Mike Novograts to CNBC: ‘I Think Bitcoin’s Price has Bottomed’

[bbc.reporter]

@kryptqnick. Here is a direct question for you that others might have started to avoid answering because they have gotten it wrong a few times and might have given up hehehe.

Will we find a lower bottom for 2018 and 2019?

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[hatshepsut93]

Two weeks is too short of a time to tell for sure whether it was bottom or not. We already had two recoveries that have failed and resulted in a drop to $6k. To me all these statements from rich guys sound a bit like manipulation, they know that the public is hyped for ETF and they are playing along by making moon predictions for the end of this year and saying that the bear market is over. To me reaching bottom only half a year after the ATH and crash sounds suspicious. Buying a few weeks ago during sub 6k dip was smart, buying now is FOMO.

[pooya87]

And he still thinks we need a year for full recovery.

and i have never seen any explanation about "WHY" they think this. i have heard many users around here say the same too but i never get the reason. we never had such long "recovery" phases in the past except that one time after 2013 Mt Gox disaster and we have had bigger bubbles than $20k in the history which should have led to longer "recovery" phases according to this logic but they never lasted more than a couple of months like 6 for instance.

[jjacob]

We can't be sure that bitcoin has bottomed already, because what is against new cycles of drops and ups with a light upward tendency? Even Novogratz said in the interview that he is not sure about it. And he still thinks we need a year for full recovery.

It may or may not have bottomed. It doesn't matter if you don't sell - you are only sitting on paper losses.
It might take a year for full recovery. It might take two. But as long as you have the confidence and sit tight, you should make lots of money.

[BitHodler]

It might take a year for full recovery. It might take two. But as long as you have the confidence and sit tight, you should make lots of money.

People don't have the patience for that. It's like an eternity for people to wait 1 or 2 years in crypto. They rather stick their money in shitty coins they hope to do a quick 2x in order for them to recover their losses.

It's like gambling to a certain degree. What do gamblers when they lost x amount? They try to win it back, and that's where they go worng. People here are not much different. No patience. No skills. No tech understanding.

If you look at last year's peak ($19,500), then at the lowest price last year ($780), you can only conclude that current $8000 mark is a fantastic price. It's not low at all. It's somewhat of an average.

[slaman29]

Remember ladies and gentlemen, these types of stories only come out AFTER the big boys have invested.

I suspect Mike Novogratz is talking his book. He said in December that he wasn't interested in bitcoin - that was a sign he was shorting. Now he's announced that it's bottomed out - that's a sign he bought in around $6300.

Ditto stuff coming out from the likes of Soros. When they're slamming it, it means they're short. When they suddenly turn around and praise bitcoin, that means they've gone long and are trying to encourage the general public to get in, to force the price up.

Would that imply that he was only announcing his analysis that bitcoin has indeed bottomed out or his announcement was nothing but a trick to have everyone follow him, causing bitcoin to indeed bottom out?

It might have already worked hehehe!

I know haha, every time I see an announcement like this coming out from Mr Wall Street or Mr CEO, I only think 1 thing: they already entered the market and want to offload (so they go super bullish), OR they want the market to reach their entry point so they can buy (so they go super bearish).

This was what Jamie Dimon did and now the formula is being picked up by all the big players.

We're so smart, aren't we?

[1Referee]

and i have never seen any explanation about "WHY" they think this. i have heard many users around here say the same too but i never get the reason.

They simply don't know.

Mike Novogratz isn't smarter than you are when it comes to the market. What you know he knows and vice versa. In other words, if we all together dig into everything that has any sort of meaning in this industry, we are all on the same level in terms of knowledge. These experts are nothing more than green dildo riders. They are here because it's exciting, unlike the boring stock markets and Gold that doesn't seem to do anything.

All current "experts" were the haters of the past.

[bbc.reporter]

We can't be sure that bitcoin has bottomed already, because what is against new cycles of drops and ups with a light upward tendency? Even Novogratz said in the interview that he is not sure about it. And he still thinks we need a year for full recovery.

It may or may not have bottomed. It doesn't matter if you don't sell - you are only sitting on paper losses.
It might take a year for full recovery. It might take two. But as long as you have the confidence and sit tight, you should make lots of money.

Also, bitcoin has a very good future ahead of it. Better than all the other cryptocoins. The people who say that it is old or dying are those who are either new in the cryptospace or altcoin bagholders hehehe.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

The absence of comments and advice might be showing that we are in a stage of confusion.

Yeah well, a market like this is sure to confuse anyone, and no one can say for sure if this little run we're experiencing is the start of something or whether it's just a dead cat bounce. 

It's also not a shocker he called the bottom.  Looking at where bitcoin has been, that's not exactly a genius call right there.

[wuvdoll]

We can't trust the economicts in this market, they have too much to lose if bitcoin is going up and becoming more stable and adapts to regular life of everyone. Unlike most other markets, bitcoin market is still undergoing havy manipulations by institutions and whales hence these economists and their predictions.

Economics try to make money of stocks and forex and derivatives and if people make their own money than we may not need wall street ever again, bitcoin is here so that more people can have a share of the pie in the market. It is not like dollar where even couple bucks can change the life of some african family yet some companies spend thousands of dollars on paper costs.

[magneto]

I'd say that bitcoin's $6k price level was definitely close to the bottom, if not the definitive bottom.

I'm just uncertain as to whether the bearish sentiment in the market would continue longer before the bull market actually comes. Right now, even though we've seen some small bull runs, I think that it's safe to say that we're nowhere close to a bull market yet.

The lowest BTC can go is probably $4-5k within this bear market, in my opinion, under which there will just be too much demand for prices to keep falling. But whether this rally is going to be the start of a recovery or just temporary and will correct is unknown at this stage.

[Bardman]

I'd say that bitcoin's $6k price level was definitely close to the bottom, if not the definitive bottom.

I'm just uncertain as to whether the bearish sentiment in the market would continue longer before the bull market actually comes. Right now, even though we've seen some small bull runs, I think that it's safe to say that we're nowhere close to a bull market yet.

The lowest BTC can go is probably $4-5k within this bear market, in my opinion, under which there will just be too much demand for prices to keep falling. But whether this rally is going to be the start of a recovery or just temporary and will correct is unknown at this stage.

''too much demand for prices to keep falling'' I don't see how that works. Why would demand increase? We already saw what happened when bitcoin crashed from 20k. There was no demand capable of stopping the crash. There is no reason to think there is going to be more demand when we hit 4k. In any case you could argue that demand will go down as people will lose even more interest in bitcoin.

[TravelMug]

I'd say that bitcoin's $6k price level was definitely close to the bottom, if not the definitive bottom.

I'm just uncertain as to whether the bearish sentiment in the market would continue longer before the bull market actually comes. Right now, even though we've seen some small bull runs, I think that it's safe to say that we're nowhere close to a bull market yet.

The lowest BTC can go is probably $4-5k within this bear market, in my opinion, under which there will just be too much demand for prices to keep falling. But whether this rally is going to be the start of a recovery or just temporary and will correct is unknown at this stage.

''too much demand for prices to keep falling'' I don't see how that works. Why would demand increase? We already saw what happened when bitcoin crashed from 20k. There was no demand capable of stopping the crash. There is no reason to think there is going to be more demand when we hit 4k. In any case you could argue that demand will go down as people will lose even more interest in bitcoin.

Maybe what he meant that when we reach the stage were the price is around $4K-$5K, people will be tempted to buy because the price is really cheap and at a discount. So the demand will still be there and keep the price to above that bottom. I will admit that I never thought that bitcoin can go below $10K this year, but I learn to accept it and made me think that no one can really say where the price is going to be in the future.

[Bardman]

I'd say that bitcoin's $6k price level was definitely close to the bottom, if not the definitive bottom.

I'm just uncertain as to whether the bearish sentiment in the market would continue longer before the bull market actually comes. Right now, even though we've seen some small bull runs, I think that it's safe to say that we're nowhere close to a bull market yet.

The lowest BTC can go is probably $4-5k within this bear market, in my opinion, under which there will just be too much demand for prices to keep falling. But whether this rally is going to be the start of a recovery or just temporary and will correct is unknown at this stage.

''too much demand for prices to keep falling'' I don't see how that works. Why would demand increase? We already saw what happened when bitcoin crashed from 20k. There was no demand capable of stopping the crash. There is no reason to think there is going to be more demand when we hit 4k. In any case you could argue that demand will go down as people will lose even more interest in bitcoin.

Maybe what he meant that when we reach the stage were the price is around $4K-$5K, people will be tempted to buy because the price is really cheap and at a discount. So the demand will still be there and keep the price to above that bottom. I will admit that I never thought that bitcoin can go below $10K this year, but I learn to accept it and made me think that no one can really say where the price is going to be in the future.

''because the price is really cheap'' Is really cheap compared to what? Wasn't 15k ''cheap'' compared to 20k? What about 10k or 8, etc etc. No such thing as really cheap. As I said people look at this the wrong way, when something falls so drastically, people don't think it's cheap anymore, people think it's trash.

[bbc.reporter]

I'd say that bitcoin's $6k price level was definitely close to the bottom, if not the definitive bottom.

I'm just uncertain as to whether the bearish sentiment in the market would continue longer before the bull market actually comes. Right now, even though we've seen some small bull runs, I think that it's safe to say that we're nowhere close to a bull market yet.

The lowest BTC can go is probably $4-5k within this bear market, in my opinion, under which there will just be too much demand for prices to keep falling. But whether this rally is going to be the start of a recovery or just temporary and will correct is unknown at this stage.

I reckon one of the good ways to find if there is demand for prices to keep falling is to look at the data on short selling and long buying in different exchanges. I reckon some exchanges let users peer though this data by using their API or directly from their sites.

https://datamish.com

There are more longs than shorts at this moment.

[arthotdog]

Well how many "experts"like this one says anything just to bring bitcoin down?

Its an obvious idea that they are just a paid advertiser to make issues and create panic so the bosses plans will take place,and that is to buy bitcoin at low price

You know what mate?why not stop posting things like this because its not helping the community instead this bringing bad impressions