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Author Topic: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis  (Read 106151 times)
Syke
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December 08, 2018, 01:34:42 AM
 #841

Wow, below -1.5. It's been a long time since we've been that low.

Buy & Hold
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Dogboy714
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December 08, 2018, 05:31:20 AM
 #842

The range is moving down via a SQRT curve of sorts - we aren't ever breaking zero again and if we touch -.5, sell everything! I like this indicator, but it should somehow evolve away from log and towards a more gradual curve. I patiently waited for another 1.5 on the last run up without realizing this.
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December 09, 2018, 04:57:55 PM
 #843

This last month drop seems to be unprecedented from a BETI chart perspective. Almost all drops of 50% have had a sharp rebound almost immediately afterwards.

I feel like the next few weeks will try men's souls. If you thought the Bitcoin death knell march was loud before... I get the feeling we are heading for a cacophony of haters coming in below $3k.

Now I look at it carefully, yes, that is true. A bit worrying, although maybe it can mark a local low on the chart.

A rebound to 5k now would be comforting, but even then, this bear market has a lot longer to run, as it hasn't completed it's work.
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December 09, 2018, 05:02:20 PM
 #844

Looking back  (for many years) on all the speculation and price-following threads there is one trend that seems to be consistent.

Price forecasts (even correct ones) are always on a time scale which turns out to be too short.  In other words ppl always expect the price action (target) to come a lot sooner than it actually does.


Conclusion : Be a lot more patient, and look at a longer time horizon !
mmortal03
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December 09, 2018, 06:53:01 PM
 #845

Conclusion : Be a lot more patient, and look at a longer time horizon !

And always buy the dip! Tongue
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December 09, 2018, 11:43:50 PM
Merited by Majormax (1)
 #846

It seems more likely that bitcoin is on a logarithmic regression curve, like so:

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December 10, 2018, 04:51:27 AM
 #847

Mapping that graph into some colors to represent the halving might be kinda fun...

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1068473233056382981
of00160
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December 11, 2018, 03:58:43 AM
Merited by infofront (1)
 #848

It seems more likely that bitcoin is on a logarithmic regression curve, like so:

https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/chart.png

The chart has been updated recently by Marc De Mesel
Below is the link to his YT video.
I refer to this chart and believe would could see more than 75% undervaluation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9JsmelO12s
Bitcoinaire
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December 11, 2018, 04:16:34 AM
 #849

It seems more likely that bitcoin is on a logarithmic regression curve, like so:



The chart has been updated recently by Marc De Mesel
Below is the link to his YT video.
I refer to this chart and believe would could see more than 75% undervaluation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9JsmelO12s

He's counting 2015 as the beginning of the bull market, but it was range bound ($200-$300) the first 10/11 months.
birr
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December 28, 2018, 03:38:58 AM
Last edit: December 28, 2018, 04:20:30 AM by birr
Merited by josegines (1)
 #850

The range is moving down via a SQRT curve of sorts - we aren't ever breaking zero again and if we touch -.5, sell everything! I like this indicator, but it should somehow evolve away from log and towards a more gradual curve. I patiently waited for another 1.5 on the last run up without realizing this.
No need to abandon the log scale.  Only needs judicious choice of curve.  SQRT it is.
I ran some numbers on the price history and fitted a square root baseline.  Vertical axis, log of dollars.



This chart shows the relation between the price and the baseline over time.


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January 22, 2019, 09:47:44 PM
 #851

Just a quick update...

Date   11/28/18
VWAP   $4,098.94
x   3056
y   8.318484
a (slope) historical   +0.0032121222
b (intercept) historical   -0.0144982009
Rsq historical   0.869245
BETI historical   -1.483263
Expected price historical   $18,065.28
Actual price / expected price historical   22.68% (kek!)
 
-2.00   $2,444.87
-1.50   $4,030.91
-1.00   $6,645.84
-0.50  $10,957.15
-0.25  $14,069.25
+0.00  $18,065.28
+0.25  $23,196.27
+0.50  $29,784.61
+1.00  $49,106.52

The BIT historical is BElow -2 as of 1/22/19. The market is seriously undervalued.
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February 08, 2019, 08:18:57 AM
 #852

-2.15 at the moment.

"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
Bitcoinaire
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February 09, 2019, 04:46:54 PM
 #853

It looks like we have to break -1.75 to be sure we've left the bear market and are in a new bull market.
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February 09, 2019, 05:13:47 PM
 #854

It looks like we have to break -1.75 to be sure we've left the bear market and are in a new bull market.

That could like breaking above 6k.
The trololo line on Tradingview is at fair value.
Btc have be trading on avg above that line the last 7years.
The trololo line is at ~3500
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February 13, 2019, 05:12:30 AM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #855

I am getting BETI at -2.083 currently using the formula described here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26854986#msg26854986

Since -2.25 is an all time low (in 2011) with second low in 2015 at -2.2, next point in progression might indeed be -2.15.
Perhaps, -2.15 would be IT for this cycle.

Next ATH might not even get to BETI=1.0 (achieved in 2017) and stop somewhere lower if peaks are actually on a declining trend (too small number of points so far).
Last peak was somewhat disappointing in that regard as I expected at least a match to 2013.

Dogboy714
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February 13, 2019, 06:44:05 AM
 #856

I am getting BETI at -2.083 currently using the formula described here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26854986#msg26854986

Since -2.25 is an all time low (in 2011) with second low in 2015 at -2.2, next point in progression might indeed be -2.15.
Perhaps, -2.15 would be IT for this cycle.

Next ATH might not even get to BETI=1.0 (achieved in 2017) and stop somewhere lower if peaks are actually on a declining trend (too small number of points so far).
Last peak was somewhat disappointing in that regard as I expected at least a match to 2013.



We will never break 0 again, not to mention 1.0.
exstasie
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February 13, 2019, 07:56:12 AM
 #857

We will never break 0 again, not to mention 1.0.

Don't get too comfortable with the current regression model, based on such limited data. We cant assume based on extrapolation that Bitcoin will never rise above the upper bounds of the historical trend. That would eliminate the possibility of an S-curve model for adoption, which I believe is still possible.

Dogboy714
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February 17, 2019, 07:02:56 AM
 #858

We will never break 0 again, not to mention 1.0.

Don't get too comfortable with the current regression model, based on such limited data. We cant assume based on extrapolation that Bitcoin will never rise above the upper bounds of the historical trend. That would eliminate the possibility of an S-curve model for adoption, which I believe is still possible.

Mmmm...hopium! Not going to happen, though. Dollar cost average in now and HODL til $80k - then sell everything and retire! Don't forget the last part about selling everything - the hype will be stronger than you could possibly imagine but you've gotta go contrarian and sell. Rinse and repeat for more bitcoin if you like, but get out!
josegines
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February 17, 2019, 08:01:26 AM
 #859

and HODL til $80k -

why $80k?

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Biodom
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February 17, 2019, 11:28:55 PM
 #860


right now BETI is about -2.09.
About 29K at BETI=0
80K at BETI=1.0 (as the last peak).

However, this is just for today.
80K number might have no meaning (not close to any round number) in a year or two.
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