# Data Driven Decision Making Questions

Please solve the hypothesis testing problems (#1, and 2) using Minitab as the tool. For each problem, (1) specify the business and statistical hypotheses, (2) specify what the Type I and Type II errors are in this business context, and, the implications of making those errors, (3) include the results from Minitab, (4) draw appropriate conclusions to your statistical hypotheses based on the results, and, finally, (5) present the business conclusions in a short non-statistical summary. For problem 3, use Minitab and follow instructions given with the problem. For problem 4, several analyses will be necessary. Present each analysis with business/statistical hypotheses, Minitab results, and business conclusions. Incorporate those analyses into a short report.

- Suppose Smith and Wilson is a relatively small West Coast advertising agency. Assume that they have hired you to help in their newly established advertising research department. Your first task is to evaluate the results of a copy test for a new consumer product. Three different versions of the advertisement were prepared. A random sample of 10 viewers watched the three versions. After each commercial was shown, each consumer’s attitude toward the product was measured on a scale of 1 to 100 (the higher the score, the more favorable the attitude). The scores of the 10 viewers are below:

A

B

C

1

66

61

85

2

79

51

90

3

58

44

79

4

77

50

88

5

65

35

78

6

59

28

69

7

71

41

89

8

80

38

95

9

77

45

85

10

68

50

80

- After receiving your bachelor’s degree in personnel management, you were hired by a small but expanding life insurance company. Your first assignment is to develop a more efficient technique for the preliminary screening of applicants for sales positions. Since the firm employs only college graduates, you decide to work with information focusing on their performance during college.

A random sample of 25 from the firm’s current sales force is selected and the following information is obtained:

*Last year’s performance evaluation score*

*College grade point average (GPA)*

*Percent of total college expenses earned by the individual*

*Number of social organizations the individual belonged to*

** Percent of Number of**

**Performance Expenses Social**

**Score GPA Earned Organizations**

43 2.1 50 2

47 2.8 20 5

53 2.6 10 3

56 2.7 60 1

57 3.8 0 0

64 2.6 30 2

68 3.2 10 1

68 2.8 30 2

74 2.6 10 2

75 2.9 40 1

77 3.0 30 0

78 3.2 15 1

81 3.4 20 2

83 2.8 40 3

87 2.6 60 5

88 3.1 50 0

89 2.4 80 4

90 3.3 10 2

91 2.9 50 6

92 3.5 40 1

93 3.7 30 2

94 3.1 20 5

95 3.6 70 1

96 3.2 10 4

97 3.4 40 0

————————————————————————-

(Source: Unknown – 270RL?)

On the basis of the data obtained, what recommendations can you make regarding the preliminary screening of applicants for sales positions?

3. A contractor has recorded the number of jobs performed in the last seven months.

a.Draw a graph of the number of jobs (as y) and time (as x). Be sure to label the axes.

For each of the following methods, develop a forecast for the number of jobs for the 8th month.

b.A three-period moving average

c.Exponential smoothing (use Minitab default smoothing parameters)

d.A linear trend equation

Using the mean squared difference (MSD), explain which of the methods you believe results in the best forecast and make your recommendation to the contractor about what he should expect for the eighth month.

Month

Jobs

Feb

19

Mar

18

Apr

15

May

20

Jun

18

Jul

22

Aug

20

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