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Author Topic: Serious drop in recent BTC hashing power  (Read 2220 times)
Iyeman
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October 12, 2011, 07:12:47 PM
 #1

Last 10   
149047-149057   
12/10/2011
18:59   
927'319.34   
x0.55

http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php


There a huge power / internet outage somewhere?

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ElectricMucus
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October 12, 2011, 07:24:21 PM
 #2

I don't think so. And if you look at the logarithmic chart the drop suddenly looks like peanuts.



This is within expectations because of the price drop on the exchanges and till we get a trend reversal the drop would continue to accelerate.
If I had a noteworthy mining operation I'd shut them off by now as well with the rates I get. Makes sense if the electricity costs make up a substantial part of your regular income as selling freshly mined coins is only profitable for people with low rates.

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Iyeman
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October 12, 2011, 07:27:37 PM
 #3

I don't think so. And if you look at the logarithmic chart the drop suddenly looks like peanuts.



This is within expectations because of the price drop on the exchanges and till we get a trend reversal the drop would continue to accelerate.
If I had a noteworthy mining operation I'd shut them off by now as well with the rates I get. Makes sense if the electricity costs make up a substantial part of your regular income as selling freshly mined coins is only profitable for people with low rates.

If you look im talking about the last 10 blocks.  It has taken 3 hrs to find those 10 blocks. your graph of the last 12 months is nice and all but not very accurate when applied to the past 3 hours.  And it appears the drop is due to Deepbit going down.

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October 12, 2011, 07:33:14 PM
 #4

Well here is the short term graph... the drop has gained momentum recently..



Well if deepbit is down that wouldn't impact the trend, but of course the hashrate would be affected. They'd be up again in a few hours and the rest of the network can handle it.

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October 13, 2011, 12:06:53 PM
 #5

It's a natural reaction to the low price. Difficulty is dropping by about 300,000 tomorrow.

When difficulty gets low enough for $4/btc to be profitable again, hash rates will rise.

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Iyeman
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October 13, 2011, 12:19:12 PM
 #6

It's a natural reaction to the low price. Difficulty is dropping by about 300,000 tomorrow.

When difficulty gets low enough for $4/btc to be profitable again, hash rates will rise.

No it was a natural reaction to Deepbit, BTC Guild, and Slush being DDOS'd for hours... Those 3 pools make up a huge chunck of the networks hashing power.


Now the strange thing is, with the pools still somewhat crippled, blocks found had almost doubled...

Last 10   
149112-149122   
13/10/2011
12:11   
3'634'799.20   
x2.15

And 2/3rds of the hashrate on http://bitcoinwatch.com/ is listed as other...

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SlaveInDebt
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October 13, 2011, 12:24:07 PM
 #7

It's a natural reaction to the low price. Difficulty is dropping by about 300,000 tomorrow.

When difficulty gets low enough for $4/btc to be profitable again, hash rates will rise.

No it was a natural reaction to Deepbit, BTC Guild, and Slush being DDOS'd for hours... Those 3 pools make up a huge chunck of the networks hashing power.


Now the strange thing is, with the pools still somewhat crippled, blocks found had almost doubled...

Last 10   
149112-149122   
13/10/2011
12:11   
3'634'799.20   
x2.15

And 2/3rds of the hashrate on http://bitcoinwatch.com/ is listed as other...


You missed the 2 hour window when no block was found, around 2-4 hours ago.

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dancupid
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October 13, 2011, 01:30:07 PM
 #8

It's a natural reaction to the low price. Difficulty is dropping by about 300,000 tomorrow.

When difficulty gets low enough for $4/btc to be profitable again, hash rates will rise.

No it was a natural reaction to Deepbit, BTC Guild, and Slush being DDOS'd for hours... Those 3 pools make up a huge chunck of the networks hashing power.


Now the strange thing is, with the pools still somewhat crippled, blocks found had almost doubled...

Last 10   
149112-149122   
13/10/2011
12:11   
3'634'799.20   
x2.15

And 2/3rds of the hashrate on http://bitcoinwatch.com/ is listed as other...


You missed the 2 hour window when no block was found, around 2-4 hours ago.

I sold all my bitcoins I had on mt.gox when that happened (just in case) then bought them back as things got back to normal.
molecular
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October 14, 2011, 04:52:49 AM
 #9

It's a natural reaction to the low price. Difficulty is dropping by about 300,000 tomorrow.

When difficulty gets low enough for $4/btc to be profitable again, hash rates will rise.

No it was a natural reaction to Deepbit, BTC Guild, and Slush being DDOS'd for hours... Those 3 pools make up a huge chunck of the networks hashing power.


Now the strange thing is, with the pools still somewhat crippled, blocks found had almost doubled...

Last 10   
149112-149122   
13/10/2011
12:11   
3'634'799.20   
x2.15

And 2/3rds of the hashrate on http://bitcoinwatch.com/ is listed as other...


You missed the 2 hour window when no block was found, around 2-4 hours ago.

I sold all my bitcoins I had on mt.gox when that happened (just in case) then bought them back as things got back to normal.

What? Why? Do you think exchange rate follows hashrate?

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mrb
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October 14, 2011, 06:05:16 AM
 #10

I sold all my bitcoins I had on mt.gox when that happened (just in case) then bought them back as things got back to normal.

What? Why? Do you think exchange rate follows hashrate?

If a majority attack is in progress, dancupid transfers his coins to MtGox, sells them, and a reorg occurs, then his sold coins would "reappear" in his original wallet despite having been sold.
dancupid
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October 14, 2011, 11:38:11 AM
 #11

It's a natural reaction to the low price. Difficulty is dropping by about 300,000 tomorrow.

When difficulty gets low enough for $4/btc to be profitable again, hash rates will rise.

No it was a natural reaction to Deepbit, BTC Guild, and Slush being DDOS'd for hours... Those 3 pools make up a huge chunck of the networks hashing power.


Now the strange thing is, with the pools still somewhat crippled, blocks found had almost doubled...

Last 10   
149112-149122   
13/10/2011
12:11   
3'634'799.20   
x2.15

And 2/3rds of the hashrate on http://bitcoinwatch.com/ is listed as other...


You missed the 2 hour window when no block was found, around 2-4 hours ago.

I sold all my bitcoins I had on mt.gox when that happened (just in case) then bought them back as things got back to normal.

What? Why? Do you think exchange rate follows hashrate?

If zero blocks are produced over several hours then that suggests there is a problem somewhere - I didn't know what the problem was, and wasn't about to risk things as a consequence of my ignorance. I waited 2 hours for the block to move and nothing happened. I simply played it safe out of my own ignorance. I didn;t expect it to be a major problem, but there was a small enough issue to make me react.
If the problem had persisted for a few more hours I suspect many other people would have made the same decision as me and bitcoin prices would have started to crash. Thankfully there was no major issue, and the price was about the same when I bought them back.
molecular
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October 15, 2011, 07:24:55 AM
 #12

What? Why? Do you think exchange rate follows hashrate?

If zero blocks are produced over several hours then that suggests there is a problem somewhere - I didn't know what the problem was, and wasn't about to risk things as a consequence of my ignorance. I waited 2 hours for the block to move and nothing happened. I simply played it safe out of my own ignorance. I didn;t expect it to be a major problem, but there was a small enough issue to make me react.
If the problem had persisted for a few more hours I suspect many other people would have made the same decision as me and bitcoin prices would have started to crash. Thankfully there was no major issue, and the price was about the same when I bought them back.


Allright, thanks for the explanation. Makes sense.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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