Bitcoin Halving and price

[Sherwood_Archer]

Here's an interesting price prediction that uses an approach based on the halving principle:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/oKh54NhX-Bitcoin-Halving-and-Charting/

The Bitcoin network issues new coins every 10 minutes, but the amount issued is cut in half every 4 years. It started at 50, went to 25 in 2012, and is now at 12.5 new coins every 10 minutes.

This guy's prediction is based on that principle. He takes a logarithmic approach (which is why the chart looks different from what you usually see) and a statistical analysis (which I don't know much about)

What do you guys think?

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[Jamie Oliver]

If the BTC is halved, it will definitely promote the price. The price may increase by 80% to 100%, and the market heat will also follow.

[1Referee]

What usually happens is that the price increases in the runup to the event, which happened prior to the previous block halving as well.

By the time the halving took place people were wondering why the price wasn't going up, where they completely ignored the fact that the halving was already priced in. It's somewhat similar to buy the rumor sell the news, but since the block halving is fundamentally so important for Bitcoin, there is no sell the news aside from some people securing profits, which happens after every increase. After the block halving we can expect steady growth.

[cellard]

I would say the halving starts having an impact on price up to 3 months prior actual halving. People start realizing soon the remaining bitcoins will become harder to extract and there will be fewer of them, so anyone that has had been waiting for a perfect entry point starts getting nervous. This typically starts a chain reaction of all the doubters becoming buyers, but it happens gradually. As the halving approaches the FOMO kicks in exponentially, but there is no sell off, at least no by anyone with a brain, since the cut in supply will set higher floors and you would be really dumb to sell your coins.

Eventually there will be no point in ever selling bitcoin. The risk of doing so will be higher than the rewards. You'll just keep your wealth in bitcoin and only sell when you really need to buy something, not because of speculating against USD.

[BrewMaster]

all these speculations are correct but why now? it is way too soon to talk about the halving which is not going to happen for another 2 years (in 2020) and until then we are going to have a lot of changes in the market. i will grow a lot by then. we may be at $500k and the market may be big enough so that things like halving doesn't cause big rises anymore.

[Florina1990]

I think all article is correct. Anytime is colleration between halving and price and this because inflation is reduced every time when halving happening.

[bobo012]

Here's an interesting price prediction that uses an approach based on the halving principle:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/oKh54NhX-Bitcoin-Halving-and-Charting/

The Bitcoin network issues new coins every 10 minutes, but the amount issued is cut in half every 4 years. It started at 50, went to 25 in 2012, and is now at 12.5 new coins every 10 minutes.

This guy's prediction is based on that principle. He takes a logarithmic approach (which is why the chart looks different from what you usually see) and a statistical analysis (which I don't know much about)

What do you guys think?

Bitcoin model is mathematically set so it has to go up. It must go up to support all the people and transactions that are happening, and as well mining equipment that comes online. It has to grow in price or dissapear 

[richardsNY]

all these speculations are correct but why now? it is way too soon to talk about the halving which is not going to happen for another 2 years (in 2020)

People apparently like to calculate forward to see how much value their wealth in Bitcoin will be and whether or not they are potential millionaires by that time. After the block halving in 2020 people will focus on the next halving, because it's the only guaranteed price booster so they take it extremely seriously. If people have some functioning brain cells, they will start with accumulating right now to benefit later on. DCA is the best way to counter the risk of buying short term peaks because you'll end up with the lower overall average anyway.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

What usually happens is that the price increases in the runup to the event, which happened prior to the previous block halving as well.

By the time the halving took place people were wondering why the price wasn't going up, where they completely ignored the fact that the halving was already priced in. It's somewhat similar to buy the rumor sell the news, but since the block halving is fundamentally so important for Bitcoin, there is no sell the news aside from some people securing profits, which happens after every increase. After the block halving we can expect steady growth.

The market only seems to be really affected by the halving once the supply of coins is less on exchanges which is after the halving & can take a while.

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

What cellard has said is partially right. Halving just increases eagerness among the panic new crypto investors who feel like the btc which needs to be mined is very less in number and hence they start panic investments which drives the price higher than usual during the halving year. This increase in interest among the panic guys carry over to the next year and we experience a steep rise in price similar to what happened last year. This rise in price won't sustain for a longer period unless btc acceptance increases in other countries. There are possibly a lot of new buyers who bought btc during Dec 2k17 peak, lost their investment completely and sold their btc for a very lower price.

If you are an investor and only invest your money in btc, you can never earn a decent amount in crypto. Diversifying your portfolio by investing in alts probably will increase your investment price and later converting them to btc will make you earn quite a worthy bucks. Unless you don't invest in a coin, your investment is never secure. A token has high possibilities of ending up being a scam. 

[Oilacris]

Here's an interesting price prediction that uses an approach based on the halving principle:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/oKh54NhX-Bitcoin-Halving-and-Charting/

The Bitcoin network issues new coins every 10 minutes, but the amount issued is cut in half every 4 years. It started at 50, went to 25 in 2012, and is now at 12.5 new coins every 10 minutes.

This guy's prediction is based on that principle. He takes a logarithmic approach (which is why the chart looks different from what you usually see) and a statistical analysis (which I don't know much about)

What do you guys think?

Speculations would really exist where people do make presumptions on what would definitely happen because we have seen on the past halvings on what these events contribute on the further development of bitcoins price.
Its just normal to see or presume that the harder on acquiring or mining bitcoin the more valuable it is. We don't know on whats the future but if we do just based on our common sense we would really heading that way.

[pooya87]

What cellard has said is partially right. Halving just increases eagerness among the panic new crypto investors who feel like the btc which needs to be mined is very less in number and hence they start panic investments which drives the price higher than usual during the halving year.

i wouldn't call it "panic investment" it is a speculation and it exists in every other market too. for example if you speculate that a company is going to expand this year and perform a lot better, you start buying its stock and if enough people have the same speculation the price of that company's shares goes up. same is true about gold, oil, real estate,... and bitcoin.

This increase in interest among the panic guys carry over to the next year and we experience a steep rise in price similar to what happened last year. This rise in price won't sustain for a longer period unless btc acceptance increases in other countries.

the follow up rise that happens after the halving is a slow rise and is because of the adoption is happening while the rate at which the supply was being created reduced. in simple terms there are more buyers than there are sellers after the halving.

If you are an investor and only invest your money in btc, you can never earn a decent amount in crypto.

i don't know what your definition of "decent amount" is but going from $1000 to $20000 aka a 1900% profit in 1 year is more than "decent amount"!

Diversifying your portfolio by investing in alts probably will increase your investment price and later converting them to btc will make you earn quite a worthy bucks.

no it won't unless you are an experienced altcoin trader who knows how to make profit from altcoin pump and dumps. otherwise you are gambling and there is a good chance of losing a lot of money.

[BitcoinNewbie15]

What usually happens is that the price increases in the runup to the event, which happened prior to the previous block halving as well.

By the time the halving took place people were wondering why the price wasn't going up, where they completely ignored the fact that the halving was already priced in. It's somewhat similar to buy the rumor sell the news, but since the block halving is fundamentally so important for Bitcoin, there is no sell the news aside from some people securing profits, which happens after every increase. After the block halving we can expect steady growth.

The market only seems to be really affected by the halving once the supply of coins is less on exchanges which is after the halving & can take a while.

Exactly, usually, the market doesn't react to the halving until 6-12 months have gone by. However, the sample size we have for this is very small. I'd say the hype surrounding the halving alone would be enough to cause a pump when it happens. I've noticed that many of the crypto newbies (2017) don't know what the halving even is. I'm sure once the halving gets closer, more people will start talking about it and once the newbies realize the implications, they will FOMO in like crazy.

[Pursuer]

What usually happens is that the price increases in the runup to the event, which happened prior to the previous block halving as well.

By the time the halving took place people were wondering why the price wasn't going up, where they completely ignored the fact that the halving was already priced in. It's somewhat similar to buy the rumor sell the news, but since the block halving is fundamentally so important for Bitcoin, there is no sell the news aside from some people securing profits, which happens after every increase. After the block halving we can expect steady growth.

The market only seems to be really affected by the halving once the supply of coins is less on exchanges which is after the halving & can take a while.

Exactly, usually, the market doesn't react to the halving until 6-12 months have gone by. However, the sample size we have for this is very small. I'd say the hype surrounding the halving alone would be enough to cause a pump when it happens. I've noticed that many of the crypto newbies (2017) don't know what the halving even is. I'm sure once the halving gets closer, more people will start talking about it and once the newbies realize the implications, they will FOMO in like crazy.

for something like bitcoin that has something major happening for it so often, you can't say that some price change that happens with a 6-12 months difference from a certain event is the result of that event in this case block reward halving. that is just such a huge time frame.

not to mention that the past two times that we had a block reward halving, the rise began about 2 months before the actual date because the hype began by that time and then we had the correction as the halving was near. the real rise was a slow rise that happened a couple of months afterwards though.

[Sherwood_Archer]

What cellard has said is partially right. Halving just increases eagerness among the panic new crypto investors who feel like the btc which needs to be mined is very less in number and hence they start panic investments which drives the price higher than usual during the halving year.

i wouldn't call it "panic investment" it is a speculation and it exists in every other market too. for example if you speculate that a company is going to expand this year and perform a lot better, you start buying its stock and if enough people have the same speculation the price of that company's shares goes up. same is true about gold, oil, real estate,... and bitcoin.

This increase in interest among the panic guys carry over to the next year and we experience a steep rise in price similar to what happened last year. This rise in price won't sustain for a longer period unless btc acceptance increases in other countries.

the follow up rise that happens after the halving is a slow rise and is because of the adoption is happening while the rate at which the supply was being created reduced. in simple terms there are more buyers than there are sellers after the halving.

If you are an investor and only invest your money in btc, you can never earn a decent amount in crypto.

i don't know what your definition of "decent amount" is but going from $1000 to $20000 aka a 1900% profit in 1 year is more than "decent amount"!

Yes, it's exactly the same type of investment we see on the stock exchanges and with currencies. Buy the rumor, sell the fact. Very often do investors pile onto a trade and then jump off either just before or once the news hit because they realize that it's quite crowded. Bitcoin will follow similar patterns of course, but it has the unique growth model that bobo mentioned that keeps it from falling victim to massive dumps. There will always be more buyers looking for dips because they recognize the long-term potential, which is why I thought this chart was quite an interesting analysis.

Oh and yes, profit is always subjective. It depends on what you're comparing it too.

[el kaka22]

Here's an interesting price prediction that uses an approach based on the halving principle:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/oKh54NhX-Bitcoin-Halving-and-Charting/

The Bitcoin network issues new coins every 10 minutes, but the amount issued is cut in half every 4 years. It started at 50, went to 25 in 2012, and is now at 12.5 new coins every 10 minutes.

This guy's prediction is based on that principle. He takes a logarithmic approach (which is why the chart looks different from what you usually see) and a statistical analysis (which I don't know much about)

What do you guys think?

One main thing we should not forget is the miners. Miners spend money on hardware and on electricity and on land and whatever else to mine bitcoins, which means it costs them some sort of money to actually mine those coins, when the halving happens miners will get a half the money they get and with an increased difficulty probably.

With increased difficulty and less bitcoins to mine you will see that miners will not sell their coins for cheap and put them at a high note, after bitcoin prices increase and reach the price miners are fine with selling than it will have hard time to go below that unless some whale gets them, even today when bitcoin goes down insanely it only goes down to miners break even prices, so we need to calculate how much it costs miners to get those coins when halving happens and we can be sure what the bottom is.

[1Referee]

The market only seems to be really affected by the halving once the supply of coins is less on exchanges which is after the halving & can take a while.

Maybe you need to read my post again;

What usually happens is that the price increases in the runup to the event, which happened prior to the previous block halving as well.

After the block halving we can expect steady growth.

If the price has already been bought up significantly prior to the halving, there is no reason why it should be bought up afterwards, which is why I stated that we can expect steady growth. The market will have to go up on its own from there and has nothing else to rely on other than the regular supply and demand metric that over the long term plays out in Bitcoin's favor. In other words, there is no after party.

[aoluain]

Not that we needed a chart to show us that bitcoins value is ever rising but it is clear to see.

With all the threads asking should i do this or should i do that its funny how the Halvening
events are never cited, ifs just too far out ATM its not a consideration, are people not looking
ahead to events which are certain to happen, instead of looking at things which may or may
not happen in the next month.

[Sherwood_Archer]

With all the threads asking should i do this or should i do that its funny how the Halvening
events are never cited, ifs just too far out ATM its not a consideration, are people not looking
ahead to events which are certain to happen, instead of looking at things which may or may
not happen in the next month.

That's what I was thinking too--we should be looking at long term if we are really serious about the value of Bitcoin. This month and that month are just drops in the ocean when you look at a chart like this. Value is more easily determined when you consider it in the grand scheme of things and how big events have higher impact.

In other words, there is no after party.

There's never an after party for major events like this, whether it be in bitcoin, the stock market, or forex. You can see the same kind of run up and excitement followed by a big letdown. Personally I'd be positioning myself to buy about a year before the event and then selling bit by bit in the last few months, to buy again after it happens.

[qazgroup]

What i have been able to fetch from this chart is that after next halving that is coming in 2020 btc will reach 100000 mark and after 2024 halving it will cross 1 million mark, although i think it is possible but then according to this chart these 2 years of 18 and 19 will be bearish and btc will keep going down, i do not agree with this i think soon prices will start increasing like we have seen in the later months of every year.

[timerland]

Halving does tend to bring out bullishness within the market.

In fact the past halving essentially was the end of the 2014-2016 bear market, and the predecessor to the huge 2017 bull market that we had. So I think that halving events are definitely bullish events, both psychologically, and tangibly, as bitcoin rewards become less for the miners.

I don't think that the forecasts shown in that tradingview chart are necessarily going to be realistic, however. It's definitely very hard to see the same amount of growth persist in the next halvings, as the level of adoption and market cap has already drastically increased, and markets are just generally not as volatile anymore.

[Pursuer]

In fact the past halving essentially was the end of the 2014-2016 bear market, and the predecessor to the huge 2017 bull market that we had.

not exactly. the 2014 bear market ended back in 2014 when price reached the bottom of that time meaning $200 levels. this basically happened in early 2015, then we had an accumulation phase and the bull market had already started by October and by November we already had a 100% rise.
block halving happened in July 2016 and by May (3 months before) price was already nearly $500 which is 150% higher than the bottom levels (of course if you take $150 which was an instant as the bottom then it is 233% higher).