quickly, but ranges most of the time otherwise. These cycles are built on hype. After the hype comes a return to reality. I agree that demand will be higher than in past bear markets, which is why I'd aim for an 80% correction instead of 90-95%.

You seem to be calling an imminent bear market?  And, really I doubt that any one can really call a bear market (in this bad boy) until several months after we have entered into it.  Sure, there could be the beginning of a bear market now or a transition, but we have been in a bull market for more than 2 years.. but we did not know that we had entered into such bull market until nearly 9 months after we did, which was about May 2016. 

So, my point is that a transition from our current bull market to bear market is not likely to be clear for several months, that is if it is occurring now, and we are likely to experience a whole hell-of-a-lot of continued battle before such transition were to occur, that is if it were to occur within about our current price range.

I personally am of the opinion that there is likely enough fuel in this particular battle to have at least another 25% up from our current ATH of $19667... and I am kind of inclined to conclude that the leg (or legs) up are going to be a bit more than that additional 25% before we possibly transition into a bear market.... in any event too early to call any particular leg and we have to see how the dynamics play out... anyone who actually proclaims to know the future with any kind of precision is merely going to be lucky in such a call rather than really having foresight.  Sure, I am bullish as fuck about bitcoin, and the whole potential of where we are at - and even believe that it is way more bullish than I had expected at these current prices, because we are approximately 3x to 5x in a higher place than I had expected on this particular timeline... anyhow buying support and fuel continues to seem pretty stong in spite of the seemingly steepness of our current upwards price slope.