Pantera Capital: Bitcoin Price Will Reach $67,500 by End of 2019

[bbc.reporter]

Pantera has made very healthy returns on their investments in the cryptospace. Would anyone agree in their $67,500 prediction by end of 2019 or do we have no right to challenge it? If yes, then is it better to be sheep and follow Pantera? If no, then would you say that you can beat Pantera's returns for the next 5 years?



On Friday (27 July 2018), blockchain-focused investment firm Pantera Capital Management revealed via a blog post that Pantera Bitcoin Fund had generated a return of 10,136.15% (net of fees and expenses) over the past five years; it also said that it expected the Bitcoin (BTC) price to reach $67,500 by the end of 2019.

Pantera was founded in 2013 by former trader and hedge fund manager Dan Morehead, who is the current co-chief investment officer and CEO. It has over $700 million in assets under management (across two venture funds and four cryptocurrency funds).

Pantera's Bitcoin Fund had its five-year anniversary this month. So, the firm thought it would be interesting to share, via two emails sent out to investors by the CEO in 2013, the basis for its original (and still going strong) belief that Bitcoin would become a global currency and revolutionize how we deal with cross-border payments. Below, we highlight a few key sections from these two emails (we have used bold face used for emphasis.

Read in full https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2018/07/pantera-capital-bitcoin-price-will-reach-67500-by-end-of-2019/

[1715403970]

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[adaseb]

Think about it this way,

IF they have a time-machine and went to Dec 31 2019 and saw that BTC is $67,500 USD.

Do you really think they would tell you that? So you could buy BTC and make price go higher and they would have to pay more for their BTC?

Exactly, these are also speculation guesses. And they only say this because they own Bitcoins and they want people to buy more bitcoins so the price goes up or they want people to stop selling bitcoins so the price doesn't go down.

[magneto]

Just because they've made healthy returns on their investment, doesn't mean that you should instantly believe what they say. Otherwise, you'd be taking Tim Draper's $250k by 2022 prediction very seriously.

Personally, I believe that a bull market could potentially emerge by the end of 2019 just like it did between 2015-2016. But is it going to hit $67k? I doubt it. The halving in 2020 is probably going to have a more bullish effect on the market compared to anything that goes on in 2019.

I think that if given until 2021, this could well be realised, since market sentiment is generally a lot more bullish around a year after the halving. However, I don't see prices recovering that fast and all of a sudden entering a phase of crazy returns, at least it has never happened before. I'd say that it's very unlikely.

[exstasie]

At least some of these hedge fund guys are wising up: "By end of 2019" is a hell of a lot more reasonable than end of 2018!

We all know Bitcoin is bullish as hell, but that's on a long term timeframe (years). Bubbles require time to work through all the resistance/distribution from all the late buyers.

And I also find this market is far more mature now. It reminds me of the oil market. Still highly emotional and relatively volatile, but much slower and choppier than years ago. Patience is really crucial in trading this market (and really, all markets).

[bbc.reporter]

@exstasie. Agreed. I also thought it was reasonable of Pantera to give their price prediction enough time to be fulfilled, if it is to be so hehe.

Maybe this question should be raised. Is Pantera's prediction reasonable enough for you?

[pooya87]

it is weird to see how specific some of these predictions are about bitcoin. i mean why $67500 and why not $70000?
you may think $2500 is a lot of money but it really is not. it is just a 3% higher price and in bitcoin when you are predicting a price in long term. i know they are basically extrapolating data and scientifically speaking 3% in bitcoin market is far below the tolerance of mistake.

[aditasetia123]

Think about it this way,

IF they have a time-machine and went to Dec 31 2019 and saw that BTC is $67,500 USD.

Do you really think they would tell you that? So you could buy BTC and make price go higher and they would have to pay more for their BTC?

Exactly, these are also speculation guesses. And they only say this because they own Bitcoins and they want people to buy more bitcoins so the price goes up or they want people to stop selling bitcoins so the price doesn't go down.

although it just used to attrack more people buying more bitcoin and make demand rise untill hit as they said , they have special reason for their argument.without any basic reasoin. their investor will not trust their money into pantera capital.and lets see for few months later.

[davis196]

The bitcoin price went from 6000 to 8000 USD and all the optimism about the future bitcoin price flooded the crypto world again.We have hundreds of "predictions" by the so called "crypto experts" that the btc price will be 50K,100K,500K or 2M after X amount of time.Where were those predictions last month,when the price was under 6K?Those guys were hiding in a rabit hole back then,now they scream "BUY" all over the place.

[okala]

Pantera has made very healthy returns on their investments in the cryptospace. Would anyone agree in their $67,500 prediction by end of 2019 or do we have no right to challenge it? If yes, then is it better to be sheep and follow Pantera? If no, then would you say that you can beat Pantera's returns for the next 5 years?



On Friday (27 July 2018), blockchain-focused investment firm Pantera Capital Management revealed via a blog post that Pantera Bitcoin Fund had generated a return of 10,136.15% (net of fees and expenses) over the past five years; it also said that it expected the Bitcoin (BTC) price to reach $67,500 by the end of 2019.

Pantera was founded in 2013 by former trader and hedge fund manager Dan Morehead, who is the current co-chief investment officer and CEO. It has over $700 million in assets under management (across two venture funds and four cryptocurrency funds).

Pantera's Bitcoin Fund had its five-year anniversary this month. So, the firm thought it would be interesting to share, via two emails sent out to investors by the CEO in 2013, the basis for its original (and still going strong) belief that Bitcoin would become a global currency and revolutionize how we deal with cross-border payments. Below, we highlight a few key sections from these two emails (we have used bold face used for emphasis.

Read in full https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2018/07/pantera-capital-bitcoin-price-will-reach-67500-by-end-of-2019/

I do have a dream in January and in that dream I see bitcoin around $64,000 and since then I have think that bitcoin may get to that level.  I am happy to see the same or likely predictions from this pantera capital.  I think we would get there if all the events in the future turn out to be positive.

[tosmartak]

-snip-

I do have a dream in January and in that dream I see bitcoin around $64,000 and since then I have think that bitcoin may get to that level.  I am happy to see the same or likely predictions from this pantera capital.  I think we would get there if all the events in the future turn out to be positive.

Dream or no dream, one way or the other for a technology that keeps growing and adoption that keeps increasing, we all know bitcoin will not remain in a stagnant position, but when it will is something absolutely no one can know and we just have to keep following the trend to see where it leads. 2019 is close by and the possibility of seeing a bull year may be there, but all is based on time. Nevertheless, $67,500 at the end of 2019 still seems more of a reasonable prediction with all things working as expected.

[Pursuer]

The bitcoin price went from 6000 to 8000 USD and all the optimism about the future bitcoin price flooded the crypto world again.We have hundreds of "predictions" by the so called "crypto experts" that the btc price will be 50K,100K,500K or 2M after X amount of time.Where were those predictions last month,when the price was under 6K?Those guys were hiding in a rabit hole back then,now they scream "BUY" all over the place.

to be fair many of them used to say basically the same thing before this rise happened too. for example that Chinese dude OP keeps quoting (Tom Lee?) has been a bull for as long as I can tell. he has been saying price will rise up even when it was going down.
the only difference is that during a drop the media tends to post and magnify the negative speculations talking about devastating drops and during rises they do the exact opposite by posting the hyped up huge rises.

[carlisle1]

Think about it this way,

IF they have a time-machine and went to Dec 31 2019 and saw that BTC is $67,500 USD.

Do you really think they would tell you that? So you could buy BTC and make price go higher and they would have to pay more for their BTC?

Exactly, these are also speculation guesses. And they only say this because they own Bitcoins and they want people to buy more bitcoins so the price goes up or they want people to stop selling bitcoins so the price doesn't go down.

Absolutely right,this is another speculation that will only favor them for giving us this hige price expectations

Imagine if people believe on their predictions then many will buy bitcoin and the price definitely will increase if does then they're prediction will go near reality and what they will gain is the asset on their position will increase too

[Florina1990]

I think they have right. This is not a wow prediction, this is a realistic one and all people should just buy and hold 1 bitcoin for long time. All is needed is patient.

[Financial Freedom 4U]

Pantera has made very healthy returns on their investments in the cryptospace. Would anyone agree in their $67,500 prediction by end of 2019 or do we have no right to challenge it? If yes, then is it better to be sheep and follow Pantera? If no, then would you say that you can beat Pantera's returns for the next 5 years?



On Friday (27 July 2018), blockchain-focused investment firm Pantera Capital Management revealed via a blog post that Pantera Bitcoin Fund had generated a return of 10,136.15% (net of fees and expenses) over the past five years; it also said that it expected the Bitcoin (BTC) price to reach $67,500 by the end of 2019.

Pantera was founded in 2013 by former trader and hedge fund manager Dan Morehead, who is the current co-chief investment officer and CEO. It has over $700 million in assets under management (across two venture funds and four cryptocurrency funds).

Pantera's Bitcoin Fund had its five-year anniversary this month. So, the firm thought it would be interesting to share, via two emails sent out to investors by the CEO in 2013, the basis for its original (and still going strong) belief that Bitcoin would become a global currency and revolutionize how we deal with cross-border payments. Below, we highlight a few key sections from these two emails (we have used bold face used for emphasis.

Read in full https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2018/07/pantera-capital-bitcoin-price-will-reach-67500-by-end-of-2019/

Pantera Capital is a serious company that is in the space longer than most others I know and their prediction is based on a lot of correlations that many do not see. Just one example. At the moment most people think the SEC is not going to approve a crypto ETF as it recently rejected several filing as the one of the Winklevoss brothers. The organisation that submitted another ETF did their homework this time and addressed all the important things that were previously ignored. Also they are a leading financial institution with big ties to the SEC.
​
We talk about no one else then the Chicago Board Options Exchange is the largest U.S. options exchange with annual trading volume around 1.27 billion contracts, options on over 2,200 companies, 22 stock indices, and 140 exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

I am sure Pantera Capital knows what‘s going with this deal, they would never risk their reputation by making outlandish predictions if they were not based on solid grounds.

[bbc.reporter]

The bitcoin price went from 6000 to 8000 USD and all the optimism about the future bitcoin price flooded the crypto world again.We have hundreds of "predictions" by the so called "crypto experts" that the btc price will be 50K,100K,500K or 2M after X amount of time.Where were those predictions last month,when the price was under 6K?Those guys were hiding in a rabit hole back then,now they scream "BUY" all over the place.

to be fair many of them used to say basically the same thing before this rise happened too. for example that Chinese dude OP keeps quoting (Tom Lee?) has been a bull for as long as I can tell. he has been saying price will rise up even when it was going down.
the only difference is that during a drop the media tends to post and magnify the negative speculations talking about devastating drops and during rises they do the exact opposite by posting the hyped up huge rises.

Also, we are easily manipulated by the mainstream and bitcoin news media. We resent a bull in bearish times, and we resent the bear in bullish times because we are always caught in the market moments of mania or depression.

In any case, bitcoin is below $8000 now and dropping. I hope Tom Lee is in the news again to confidently state his $25,000 prediction one more time hehehe.

[Biodom]

Any btc price prediction should be taken with a grain of salt.
Is it possible? Yes
Probable? Maybe, if this decline is structurally similar to $250 to $70 decline in the summer of 2013.
Bitmain and Innosilicon (competitor) are producing vast amounts of mining machines and people are buying (so far).

Right now when mining at a cost of 10c/kwh, breakeven point is somewhere at $7000-8000/btc.
How likely would be a five-fold difficulty increase in 1.5-2 years?
Quite likely as it would take slightly less than 4% increase in difficulty per adjustment period (about 13 days).
last five adjustment periods were 6.91% on average.
last 10 adjustment periods were 5.7% on average.

With 5.7% adjustment per 13 day period in the next 1.5 years, btc price would have to be $70000-80000/btc for miners to break even when mining at the end of that period (end of 2019, early 2020).

[maryriver]

They can predict $67,500 by the end of 2019, but then they might be predicting $17,500 at this time next year. Or they might be predicting $167,000. These kinds of things are not worth spending time and energy on because they are very dynamic situations. What looks bullish today can be bearish tomorrow.

We need to evaluate it from a closer level before making sky-high predictions. These guys have done so well that they want to keep up the same sentiment in order to keep doing well. So they promote an attitude towards bitcoin that has helped them to profit in the past.

[Biodom]

They can predict $67,500 by the end of 2019, but then they might be predicting $17,500 at this time next year. Or they might be predicting $167,000. These kinds of things are not worth spending time and energy on because they are very dynamic situations. What looks bullish today can be bearish tomorrow.

We need to evaluate it from a closer level before making sky-high predictions. These guys have done so well that they want to keep up the same sentiment in order to keep doing well. So they promote an attitude towards bitcoin that has helped them to profit in the past.

Yes, but it does not mean anything as far as a likelihood of being right or wrong.

[Financial Freedom 4U]

Any btc price prediction should be taken with a grain of salt.
Is it possible? Yes
Probable? Maybe, if this decline is structurally similar to $250 to $70 decline in the summer of 2013.
Bitmain and Innosilicon (competitor) are producing vast amounts of mining machines and people are buying (so far).

Right now when mining at a cost of 10c/kwh, breakeven point is somewhere at $7000-8000/btc.
How likely would be a five-fold difficulty increase in 1.5-2 years?
Quite likely as it would take slightly less than 4% increase in difficulty per adjustment period (about 13 days).
last five adjustment periods were 6.91% on average.
last 10 adjustment periods were 5.7% on average.

With 5.7% adjustment per 13 day period in the next 1.5 years, btc price would have to be $70000-80000/btc for miners to break even when mining at the end of that period (end of 2019, early 2020).

These are excellent points. I also did a similiar calculation a while ago and realized that btc was not profitable to mine while around 6k. I noticed very few people make an effort and do this kind of analysis. Like you said earlier, people are lost in their emotions instead of keeping a rational outlook or dig a little deeper to understand the costs of mining. Based on that the 60k projection appears suddenly not so outlandish any more.

Alessio Rastani is a financial expert who compared recently the mining of bitcoin with the mining of gold. If Gold prices rise too high, then too many companies invrease their efforts in minining and after some time the over supply will lead to decreasing prices until a good portion miners reduce their efforts or go out of business. I recommend to look at it.

[ssmc2]

Any btc price prediction should be taken with a grain of salt.
Is it possible? Yes
Probable? Maybe, if this decline is structurally similar to $250 to $70 decline in the summer of 2013.
Bitmain and Innosilicon (competitor) are producing vast amounts of mining machines and people are buying (so far).

Right now when mining at a cost of 10c/kwh, breakeven point is somewhere at $7000-8000/btc.
How likely would be a five-fold difficulty increase in 1.5-2 years?
Quite likely as it would take slightly less than 4% increase in difficulty per adjustment period (about 13 days).
last five adjustment periods were 6.91% on average.
last 10 adjustment periods were 5.7% on average.

With 5.7% adjustment per 13 day period in the next 1.5 years, btc price would have to be $70000-80000/btc for miners to break even when mining at the end of that period (end of 2019, early 2020).

These are excellent points. I also did a similiar calculation a while ago and realized that btc was not profitable to mine while around 6k. I noticed very few people make an effort and do this kind of analysis. Like you said earlier, people are lost in their emotions instead of keeping a rational outlook or dig a little deeper to understand the costs of mining. Based on that the 60k projection appears suddenly not so outlandish any more.

Alessio Rastani is a financial expert who compared recently the mining of bitcoin with the mining of gold. If Gold prices rise too high, then too many companies invrease their efforts in minining and after some time the over supply will lead to decreasing prices until a good portion miners reduce their efforts or go out of business. I recommend to look at it.

You realize the supply of bitcoin is set at a fixed rate don't you?

[Bagaji]

The first person that replied has made a very good point and am very much in support of all his/her submission to your question but to add a little, all their submission is just a mere speculation which may and may not come to fulfilment at the end of 2019 and there is no different from what others including myself have speculated in the past of which some came to fulfilment while others were the other way round.

[exstasie]

Any btc price prediction should be taken with a grain of salt.
Is it possible? Yes
Probable? Maybe, if this decline is structurally similar to $250 to $70 decline in the summer of 2013.
Bitmain and Innosilicon (competitor) are producing vast amounts of mining machines and people are buying (so far).

Right now when mining at a cost of 10c/kwh, breakeven point is somewhere at $7000-8000/btc.
How likely would be a five-fold difficulty increase in 1.5-2 years?
Quite likely as it would take slightly less than 4% increase in difficulty per adjustment period (about 13 days).
last five adjustment periods were 6.91% on average.
last 10 adjustment periods were 5.7% on average.

With 5.7% adjustment per 13 day period in the next 1.5 years, btc price would have to be $70000-80000/btc for miners to break even when mining at the end of that period (end of 2019, early 2020).

These are excellent points. I also did a similiar calculation a while ago and realized that btc was not profitable to mine while around 6k. I noticed very few people make an effort and do this kind of analysis. Like you said earlier, people are lost in their emotions instead of keeping a rational outlook or dig a little deeper to understand the costs of mining. Based on that the 60k projection appears suddenly not so outlandish any more.

I see the logic of extrapolating from current profitability, but I don't think it's correct, because it assumes constant bid-side demand.

It doesn't matter what it costs to produce BTC; it only matters what the market is willing to pay for it. If the market isn't willing to pay $60,000 or $80,000 on the above timeline, then difficulty will simply drop. Perhaps it will even plummet in a death spiral.

Miners aren't guaranteed profitability by any means. Marginal miners are constantly getting squeezed out of the market, and if there is a reversal in the general trend, there could be a blood bath of miners shutting down. This is all totally unpredictable.

[Herbert2020]

$67,500 in 2019 is way too much, I know this price is acheiveable if there is a major change or trigger in the price of bitcoin but still yet,  we can't use what happened in  the year 2017 to judge the next price if bitcoin. I say the year 2017 may end with the price of $15,000-$20,000 and won't cross that price. It's just too much to speculate $67,500 so quickly and yet ends up in nothing.

and why do you think it is "too much", what criteria is making a price "too much" and another "too low"?

bitcoin is extremely under-priced not just because it went to a certain price and came back but because of what it does and what it is and also the limited supply that it has. when price goes from $1000 to $20000 in one year it shows how much money has always been waiting to come in and how much demand there is for bitcoin. everyone plays it down specially the media to pretend it is not happening but it is.

[Wind_FURY]

$67,500 in 2019 is way too much, I know this price is acheiveable if there is a major change or trigger in the price of bitcoin but still yet,  we can't use what happened in  the year 2017 to judge the next price if bitcoin. I say the year 2017 may end with the price of $15,000-$20,000 and won't cross that price. It's just too much to speculate $67,500 so quickly and yet ends up in nothing.

and why do you think it is "too much", what criteria is making a price "too much" and another "too low"?

bitcoin is extremely under-priced not just because it went to a certain price and came back but because of what it does and what it is and also the limited supply that it has. when price goes from $1000 to $20000 in one year it shows how much money has always been waiting to come in and how much demand there is for bitcoin. everyone plays it down specially the media to pretend it is not happening but it is.

Plus "the end of 2019" is only 5 months away from the next halving. The market may react positively earlier or later, but I am fairly optimistic that Bitcoin could find its real value and will be "flying" on 6 figures by end of 2020.

[maryriver]

Any btc price prediction should be taken with a grain of salt.
Is it possible? Yes
Probable? Maybe, if this decline is structurally similar to $250 to $70 decline in the summer of 2013.
Bitmain and Innosilicon (competitor) are producing vast amounts of mining machines and people are buying (so far).

Right now when mining at a cost of 10c/kwh, breakeven point is somewhere at $7000-8000/btc.
How likely would be a five-fold difficulty increase in 1.5-2 years?
Quite likely as it would take slightly less than 4% increase in difficulty per adjustment period (about 13 days).
last five adjustment periods were 6.91% on average.
last 10 adjustment periods were 5.7% on average.

With 5.7% adjustment per 13 day period in the next 1.5 years, btc price would have to be $70000-80000/btc for miners to break even when mining at the end of that period (end of 2019, early 2020).

These are excellent points. I also did a similiar calculation a while ago and realized that btc was not profitable to mine while around 6k. I noticed very few people make an effort and do this kind of analysis. Like you said earlier, people are lost in their emotions instead of keeping a rational outlook or dig a little deeper to understand the costs of mining. Based on that the 60k projection appears suddenly not so outlandish any more.

I see the logic of extrapolating from current profitability, but I don't think it's correct, because it assumes constant bid-side demand.

It doesn't matter what it costs to produce BTC; it only matters what the market is willing to pay for it. If the market isn't willing to pay $60,000 or $80,000 on the above timeline, then difficulty will simply drop. Perhaps it will even plummet in a death spiral.

Miners aren't guaranteed profitability by any means. Marginal miners are constantly getting squeezed out of the market, and if there is a reversal in the general trend, there could be a blood bath of miners shutting down. This is all totally unpredictable.

This is what I'm thinking as well. There isn't a logical extrapolation from past prices because the demand can't be predicted using the same patterns. How do we know that there will still be such a demand for the coin in the future after such a big orgasmic speculative burst last winter? Maybe the people who got hurt told all their friends to stay away from bitcoin and no one's gonna come back. Or maybe hedge funds are piling on their shorts and hoping the rocket will run out of fuel. Or, maybe it will go back up again.

Miners are going to be in even more trouble when the next halvening comes around.