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Author Topic: How long will this bull run be?  (Read 354 times)
thecodebear
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July 24, 2018, 06:06:25 AM
 #1

It seems likely that this recent third bottom of 2018 was the final bottoming out. Don't think price is gonna start going crazy or anything now, though it might go crazy until the ETF verdict, but generally I think we're right at the start of a new bull market.

The last bull market lasted about 2.5 years from mid-2015 to end of 2017. How long do you think this one will be?

I could see it lasting until late 2019 or maybe even late 2020 past the next halving. I think we'll see or get close to $100k on the peak of the next bull run in less than 30 months. I think institutional investors and traditional retail investors (like through ETFs) will drive this bull run, with of course another round of serious FOMO from the public eventually just like late last year.

Now is the time to get in if you're smart money, whether hodling or trading.
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July 24, 2018, 06:19:50 AM
 #2

This is not just a normal spike, all of the indicators are positive including Divergence, MACD over EXP, CCI etc. The volume is just normal though. The indicators alone may drive the spike a bit more but I don't think it will last and it will stay below 10k. There have been quite a bit of positve news and Bitcoin has captured quite a bit of market cap recently to stand over 46% right now.

If this trend holds, we may see a nice spike towards the end of this year.
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July 24, 2018, 06:23:35 AM
 #3

Absolutely but we have no idea how long it will last. Because it's very unpredictable due to the volatility,  but it doesn't matter in my opinion because it's up to us as well how to handle it to avoid losses. Wherein for me doing hard technical analysis is the most important now.  
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July 24, 2018, 01:57:45 PM
 #4

A modest rise Grin Tongue of $ 1,000 or 2,000 means that we will continue to rise forever, according to your words, ETF is a point that may lead the price to a mad high or vice versa.
So if you are smart, the best point to buy and reduce risk is after ETF's decision, either by buying or selling because then a real change will happen.
Although the recent rally is frantic, I do not expect it to last long, "we have exceeded $ 7,000 quickly."





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July 24, 2018, 02:00:23 PM
 #5

This is not just a normal spike, all of the indicators are positive including Divergence, MACD over EXP, CCI etc. The volume is just normal though. The indicators alone may drive the spike a bit more but I don't think it will last and it will stay below 10k. There have been quite a bit of positve news and Bitcoin has captured quite a bit of market cap recently to stand over 46% right now.

If this trend holds, we may see a nice spike towards the end of this year.

Maybe just don't look deeper into indicators right now. Wait few days or week to have a data including the recent price action due to huge spikes Cheesy
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July 24, 2018, 02:12:41 PM
 #6

It seems likely that this recent third bottom of 2018 was the final bottoming out.
I would not be so sure about that looking at how the market has behaved in the past days or months. Sure, we may have a good outlook on the charts so far, but this does not mean we are totally out of the bear trend yet. It is obvious we can still end up having some pretty pull back from resistance and could result to us going back lower. Like someone also said, this move looks exactly like the one we had in the last bounce upward. Final bottoming will be sure when we are pushing past the resistances above us like piece of cake which from where I stand is unlikely.
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July 24, 2018, 02:14:47 PM
 #7

It seems likely that this recent third bottom of 2018 was the final bottoming out. Don't think price is gonna start going crazy or anything now, though it might go crazy until the ETF verdict, but generally I think we're right at the start of a new bull market.

The last bull market lasted about 2.5 years from mid-2015 to end of 2017. How long do you think this one will be?

I could see it lasting until late 2019 or maybe even late 2020 past the next halving. I think we'll see or get close to $100k on the peak of the next bull run in less than 30 months. I think institutional investors and traditional retail investors (like through ETFs) will drive this bull run, with of course another round of serious FOMO from the public eventually just like late last year.

Now is the time to get in if you're smart money, whether hodling or trading.

This bull run will only last up to the verdict by the SEC - approval or denial. So if the SEC approves it then we might see the bull run sustain it runs. FOMO will pump fresh money again but its really hard to say what will be the price or how long this bull run (if ever) will go. However, a reversal might be in the horizon when a denial is issued again by SEC.

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July 24, 2018, 02:39:01 PM
 #8

It seems likely that this recent third bottom of 2018 was the final bottoming out. Don't think price is gonna start going crazy or anything now, though it might go crazy until the ETF verdict, but generally I think we're right at the start of a new bull market.

The last bull market lasted about 2.5 years from mid-2015 to end of 2017. How long do you think this one will be?

I could see it lasting until late 2019 or maybe even late 2020 past the next halving. I think we'll see or get close to $100k on the peak of the next bull run in less than 30 months. I think institutional investors and traditional retail investors (like through ETFs) will drive this bull run, with of course another round of serious FOMO from the public eventually just like late last year.

Now is the time to get in if you're smart money, whether hodling or trading.

This bull run will only last up to the verdict by the SEC - approval or denial. So if the SEC approves it then we might see the bull run sustain it runs. FOMO will pump fresh money again but its really hard to say what will be the price or how long this bull run (if ever) will go. However, a reversal might be in the horizon when a denial is issued again by SEC.

Hope there will be a good news from SEC and this would ba a reason behind current spike. Bringing legislation to crypto in its countru is an another positive news on standardizing crypto moment in its country. So a good news can be heard soon. I am sire this spike will continue and we can see $9k crossing earlier next month. The noal track is back.

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July 24, 2018, 02:45:01 PM
 #9

If anyone actually knew how long this bull run will be, they wouldn't be here on a forum telling us. They'd be off, getting rich.
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July 24, 2018, 03:22:36 PM
 #10

i still think this might be a small rise instead of being a big bull run like what he had constantly last year. after all this is just a 30% rise from the absolute bottom ($6000) if you take the higher level where the rise really began it is about 20% rise then.

for a big bang and breakout above $10k we need the ETF to be approved first. otherwise we may end up having the rise postponed which may not be such a bad thing either as it would make the rise stronger.

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July 24, 2018, 04:31:38 PM
 #11

I'd say a few weeks.  I am comparing to the last large up tick of the 2013/14 rally.  History does like to repeat it's self. IMO 3 year bear market incoming.
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July 24, 2018, 07:31:01 PM
 #12

It seems likely that this recent third bottom of 2018 was the final bottoming out. Don't think price is gonna start going crazy or anything now, though it might go crazy until the ETF verdict, but generally I think we're right at the start of a new bull market.

The last bull market lasted about 2.5 years from mid-2015 to end of 2017. How long do you think this one will be?

I could see it lasting until late 2019 or maybe even late 2020 past the next halving. I think we'll see or get close to $100k on the peak of the next bull run in less than 30 months. I think institutional investors and traditional retail investors (like through ETFs) will drive this bull run, with of course another round of serious FOMO from the public eventually just like late last year.

Now is the time to get in if you're smart money, whether hodling or trading.

I dont think we reached bottom of this Bitcoin cycle yet and this bitcoin run should end close to 10th August. So more then two weeks. bitcoin can grow quite a bit until then.

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July 24, 2018, 07:39:26 PM
 #13

History does like to repeat it's self. IMO 3 year bear market incoming.

In the regular economy, sure, because nothing has changed there in the last few decades. It's as rubbish as it has always been with the same broken fundamentals making sure it won't ever do anything else. In the crypto space we progress much faster and we are constantly growing with new life changing uses and applications coming through. Eventually when we have swallowed so much growth there will be a time where this space will deflate, but just like what happened with the internet, we'll grow much stronger out of it. It will prove to be the best possible buying opportunity at that specific time. Don't underestimate crypto....
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July 24, 2018, 07:41:59 PM
 #14

I'd say a few weeks.  I am comparing to the last large up tick of the 2013/14 rally.  History does like to repeat it's self. IMO 3 year bear market incoming.

There is no reason to think that ''history will repeat itself'' and we will stay 3 years (random number) in  a bear market. You have to consider that bitcoin is extremely new and not new like when a stock starts trading but new new. Bitcoin 3 years ago is totally different than now, history repeating itself doesn't apply here, at all. The volume/money/investors/regulations/exchanges are radically different than 3-4 years ago.

I wouldn't call this a bull run, a bull run occurs when investors believe the positive trend will continue for the long term. I doubt investors believe the trend will continue for the long term considering we have been (and still are) in a bear market.
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July 24, 2018, 07:45:02 PM
 #15

As I research about the bitcoin price from the past few years we may see the bitcoin price goes big for some more days and when the month starts you have to see the another dump in the marketplace for the initial days of August.
From the last week of august to till january month we will find the bitcoin price grow more and it will reach to peak value again mate.

 
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July 24, 2018, 07:52:23 PM
 #16

This is not just a normal spike, all of the indicators are positive including Divergence, MACD over EXP, CCI etc. The volume is just normal though. The indicators alone may drive the spike a bit more but I don't think it will last and it will stay below 10k. There have been quite a bit of positve news and Bitcoin has captured quite a bit of market cap recently to stand over 46% right now.

If this trend holds, we may see a nice spike towards the end of this year.

Maybe just don't look deeper into indicators right now. Wait few days or week to have a data including the recent price action due to huge spikes Cheesy

Good point here. Especially with the volatility of bitcoin, it's hard to make any kind of judgement until more data has consolidated. It would be nice to see a big strong weekly candle up before calling a bull market.

But yes, the movement is quite large, the momentum is good, and there's a clear break of the downtrend and triangle that had been forming for several months. These factors are more comforting to me than any historical data because they are actually price action indicators. History is just history, and while it does follow patterns, it also likes to diverge greatly from those patterns as well.
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July 24, 2018, 09:08:27 PM
 #17

This bull run of bitcoins is not going to stop anytime soon unless a negative news that will hit bitcoins very hard will caused FUD in the market which might end the bitcoin price increase.

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July 24, 2018, 09:15:51 PM
 #18

Now is the time to get in if you're smart money, whether hodling or trading.
I checked the charts and it's so close to reach $8,500 but it didn't went through it.

Yes, it's now the time if some are still waiting for their entry point. You should start making your own decision and starting your entries today before we'll hit highs again before August 10.

Holders will never stop holding and as for the traders, this is a good opportunity to buy and sell it after a couple of days when its all set and spiked.

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July 24, 2018, 09:20:57 PM
 #19

Its very difficult or impossible to tell where a bull run will end.

Last year I assumed Bitcoin wouldn't top $10K and sold a bunch at like $9500 and it went to almost $20000.

Back in May, same situation, people assumed it would break $10K, and it would break $20K, and it went to like $9900 and went back down to a new yearly low.

You can use indicators but they are all lagging and you will get out way too late.

Best way is to just sell a little here and a little there whenever it goes up to a new daily high every few days.





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July 24, 2018, 09:22:44 PM
 #20

I'd say a few weeks.  I am comparing to the last large up tick of the 2013/14 rally.  History does like to repeat it's self. IMO 3 year bear market incoming.

3 years is pushing it a bit, but I tend to agree. I'm still open to a situation like summer 2013, but conventional trading wisdom says "don't plan on it." More importantly, I'm seeing extremely bullish sentiment: Twitter, Tradingview, this forum, all these hedge fund managers and commentators predicting new ATH or 6-figure prices. And always "by the end of the year" too!

When everyone's long, the market usually drops. Wink

I've taken half off my long, and rolling up stops. We should be hitting a supply zone:

I think this is a mid-term bull trap. We've got a solid base, and the repeated attempts to break range to the downside were summarily denied. Now we've run stops above the $6,800 level, giving us a nice squeeze today. $7,500 is another logical stopping point due to the the breakdown in June.

I believe we should trend upwards for a while. There should, however, be major resistance near the $8,400 long term mode. I plan to sell into that area and reassess.

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