The eternal question

[Existence]

I keep hearing the same question over and over again: what will happen to bitcoin? Will it grow? Will it drop? I mostly get this from people far from the crypto world.
 
At the same time, people familiar with the matter collect ‘mathematical signs’. Here is a diagram – they point at some diagram – and this means either growth or decline. Those people are disconnected from reality and do not learn from history. 
 
There were guys who founded a company called Long-Term Capital Management back in the 90s. Two Nobel laureates were among the founders. They honestly believed in the predictive power of statistics, mathematics and probability theory. Then, a number of events those guys considered unlikely or even impossible occurred in 1998. The company went bankrupt. Predictive power of mathematical models proved ineffective on the exchange. Now everybody forgot this story: people still like hiring physicists and developing AI to gamble on stock exchanges.   
 
Personally, I do not believe in such things. Nobody can predict the future. Neither Warren Buffett, nor physicists, let alone economists. And astrologists can’t help because they are not good with predictions either. Thus, my conclusion is relatively simple: nobody knows what the future will bring. 
 
We can try to build the future we want, though. Do I want crypto and bitcoin to grow? I do. I’m not going to lie. I will get profits from this. But what keeps BTC from growing? Bad marketing. 
 
Many ordinary people know there is such thing as bitcoin and some even know what cryptocurrencies are. The thing is, an ordinary person does not have any reasons to get into this game. Many members of the crypto community do not think much of newcomers, taking them for fools because they did not see the potential in cryptocurrencies. However, the whole crypto world now is not bigger than an Esperanto lovers club. So if we want the crypto community to expand, we need new blood; in fact, we need more people than we already have. 
 
I believe that our task is to attract ordinary people in the crypto world, not to treat them as fools. The long-awaited growth of crypto will happen only if we adopt this policy. 
 
The next fair question is: what should we do? How can we attract people? 
There always are unemployed people, people with lots of free time and those who work from home. Me and my team are currently putting a great deal of energy and time into attracting freelancers, people who want to offer their services, to our marketplace where they can find clients and receive payments in crypto. We have to explain (over and over again) how to receive and store crypto, and what they can do with it afterwards. And you know what? Almost all of them agree to publish their ads on our website. This is additional income and advertising – so, why not?
 
I’m not saying we are doing everything right. I just think that our actions have more impact on the community than endless attempts to predict the future of bitcoin.

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[Pursuer]

it is because part of the bitcoin community consists of speculators who have invested in bitcoin and are looking for profit, some of them are newbies. speculators tend to talk only about the price and what will happen to it. it is not about predicting the future it is about making the best guess. if you don't want to see price related discussions then don't hang out in places that are for price related discussions. for example go to this board instead. it is like going to a Forex forum (random example) and say why is everyone talking about USD price?!

of course it is inevitable at times to see a large number of people who are only interested in profit making. it is a necessary evil that comes with the magnificent performance of bitcoin.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Can't we be both? Like many others here, I am of the opinion that Bitcoin and blockchain technology will be revolutionary in the finance sector. But let's be honest, we are almost all trying to make some money too, and therefore also interested in price movements and speculation.

[airinnesmith26]

You can't take this away. Bitcoin has become a speculative asset. Speculation will be there everywhere and everytime.

[danherbias07]

Can't we be both? Like many others here, I am of the opinion that Bitcoin and blockchain technology will be revolutionary in the finance sector. But let's be honest, we are almost all trying to make some money too, and therefore also interested in price movements and speculation.

This one is true.

Look, you can always avoid those types of threads and just read those you think best suits your appeal.
You have the capability to choose and they are not forcing it to you.
There will always be speculators and that is non stop as long as bitcoin have a price.

Some people joined just because they see how bitcoin fluctuates too hard. Bull or bear. It doesnt matter. They think they can profit from it so they risked their own money for it.

If it really affects the value of bitcoin then we could have been so deep now with maybe back to 3 digits but it didnt go there so we are okay.
There, I am now speculating too.   It just happens for most of the time when you are trying to explain something.

The good thing is, there are still supporters like you.   Merits.

[delphic]

Absolutely agree! Without attracting new people, this system simply will not develop! After all, the idea is just the same in that all eventually switched to crypto currency. People need to explain that this, since many do not understand at all and therefore are afraid to work with it .

[Awesomus Maximus]

The next fair question is: what should we do? How can we attract people? 

I think it will be easier in the future. The newer generations are good with computers, practically born with them, so they will be naturally attracted to crypto. They will learn how to use wallets and take care of security much easier than the older generations.

We have to explain (over and over again) how to receive and store crypto, and what they can do with it afterwards. And you know what? Almost all of them agree to publish their ads on our website.

Education is the key. We don't have enough education, so it's good to hear that you put extra effort on educating people. Good luck.

[darkangel11]

You're right OP. I always say that TA doesn't work because there are so many factors to consider that some of them will always end up being inconclusive and pointing at different outcome. Just watch some of the TA specialists on youtube. Their predictions always look like this: "Bitcoin will either break this support or it won't. If it breaks it we'll go up by $500 and if it doesn't we will go down by $500" So whatever happens they will say they were right.
Most analysts focus on numbers but what's driving the price is the news. For instance, when BTC went up after the news about the ETF, TA specialists were saying that we hit the bottom and are in a bull market, now the decision got postponed, and the analysts are saying that we're probably still in a bear market... Please! If the ETF gets rejected they'll say that "the charts are showing the need to retest the bottom"

[d5000]

Overall I agree with you, @Existence, above all if we're talking about the long term. Just some remarks:

Personally, I do not believe in such things. Nobody can predict the future. Neither Warren Buffett, nor physicists, let alone economists. And astrologists can’t help because they are not good with predictions either. Thus, my conclusion is relatively simple: nobody knows what the future will bring.  

"Technical analysis" - the technique you refer to - isn't natural science. It looks like "pure, unquestionable math" but in reality it belongs to the category of Humanities, because their "patterns" are based on certain psychological effects.

A double bottom (simple and well-known bullish pattern) is a good example: People (who have entered a long position) looking at a chart seeing that the price has moved to the upside two times at the same mark are likely to believe that this price is a "fair bottom". This effect is magnified if they know that the "double bottom" pattern exists in TA and people take it into account when trading - and, above all, that lots of bots do the same thing.

But these patterns are not a Law of Nature: They only work if they correspond with the prevailing sentiment. A double bottom is worthless if there are fundamental problems with the asset (in this case, Bitcoin) that make a bearish outcome more likely.
 
So if you base your trading only on diagrams and statistics without knowing the bases then it will most likely go wrong (except if you're just lucky). But if you take into account the theories behind it, then you may get an advantage out of TA.

The more complicated TA patterns are, the more they look like astrology, and the less relevant they are, for me.

I just think that our actions have more impact on the community than endless attempts to predict the future of bitcoin.

If "our" doesn't include only your company but the community in general , then you're completely right. The long-term future of Bitcoin, as an open source community product, depends completely on contributions of different kinds - software development, ecosystem development (like your company) and word of mouth/communications.

[herodrx]

Bitcoin was created for easier, faster and a secured transaction method but so were fiat currencies. People in their sole nature try to make benefit out of whatever they work for, the very reason why bitcoin is famous now, more returns more interest, more implementation. In midst of all the making and earning, we figure out and learn from our mistakes, and the best decisions are then put on the plate.

[patron bounty]

Can't we be both? Like many others here, I am of the opinion that Bitcoin and blockchain technology will be revolutionary in the finance sector. But let's be honest, we are almost all trying to make some money too, and therefore also interested in price movements and speculation.

yeah, everyone is monitoring bitcoin prices every time i think that's why they are asking the same question over and over again.

[KingScorpio]

it is because part of the bitcoin community consists of speculators who have invested in bitcoin and are looking for profit, some of them are newbies. speculators tend to talk only about the price and what will happen to it. it is not about predicting the future it is about making the best guess. if you don't want to see price related discussions then don't hang out in places that are for price related discussions. for example go to this board instead. it is like going to a Forex forum (random example) and say why is everyone talking about USD price?!

of course it is inevitable at times to see a large number of people who are only interested in profit making. it is a necessary evil that comes with the magnificent performance of bitcoin.

you are a sect, the speculators are seeking profits, adn supporting you, and they will drop you if their short term expectations wont be med,

you called ghosts which you know cant get rid of with your promises:

bitcoin the worlds future currency, -> there are higher forces in the world that decide about currency not just you and technological advantage which btc. btw. lost already.

regards

[carter34]

You can't take this away. Bitcoin has become a speculative asset. Speculation will be there everywhere and everytime.

No I do not think you are right with your statement. You don't live on speculation for an asset. Bitcoin is analysed just like forex too because it also works with such principles basically, the technological or fundamental.

[lightcar]

there is too much money invested in bitcoin mining for it to die.  These large companies will never let it die because if they do massive amounts of money will be lost.

[RodeoX]

When I traded more stocks and bonds I was always surprised at how many smart people put their faith in technical analysis. TA in markets like the NYSE is not good at all. In fact the very top quants rarely do better than guessing. Yet people think there is some guru somewhere who knows the answer.

[My Opinion] In crypto it is impossible to do meaningful TA. it is far to opaque, you don't know all the trades, it is happening 24/7 around the world in diverse markets and languages. You can't even know who owns what. TA in bitcoin is just a way for people who can't make a decision to pull the trigger. [/My Opinion]

[Kprawn]

My opinion on this is best described by this joke :

Bob : Do you know how weather prediction is done?

Sam : Nope!

Bop : Well, Four people in the weather office is asked to look out the window and to say if it is going to rain tomorrow. They

then go to the window and come back to give their report. So if 2 says NO and the other 2 says YES, then it is logical to

assume that there is a 50% chance of rain tomorrow.  

The same thing happens with Bitcoin predictions... Some people make some wild predictions and post it on the internet and

other people quote them and before you know it, people accept that it is going to happen.  

[RodeoX]

Here it is as an equation.

O + N = A worthless value

Where O = opinion and N = a number value

 

[pawanjain]

That's certainly true mate. There are many who take the beginners for granted but not all. I myself welcome most of the newbies to the crypto community and explain them what it is all about and solve their problems related to crypto. I say most and not all because some people come here just to annoy others. We can call them the haters. I had recently taught a person most of the things I know about crypto and the Bitcointalk forum and damn he was happy to be a part of it.

[Gabri]

The world of cryptocurrency is growing exponentially every day, many beginners learned about it from their friends. Of course, the media actively humiliate the cryptocurrency, but this wave can not be stopped. The ordinary man in the street already understood that it is possible to earn. Even on this forum very long time ago I called a friend, I do not believe that it can earn. It will not stop. Every day there are more of us. Those who believe in cryptocurrency.

[tailor.and]

About bad marketing I would say it as negative marketing. It is also helping BTC market to grow as it creates hype in people and makes people interested to know about Cryptospace. Also we the people involved in here should make people aware of cryptospace  and make people involved in here. But they should at first know deeply before they involve.