Possible outcomes of the Mt. Gox fiasco - my speculation

[sgbett]

With Mtgox well known problem, why the hell with someone want to stay at them?

If I had btc on such lousy exchange, I would just wait the first moment I could make withdrawal. Surely wouldn't want to stay with them.

So, all withdrawals were confirmed fixed, and BTC is 70% cheaper there... I think there will be plenty of others that fancy a bite at that.

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[MAbtc]

I'll say this. As much as the Coindesk article regarding possible Gox insolvency stunk of unsubstantiated accusations, the situation does feel a lot to me like Full Tilt in 2011. I'm still waiting on a FTP payout far larger than my wallets and trading accounts combined -- royally fucked up my life for a really long time. Bitar and those fucking pigs.

Considering their massive visibility and position as the #2 room in the world, none of us regs ever would have thought that the April 2011 seizures would have made even a dent in FTP's capital reserves. Oh, how wrong we were.

Will never make that mistake again. The fact is, we can speculate forever about how much revenue Gox took in, its overhead (including legal costs and seizures -- I have no faith in the operational cost numbers floating around), how much was squandered through mismanagement, and how much was stolen. At the end of the day, we have no idea. The situation is entirely opaque.

Whatever the case, Karpeles answering "that's confidential" when questioned about Gox's solvency is about as pathetic as it gets. It really does seem that he wants to manipulate the market downwards.

[halcyon]

really like this comparison to Full Tilt!

At the moment it´s really speculation whether gox abused customer funds, got hacked or whatever.

[Torque]

Whatever the case, Karpeles answering "that's confidential" when questioned about Gox's solvency is about as pathetic as it gets. It really does seem that he wants to manipulate the market downwards.

Yep.  I mean if there was zero chance that they didn't have all the bitcoins accounted for for every wallet on Gox, don't you think he would of said immediately "That's not true.  We're completely solvent."  

Meaning that someone will eventually get the short end of the stick, when trying to withdrawal their coins.  They will just get blocked.  It'll be a roach motel.

[Money Raccoon]

So what's the consensus here regarding market reaction to another non-announcement? 

You mean more of the same? Jeez, I dunno..