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Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 110336 times)
Wilhelm
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November 30, 2018, 08:34:42 AM
 #821

Where is that in the realm of this?

https://imgur.com/ZArJRDS

Check the Y axis.

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Dogboy714
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November 30, 2018, 05:13:24 PM
 #822

I just meant that other charts have shown that we've been down to -2 in the past, where as this one only shows historical BETI's as low as -1.

Playing around with the function - setting the date to 2008 instead of 2010 just to see where BETI would be at 0 in two years, it looks like around $260,000. Yikes! I doubt we are ever crossing BETI 0 again - I like the -.5 call. Maybe I messed with the function wrong?

Here you can see the trending:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/BfCVXzZv-Patience-will-be-rewarded/

-.5 might even be a stretch unless we get a serious recovery short-term.
mmortal03
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December 01, 2018, 10:07:07 AM
Merited by Iris_Colt (1)
 #823


Excellent work! Finally something real-time with the dates labeled.
El duderino_
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December 01, 2018, 10:28:20 AM
 #824

Historically a good time to increase BTC exposure. Unless you have given up on the dream of course  Cool


XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!!  Thanks Bro
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December 01, 2018, 02:13:30 PM
 #825

Historically a good time to increase BTC exposure. Unless you have given up on the dream of course  Cool



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of00160
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December 05, 2018, 02:53:23 AM
 #826

It is hard to believe but we could be heading over 90% undervaluation soon.
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December 05, 2018, 08:45:36 AM
 #827

It is hard to believe but we could be heading over 90% undervaluation soon.

Only if you bought solely at the very top. You can always dollar cost average in.
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December 05, 2018, 11:24:42 AM
 #828

It is hard to believe but we could be heading over 90% undervaluation soon.

Only if you bought solely at the very top. You can always dollar cost average in.

Yep there will be a lot of those folks. Future bitcoin shillers.  I mean someone gotta buy the bags right. That’s what insures bitcoin survives. There’s always a greater fool.

BR

As in nature, all is ebb and tide, all is wave motion, so it seems that in all branches of industry, alternating currents - electric wave motion - will have the sway. ~Nikola Tesla~
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December 05, 2018, 01:20:30 PM
 #829

It is hard to believe but we could be heading over 90% undervaluation soon.

Only if you bought solely at the very top. You can always dollar cost average in.

Yep there will be a lot of those folks. Future bitcoin shillers.  I mean someone gotta buy the bags right. That’s what insures bitcoin survives. There’s always a greater fool.

BR

You guys were ahead of the game and had an idea of “overvaluation” and “undervalauation”.
The next dum money wont have any clue how to evaluate bitcoin.
Like some people still dont believe in the bitcoin logarithmic trend line, which going to get them rekt on the next
Bubble.
DieJohnny
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December 06, 2018, 04:59:42 PM
Merited by Majormax (1)
 #830

This last month drop seems to be unprecedented from a BETI chart perspective. Almost all drops of 50% have had a sharp rebound almost immediately afterwards.

I feel like the next few weeks will try men's souls. If you thought the Bitcoin death knell march was loud before... I get the feeling we are heading for a cacophony of haters coming in below $3k.

Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
Dogboy714
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December 07, 2018, 06:33:18 AM
 #831

We are on a SQRT curve - no worries - the BETI's are gonna fade but can still be an indicator for tops and bottoms...
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December 07, 2018, 11:18:56 PM
 #832

This last month drop seems to be unprecedented from a BETI chart perspective. Almost all drops of 50% have had a sharp rebound almost immediately afterwards.

I feel like the next few weeks will try men's souls. If you thought the Bitcoin death knell march was loud before... I get the feeling we are heading for a cacophony of haters coming in below $3k.

yeah I too am concernced for the new market conditions...

the whole market is different now. Previously it was the early players, the nerds, the tech heads, the believers, and there was buying all the way down. This drop is different... and equity markets may be about to go major bear.

looking for a bounce from here though, how high will be very telling.

shorts on bfx are totally euphoric right now, a strong indication of what the majority of the market thinks about bitcoin. In the same way they thought it would get them rich going up, they will blindly short all the way down, close eyes, and still profit :/
Syke
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December 08, 2018, 01:34:42 AM
 #833

Wow, below -1.5. It's been a long time since we've been that low.

Buy & Hold
Dogboy714
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December 08, 2018, 05:31:20 AM
 #834

The range is moving down via a SQRT curve of sorts - we aren't ever breaking zero again and if we touch -.5, sell everything! I like this indicator, but it should somehow evolve away from log and towards a more gradual curve. I patiently waited for another 1.5 on the last run up without realizing this.
Majormax
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December 09, 2018, 04:57:55 PM
 #835

This last month drop seems to be unprecedented from a BETI chart perspective. Almost all drops of 50% have had a sharp rebound almost immediately afterwards.

I feel like the next few weeks will try men's souls. If you thought the Bitcoin death knell march was loud before... I get the feeling we are heading for a cacophony of haters coming in below $3k.

Now I look at it carefully, yes, that is true. A bit worrying, although maybe it can mark a local low on the chart.

A rebound to 5k now would be comforting, but even then, this bear market has a lot longer to run, as it hasn't completed it's work.
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December 09, 2018, 05:02:20 PM
 #836

Looking back  (for many years) on all the speculation and price-following threads there is one trend that seems to be consistent.

Price forecasts (even correct ones) are always on a time scale which turns out to be too short.  In other words ppl always expect the price action (target) to come a lot sooner than it actually does.


Conclusion : Be a lot more patient, and look at a longer time horizon !
mmortal03
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December 09, 2018, 06:53:01 PM
 #837

Conclusion : Be a lot more patient, and look at a longer time horizon !

And always buy the dip! Tongue
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December 09, 2018, 11:43:50 PM
Merited by Majormax (1)
 #838

It seems more likely that bitcoin is on a logarithmic regression curve, like so:

Dogboy714
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December 10, 2018, 04:51:27 AM
 #839

Mapping that graph into some colors to represent the halving might be kinda fun...

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1068473233056382981
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December 11, 2018, 03:58:43 AM
Merited by infofront (1)
 #840

It seems more likely that bitcoin is on a logarithmic regression curve, like so:

https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/chart.png

The chart has been updated recently by Marc De Mesel
Below is the link to his YT video.
I refer to this chart and believe would could see more than 75% undervaluation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9JsmelO12s
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