Looking to get into the Mining Game this 2014? It is possible! A must read!

[DrG]

I think the retail people like you and us make up less than 5% of the total hashrate.  Those higher up in the foodchain probably get equipment more than 50% cheaper than us so they can continue to mine for awhile and the rate still goes up because there is competition between the suppliers who can make more and faster, wafers, chips, boards, kits, etc. As the margins get squeezed for even the manufacturers, those that are the slowest to develop newer and faster and cost efficient equipment will falter..............  BFL, Black Arrow  and KNC soon.

Yeah the people who in the past would order 20 SC Singles from BFL in 2012 are now contacting the ASIC companies directly and asking for their units to be shipped straight to data centers with lower overhead.  No worries about heat, noise, uptime (short of the unit failing).

[jimmothy]

Mining will be almost impossible by the end of the year when difficulty is 100 billion.  Companies are having trouble making newer hardware to offset the fast increase in difficulty.

Use it in your advantage. If by the end of the year you are running hardware that has already paid itself, and network difficulty freezes because returns are so low that nobody buy new miners (mining is a risky business, no person nor company buys hardware if they wont reach ROI within 12 months), then you got yourself a steady income until the next technology jump (in 2-3 years). If you multiply it by having not 1, but few miners, you got yourself a fat second salary.

There is nothing more efficient that 20nm. That is already the state of the art. Not even Intel has got smaller than that.
28/20 = 1.4. Neptunes should consume about 30%-40% less electricity than TerraminersIV/Jupiters , if both work at same clock speed. TerraMiners IV will get obsoleted long before Neptunes do.

That's at least my master plan. My Neptunes are fully paid. And I have another bit of coins waiting for buying few TH/s in KNC datacenter (coming second half 2014), however I am more confident in the Neptunes than in just buying hashing power.

By the end of the year difficulty will be 500-900 Billion.  Put that in the BTC calculator for profit return.  A 30TH unit will make $10 profit a day.

For difficulty to rise so much the price of btc will have to go up drastically so it will not be $10 per day. People will stop dumping money in to mining hardware when it cost more to produce the hardware than you can earn in btc.

[samsonn25]

This is what KNC does with Pre-Order money:


http://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/1.2276893-datorhall-for-bitcoin-byggs-i-boden

[libitum]

I think the retail people like you and us make up less than 5% of the total hashrate.  Those higher up in the foodchain probably get equipment more than 50% cheaper than us so they can continue to mine for awhile and the rate still goes up because there is competition between the suppliers who can make more and faster, wafers, chips, boards, kits, etc. As the margins get squeezed for even the manufacturers, those that are the slowest to develop newer and faster and cost efficient equipment will falter..............  BFL, Black Arrow  and KNC soon.

Which brings the topic of the operational costs. If a vendor gets a miner at $0, then they still need to run it. They will pay electricity (20% cheaper than residential costs on average), cooling, personnel, rent, taxes, etc. From those operational costs, about half is electricity.
If network hashing power goes so high that manufacturers can not run their miners at a profit (eg. Selling the mined bitcoins pays only 2x the electricity costs, which barely cover its costs) then even manufacturers will stop at that point to put more miners in the network. If there is no profit on it, there is no investors money. There is a "cost of opportunity" of money. No investor puts money in a high risk enterprise without expectation of a big return.

Also consider that half the current hashing power is made up of old tech ASICS, which consume 2W/GH.
The other half (1W/GH - 1.2W/GH) started shipping only late 2013 in limited quantities, as there are not many factories worldwide that can produce massive amount of 28nm asics.

The new generation 20nm ASICS (KNC Neptunes, review here), will consume 30% less than 28nm ASICS (according to KNCMiner). That means about 0.7 W/GH. Then 100% of the current network hashing will be obsoleted long before your Neptune is out of business.
28nm ASICS (whichever vendor) are also top of the line, and only bested by the new generation 20nm Neptunes.

Then retail miners like us, if using 20nm-28nm asics, still have a chance against vendors mining themselves. Not like in 2013, but still barely profitable to have it as a second steady income besides our daily jobs.

[libitum]

I think the retail people like you and us make up less than 5% of the total hashrate.  Those higher up in the foodchain probably get equipment more than 50% cheaper than us so they can continue to mine for awhile and the rate still goes up because there is competition between the suppliers who can make more and faster, wafers, chips, boards, kits, etc. As the margins get squeezed for even the manufacturers, those that are the slowest to develop newer and faster and cost efficient equipment will falter..............  BFL, Black Arrow  and KNC soon.

Yeah the people who in the past would order 20 SC Singles from BFL in 2012 are now contacting the ASIC companies directly and asking for their units to be shipped straight to data centers with lower overhead.  No worries about heat, noise, uptime (short of the unit failing).

That is too expensive. Now that BTC income from mining is 10X-15X the cost of electricity, it can be paid. But eventually running your own hardware in datacenters will be too expensive. At first I ordered more Neptunes that I could run at home, and started contacting datacenters to rent a rack and put those there. Datacenters costs (i put in my first post the cheapest option that I almost took) are no less than 4X the cost of household electricity. Now I canceled the orders that I cannot ran at home (however I am eagerly waiting the 3 Neptunes I can run at home), and I am waiting for the second half 2014, when KNC starts selling hashing power in their mega datacenter. That still will be more expensive that running those at home, but the advantage of no worries (heat,noise,...), plus not being able to run more at home, justifies the price.

[libitum]

By the end of the year difficulty will be 500-900 Billion.  Put that in the BTC calculator for profit return.  A 30TH unit will make $10 profit a day.

You know better than that. Calculators are not meant to be used for more than 2-3 months in the future. Then you could use the same calculator for the end of next year, and find out that you will need half world electricity to power the trillions bitcoin miners, the surface covered by miners will be 10% of worlds surface, and people mining will pay $100 in electricity for ever $0.01 in BTC they can mine.

[samsonn25]

just being fececious,

 its getting so crazy im selling my 1.8TH equipment to just buy the coins on dips and trade them

[DrG]

I think the retail people like you and us make up less than 5% of the total hashrate.  Those higher up in the foodchain probably get equipment more than 50% cheaper than us so they can continue to mine for awhile and the rate still goes up because there is competition between the suppliers who can make more and faster, wafers, chips, boards, kits, etc. As the margins get squeezed for even the manufacturers, those that are the slowest to develop newer and faster and cost efficient equipment will falter..............  BFL, Black Arrow  and KNC soon.

Yeah the people who in the past would order 20 SC Singles from BFL in 2012 are now contacting the ASIC companies directly and asking for their units to be shipped straight to data centers with lower overhead.  No worries about heat, noise, uptime (short of the unit failing).

That is too expensive. Now that BTC income from mining is 10X-15X the cost of electricity, it can be paid. But eventually running your own hardware in datacenters will be too expensive. At first I ordered more Neptunes that I could run at home, and started contacting datacenters to rent a rack and put those there. Datacenters costs (i put in my first post the cheapest option that I almost took) are no less than 4X the cost of household electricity. Now I canceled the orders that I cannot ran at home (however I am eagerly waiting the 3 Neptunes I can run at home), and I am waiting for the second half 2014, when KNC starts selling hashing power in their mega datacenter. That still will be more expensive that running those at home, but the advantage of no worries (heat,noise,...), plus not being able to run more at home, justifies the price.

You do know there are people who have establish mining datacenters - colocation.  Look into it.  It's the reason many claim ASICs have destroyed decentralization.

[samsonn25]

A simple question is why would large Asic companies rent hashrates when they can mine for themselves and make more money? 

Unless the people buying the hashrates are paying more than it is worth?  But im sure the average person could calculate that??

[jimmothy]

A simple question is why would large Asic companies rent hashrates when they can mine for themselves and make more money? 

Unless the people buying the hashrates are paying more than it is worth?  But im sure the average person could calculate that??

Few reasons:

-manufacturer would need an absurd amount of electricity to power any significant amount of asics.

-people buy hardware for more than it can possibly mine.

-mining is extremely risky. Selling hardware is easier/faster/more profitable.

[jamesc760]

If you enjoy turning your 1.0 BTC into 0.01 BTC, please by all means go ahead and purchase a miner now.

[djtriggz]

the only way to actually make money from mining is by pre ordering

[Searing]

If you enjoy turning your 1.0 BTC into 0.01 BTC, please by all means go ahead and purchase a miner now.

imho the only way to mine is to get in early with a pre-order (unfortunately) and the only way it would work
imho would be something like what happened on the knc fall orders...even w/o the price rise from a hobby
point of view you could at least mine for fun and get ROI...or very likely

now w/o such assurances on a device showing up in a timely manner or in knc's case (only one i know of)
you can get a refund up to shipping....then add to that a reputable firm like knc saying they want to be
the largest hash farm for bitcoin in the world (and up till lately they were the ones with the white hats
in all this btc mining drama!)

well...very very little wiggle room for a miner

i had a 2nd batch knc order at 13.2k i cancelled i'm hanging on to the customer appreciation priced
1st order neptune ad 10.2k or so...but it is looking pretty likely I'm gonna punt that back too....
I really at am a loss for all the people 'overpaying" at bfl cointerra and to a lesser extent amt etc
on miners that you don't even have an 'out' for a refund if things go 'strange' and man lately in the
bitcoin world things have been going really really strange

so if you get a 'modest' miner say ...a antminer say that ships quick or something like that cause
you want to just mine and if it takes a while to get ROI or maybe miss stuff but for fun...sure
go ahead and mine

but in my own case unless knc on the neptunes comes out an says they are moving out the door
by april 1st and hey are 4TH rather then 3TH or some other magic to compensate for the cost
and the ridiculous rise in difficulty...i'll take the USD back and figure out a more 'modest' plan
to just buy btc

and remember i'm like number 10 or some such on the line of the 1st batch of neptunes
coming out and i can SORTA twist the numbers about that i can get a bit more then ROI
MAYBE ..but some of that may be slippage in my mind cause i like the hobby ..so i can
take a bit of a loss on this gamble

but numbers don't lie and  we know have that perfect storm of mining difficulty going way
up due to investements probably locked in from back when btc was 1000 usd and the
silly humans sabotaging a perfectly fine running senario with mtgox and price tanking

worst fears indeed ......

anyway keep this in mind if you think i have any decent view on this (doubtful) but
i'm in a pretty good position with my 1st batch neptune i sure would not be holding on
to a 2nd batch or 3rd batch neptune ...nor would i be buying a cointerra 400gh card
for 1.5k due out in july either nor butterfly labs nor cointerra etc

it not only is getting ugly out their it an't looking too pretty at the present moment
either

anyway...hanging on by my fingernails for another 2 weeks (easy to be brave with a
knc unit if you can get a refund....at least)

good luck but be very very "modest" on your idea of getting mining equip now
imho

Searing

[samsonn25]

There has been alot of luck involed with the KNC first batches too. Saturn and Jupiter.

Those that pre-ordered the Saturn and Jupiter early would have lost money on the investments back in September if it were not the price of BTC magically jumping from $110 to $1000 in November.

[Searing]

There has been alot of luck involed with the KNC first batches too. Saturn and Jupiter.

Those that pre-ordered the Saturn and Jupiter early would have lost money on the investments back in September if it were not the price of BTC magically jumping from $110 to $1000 in November.

yeah it was a close thing by 2 weeks..but you all know how it works...someone that is a noob will always in my view ..finding out about bitcoin "buy some hardware to mine coins first" then ..they figure out you may be better off buying btc later

in my case with a refund option (and after bfl felt a certain warmth towards knc for giving 555gh rather then 250gh..unlike the sc*m that is bfl)

I stuck with it and got the miner

also at 150 btc...I figured it would take me 9months to make ROI and maybe if lucky I could make house util payments for the next 6 months mining and then selling the unit on ebay...it was a hobby ...my goals were modest

it went to 1250 bucks like 4 or so weeks after I got it oct 18th..then the stress began

but yeah everyone new to bitcoin I ever knew bought equip first ....the fear of dropping 5K on equip that makes something outweighs the logic of maybe getting more coin by just dropping usd to coin.....shudder

still may be the truth I've refunded the 2nd Neptune will get 13.2k back..i doubt i'll have the 'balls" to dump 13.2k in bitcoin purchases this first week of march ..yet the same scenario of getting my Neptune the 1st week or so of march and mining for the same cash would have thrilled me no end

go figure

but the truth is with all the drama with btc lately a little caution from mow till july may not be altogether a bad thing....the heady times of 1250 usd btc may come back but maybe I should just kinda creep up on the beastie this time .....take a bit of time ......stalk the Wiley bitcoin

(sigh Minnesota I'm cold/old/bored and numb..got to do something...should call it "bitcoin the virtual soap opera..imho...)

Searing

[DrG]

There has been alot of luck involed with the KNC first batches too. Saturn and Jupiter.

Those that pre-ordered the Saturn and Jupiter early would have lost money on the investments back in September if it were not the price of BTC magically jumping from $110 to $1000 in November.

yeah it was a close thing by 2 weeks..but you all know how it works...someone that is a noob will always in my view ..finding out about bitcoin "buy some hardware to mine coins first" then ..they figure out you may be better off buying btc later

in my case with a refund option (and after bfl felt a certain warmth towards knc for giving 555gh rather then 250gh..unlike the sc*m that is bfl)

I stuck with it and got the miner

also at 150 btc...I figured it would take me 9months to make ROI and maybe if lucky I could make house util payments for the next 6 months mining and then selling the unit on ebay...it was a hobby ...my goals were modest

it went to 1250 bucks like 4 or so weeks after I got it oct 18th..then the stress began

but yeah everyone new to bitcoin I ever knew bought equip first ....the fear of dropping 5K on equip that makes something outweighs the logic of maybe getting more coin by just dropping usd to coin.....shudder

still may be the truth I've refunded the 2nd Neptune will get 13.2k back..i doubt i'll have the 'balls" to dump 13.2k in bitcoin purchases this first week of march ..yet the same scenario of getting my Neptune the 1st week or so of march and mining for the same cash would have thrilled me no end

go figure

but the truth is with all the drama with btc lately a little caution from mow till july may not be altogether a bad thing....the heady times of 1250 usd btc may come back but maybe I should just kinda creep up on the beastie this time .....take a bit of time ......stalk the Wiley bitcoin

(sigh Minnesota I'm cold/old/bored and numb..got to do something...should call it "bitcoin the virtual soap opera..imho...)

Searing

Haha.  I know what you mean, and this is what the noobs don't understand.  Your head knows buying $13,200USD worth of BTC is low risk (assuming you expect BTC to live).  The heart enjoys the thrill of hearing fans, seeing scroll logs of hashes, and seeing microtransactions trickle into your wallet.  You would probably never mine back that 26 or so BTC, but it's so much fun.... until your wife sees the electric bill 

[Searing]

There has been alot of luck involed with the KNC first batches too. Saturn and Jupiter.

Those that pre-ordered the Saturn and Jupiter early would have lost money on the investments back in September if it were not the price of BTC magically jumping from $110 to $1000 in November.

yeah it was a close thing by 2 weeks..but you all know how it works...someone that is a noob will always in my view ..finding out about bitcoin "buy some hardware to mine coins first" then ..they figure out you may be better off buying btc later

in my case with a refund option (and after bfl felt a certain warmth towards knc for giving 555gh rather then 250gh..unlike the sc*m that is bfl)

I stuck with it and got the miner

also at 150 btc...I figured it would take me 9months to make ROI and maybe if lucky I could make house util payments for the next 6 months mining and then selling the unit on ebay...it was a hobby ...my goals were modest

it went to 1250 bucks like 4 or so weeks after I got it oct 18th..then the stress began

but yeah everyone new to bitcoin I ever knew bought equip first ....the fear of dropping 5K on equip that makes something outweighs the logic of maybe getting more coin by just dropping usd to coin.....shudder

still may be the truth I've refunded the 2nd Neptune will get 13.2k back..i doubt i'll have the 'balls" to dump 13.2k in bitcoin purchases this first week of march ..yet the same scenario of getting my Neptune the 1st week or so of march and mining for the same cash would have thrilled me no end

go figure

but the truth is with all the drama with btc lately a little caution from mow till july may not be altogether a bad thing....the heady times of 1250 usd btc may come back but maybe I should just kinda creep up on the beastie this time .....take a bit of time ......stalk the Wiley bitcoin

(sigh Minnesota I'm cold/old/bored and numb..got to do something...should call it "bitcoin the virtual soap opera..imho...)

Searing

Haha.  I know what you mean, and this is what the noobs don't understand.  Your head knows buying $13,200USD worth of BTC is low risk (assuming you expect BTC to live).  The heart enjoys the thrill of hearing fans, seeing scroll logs of hashes, and seeing microtransactions trickle into your wallet.  You would probably never mine back that 26 or so BTC, but it's so much fun.... until your wife sees the electric bill 

well I can eat a :bit: for the cause of mining ...a few coins here and there less...but alas it is looking like I'm gonna have to punt

my only real hope is knc pulling another rabbit out of their hat like starting virtual miners by end of march till they ACTUALLY ship physical
miners as they stated (not sure I'd jump in full hosting at this point)
and/or they come out with 4TH or some such around that scenario as well

I'm likely simply clutching at straws.....in all this ...but I can refund up to shipping so can "lurk" for a bit longer in the Neptune que

what really concerns me and makes me think it is all just gonna go south and knc is going full farm only (ie would rather have us all cancel
and get the equip for their farm and go private)

is the disappearance  of bitcoinorama...... seems ominous....he may know that we are gonna get shafted in this well anyway at least
full refund manner....(but shuffled aside for their new plan non the less)

and has been booted/quit and/or left this forum as a result (likely a non-disclosure agreement)...if when they do not deliver at
that point he may come back but it kinda looks like he is gone and muzzled for the time being ..or so it seems

well still hanging on by my fingernails but quite frankly another week or two of this with knc's gh hashing farm now coming up to speed
(see other threads)....coward that I am ..I will get my whimpy butt out of all this with my last Neptune refund soonest

(we who live to run away can buy a different miner on a different day ..er maybe)

Searing

[samsonn25]

I just sold 8 of my 10 miners, 2 left to go.  Im giving up

[libitum]

I just sold 8 of my 10 miners, 2 left to go.  Im giving up

10 miners! That's quite a rig there!
5 months ago 1 of my Jupiters made 1 BTC per day. Now it does merely 0.085 BTC per day. That means that now I make 8.5% with the very same hardware. Crazy! Difficulty raised so much that just thinking about it is breathtaking.
With current difficulty, my Jupiter makes 14*0.085 = 1.19 BTC. Or assuming another 20% bi-weekly difficulty increase, 2 BTC for the next month.
At current prices ($580 per BTC), that is $ 1160, minus $100 to pay electricity.

So 1 Jupiter still makes quite a bit of money. I will make over thousand bucks next month! Per Jupiter! That is the reason I am still so optimistic and eagerly waiting my next generation miners (Neptunes), and I see difficulty raising as an opportunity to be one of the last standing, once bitcoin mining becomes a stable, low income, low risk business, by the end of this year (according to my calculations).
I dont pretend to reach ROI within a month. Within 6-12 months will work for me, and after that it will be just a second salary. According to my calculations, a stable monthly $500-800 per Neptune (after paying electricity).