BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis

[Cassius]

@Cassius
parabola has an apex, so there's a time zero on this graph, before which price is undefined.
My latest equation has time zero as Sept 22, 2010.  That is the day that realistic price discovery began, according to this mathematical scheme.
The equation for baseline (in red on the image) is
=0.0926237*(D^0.5)-1.57846
where D is days since Sept 22, 2010

If you want to extract a square root line from historical price data, the way to do it is swap axes.  Make time a function of price, and do a quadratic regression on the data (dead easy).  Then solve the quadratic.

Thanks! The equation I dug out and tweaked was 0.014*2^(0.32*sqrt(t)), starting from July 2010. It's not bad but not perfect. https://imgur.com/a/9YB1q4f
Your equation is quite a lot simpler by the look of it but I'm assuming more accurate.
I don't (currently) have the maths to fine tune this except by trial and error, so I appreciate the help. Please let me known any Twitter handle etc and I'll happily credit you on the site when we've got this up and running.

[1713555626]

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[1713555626]

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[Cassius]

Relationship between chart and baseline is also very useful, so thanks again. It looks like +0.5-0.6 would be into bubble territory next time around.

[Biodom]

Trying to revive this long-abandoned thread.

According to -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26854986#msg26854986

Current BETI score is -1.605 (quite low with lowest score of about 2.3).

Expected price (BETI=0) is at $40284

A critical level is about BETI=-1.
Every time it got to -1 (right now, about $14.8 K in my estimate), market accelerated further or much further within a few months.

[DieJohnny]

Trying to revive this long-abandoned thread.

According to -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26854986#msg26854986

Current BETI score is -1.605 (quite low with lowest score of about 2.3).

Expected price (BETI=0) is at $40284

A critical level is about BETI=-1.
Every time it got to -1 (right now, about $14.8 K in my estimate), market accelerated further or much further within a few months.

McAfee would have to win his public wager for BETI to be revived as a viable indicator at this point. It is holding on by a thread staying above lowest score of 2.3. I think there are better fit models than BETI at this point. Still holding out hope though.

[jubalix]

Some time ago ... I think I suggested in this tread normalising the curve for by the increase of market that the Alts represent.

Eg say the whole market cap at (t) it on the beti curve, then the bt % or that must be the actual beti value.

This may also have some sort of volume weighting as a second cut.

That is beti from day one can not really be applied to now as BTC was the whole market cap.

clearly now it is not.

[Biodom]

My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.

[Iris_Colt]

Sometimes we are looking for a trend without any evidence for a trend other than our attempts to draw a straight line. Life ain't that simple. 

[windjc]

My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.

Based on past history and the smoothing of the exponential curve, I think BETI might likely top out at 0 next bull cycle. By that time, it'll be well above 44k?

When will BETI 0 = $80k, I'm curious?

[Biodom]

My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.

Based on past history and the smoothing of the exponential curve, I think BETI might likely top out at 0 next bull cycle. By that time, it'll be well above 44k?

When will BETI 0 = $80k, I'm curious?

I am not sure if I am calculating it correctly, but I am getting Dec 18, 2019 (for 80K at BETI=0).
Maybe +/- a day or two.
That's the power of the exponential growth.

[windjc]

My rough calculations show BETI at -1 when btc would be around $16522.
If we get there, prior graphs show that we accelerate toward BETI=0, which would be at $44K (current number).
Possible? Maybe.

Based on past history and the smoothing of the exponential curve, I think BETI might likely top out at 0 next bull cycle. By that time, it'll be well above 44k?

When will BETI 0 = $80k, I'm curious?

I am not sure if I am calculating it correctly, but I am getting Dec 18, 2019 (for 80K at BETI=0).
Maybe +/- a day or two.
That's the power of the exponential growth.

Interesting. What do you get for Nov. 2020? Serious question.

(maybe we never see BETI at 0 again) Maybe -.5 instead.

I am wondering if BETI -.5 falls in the 80k-100k range somewhere between Oct. 2020 and Nov. 2021.

[bitserve]

So it looks like we are at BETI -2.35 with an expected BETI 0 price of $76K

IIRC -2.3 was the previous lowest BETI score.

Probably not very useful anymore as it doesn't look like realtime price will ever cross with BETI 0 ever again but... just saying.

[tmfp]

Probably not very useful anymore as it doesn't look like realtime price will ever cross with BETI 0 ever again but... just saying.

Never say never....

[josegines]

Probably, over the years, parameters a and b should be changed, so that the price curve adapts better.

For example, this is what you get with:

a = 0.00285
b = -0.12

[exstasie]

So it looks like we are at BETI -2.35 with an expected BETI 0 price of $76K

IIRC -2.3 was the previous lowest BETI score.

Probably not very useful anymore as it doesn't look like realtime price will ever cross with BETI 0 ever again but... just saying.

Losing hope, are we?

Where will BETI 0 be in Q4 2021? If there is some sort of "4-year cycle" at play, isn't that a reasonable time period to look at? I know most people around here have trouble fathoming > $100K, but from a regression analysis point of view, we should be aiming higher anyway.

[Dogboy714]

So it looks like we are at BETI -2.35 with an expected BETI 0 price of $76K

IIRC -2.3 was the previous lowest BETI score.

Probably not very useful anymore as it doesn't look like realtime price will ever cross with BETI 0 ever again but... just saying.

Losing hope, are we?

Where will BETI 0 be in Q4 2021? If there is some sort of "4-year cycle" at play, isn't that a reasonable time period to look at? I know most people around here have trouble fathoming > $100K, but from a regression analysis point of view, we should be aiming higher anyway.

BETI is a dead indicator that never should have been born. Sorry...

[windjc]

So it looks like we are at BETI -2.35 with an expected BETI 0 price of $76K

IIRC -2.3 was the previous lowest BETI score.

Probably not very useful anymore as it doesn't look like realtime price will ever cross with BETI 0 ever again but... just saying.

Losing hope, are we?

Where will BETI 0 be in Q4 2021? If there is some sort of "4-year cycle" at play, isn't that a reasonable time period to look at? I know most people around here have trouble fathoming > $100K, but from a regression analysis point of view, we should be aiming higher anyway.

BETI is a dead indicator that never should have been born. Sorry...

^^^Hey look! A Jr. Member come to educate us! How exciting.

[d57heinz]

So it looks like we are at BETI -2.35 with an expected BETI 0 price of $76K

IIRC -2.3 was the previous lowest BETI score.

Probably not very useful anymore as it doesn't look like realtime price will ever cross with BETI 0 ever again but... just saying.

Losing hope, are we?

Where will BETI 0 be in Q4 2021? If there is some sort of "4-year cycle" at play, isn't that a reasonable time period to look at? I know most people around here have trouble fathoming > $100K, but from a regression analysis point of view, we should be aiming higher anyway.

BETI is a dead indicator that never should have been born. Sorry...

^^^Hey look! A Jr. Member come to educate us! How exciting.

What indicator would you need to have that indicates someone is educated to a degree worthy of you?  If bill gates signed up tomorrow would he not start out the same.  Just saying that is no indicator of knowledge.  Hell we watched as users game the system with bs content just to get above that.  It’s sad this day and age and knowledge that we continue to judge books by their cover.

BR
Doug

[criptix]

So it looks like we are at BETI -2.35 with an expected BETI 0 price of $76K

IIRC -2.3 was the previous lowest BETI score.

Probably not very useful anymore as it doesn't look like realtime price will ever cross with BETI 0 ever again but... just saying.

Losing hope, are we?

Where will BETI 0 be in Q4 2021? If there is some sort of "4-year cycle" at play, isn't that a reasonable time period to look at? I know most people around here have trouble fathoming > $100K, but from a regression analysis point of view, we should be aiming higher anyway.

BETI is a dead indicator that never should have been born. Sorry...

^^^Hey look! A Jr. Member come to educate us! How exciting.

What indicator would you need to have that indicates someone is educated to a degree worthy of you?  If bill gates signed up tomorrow would he not start out the same.  Just saying that is no indicator of knowledge.  Hell we watched as users game the system with bs content just to get above that.  It’s sad this day and age and knowledge that we continue to judge books by their cover.

BR
Doug

He just came here to say its bs without a single argument.

Reply seems fine to me lol

[DieJohnny]

chart update, if anyone is interested...

can someone provide an updated chart?

[Biodom]

Reviving this "dead'' thread again...

BETI is at a very low nuber of -2.885 (and people think that we are not still in the bear market, lol).
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg26854986#msg26854986

At BETI=0, which is the fair value, we should be at $163304, which, incidentally, is the vicinity of S2F and S2FX

At which point should we declare that BETI is completely dead and buried?
Posting this just for kicks as I am bored senseless by the recent price action or a luck of such.