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Author Topic: When Will the Bear Market End?  (Read 1727 times)
tosmartak
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August 16, 2018, 10:42:48 AM
 #101

It looks like the bottom has already been touched around the 6k level.  I've read some speculation that this bear market will last a very long time similar to the 2014 crash, but I believe this time is different.  Crypto is much more widely adopted and billions have been invested in mining facilities and equipment.  All these big players will not let the price crash any further.
I doubt that! We would not know though, but from the look of things I would not be surprised if what we are seeing right now could be a bull trap with so many people having loads of expectations and then the bear hits again and then all hope is lost, some who are not strong enough to keep holding starts exiting their positions thinking this is the end and then we hit the level of huge demand again where accumulation starts and then we see participation and the recovery.

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August 16, 2018, 01:57:38 PM
 #102

I'm not sure there's going to be a mini-bull market in 2018, the market has been down for almost four months, and a rally should be possible.
I believe we are not in a "bear market" in some sense. I think we were in a bull market and the prices went up really high however it dropped pretty quickly. Remember what the prices were before December ? Well we are just going steady, there was just this one crazy insane bull run but than it went back down to real numbers. If you  consider it like "bitcoin was once $20k but now it is $6k" than you will be really sad and hopeless.

Nevertheless, if you see it like "bitcoin has been $6k for nearly a year except that one time in December when it skyrocketed and come back" you will feel a lot better because you shift the anomaly to $20k and not the bear market that dropped to $6k.

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August 16, 2018, 03:37:43 PM
 #103

It still seems like people are quite hopeful. They're hopeful that the ETF or Bakkt will save them from a prolonged bear market, and that the worst is over. So they haven't given up hope.

I also believe the worst it is over. Bitcoin cant lose much of value anymore.  But that dont mean that a month after bottom price will be $10k+ and new bull run starts.    After bottom there will be long period of time when there will be huge negativity towards Bitcoin in media that will expect Bitcoin to go to zero.  Although price will be so so stable and no one will lose any money anymore. Bitcoin will be totally unattractive for new people.   Yes old holders will try to accumulate more.   Those are the real dark ages of Bitcoin cycle. Price dont go down, but people are losing hope it will ever go up.

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August 16, 2018, 10:31:14 PM
 #104

I'm not sure there's going to be a mini-bull market in 2018, the market has been down for almost four months, and a rally should be possible.
I believe we are not in a "bear market" in some sense. I think we were in a bull market and the prices went up really high however it dropped pretty quickly. Remember what the prices were before December ? Well we are just going steady, there was just this one crazy insane bull run but than it went back down to real numbers. If you  consider it like "bitcoin was once $20k but now it is $6k" than you will be really sad and hopeless.

Nevertheless, if you see it like "bitcoin has been $6k for nearly a year except that one time in December when it skyrocketed and come back" you will feel a lot better because you shift the anomaly to $20k and not the bear market that dropped to $6k.

We are in a bear market and there is no way around that, a bear market is one where the prices fall and the investors begin to have doubts about their investment, the price went from 20k to 6k so we fit that part of the definition and many people are having doubts about bitcoin and if they are going to recover their money, so we fit the second part of the definition as well.



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Rainbot
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August 16, 2018, 10:42:53 PM
 #105

I'm not sure there's going to be a mini-bull market in 2018, the market has been down for almost four months, and a rally should be possible.
I believe we are not in a "bear market" in some sense. I think we were in a bull market and the prices went up really high however it dropped pretty quickly. Remember what the prices were before December ? Well we are just going steady, there was just this one crazy insane bull run but than it went back down to real numbers. If you  consider it like "bitcoin was once $20k but now it is $6k" than you will be really sad and hopeless.

Nevertheless, if you see it like "bitcoin has been $6k for nearly a year except that one time in December when it skyrocketed and come back" you will feel a lot better because you shift the anomaly to $20k and not the bear market that dropped to $6k.

If you are looking at the whole year chart of bitcoin or crypto market we can easily say that we are still on top compare to the previous year but if you see the chart this year we can say that bear market is the trend this year. $20k price of bitcoin might be a result of price manipulation but many people are trap on that level so this make investors trust fall also. This bear trend will end if there’s a big good news out in the market.

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August 20, 2018, 12:37:27 AM
 #106

End of Bear market is in 2 - 28 months (2 years + 4 months, December 2020).
Trust me, i am a doctor.

Even if you count start of the bull run as the end of bear market I think that 28 months limit is a bit to pessimistic.  For the bottom I would put latest possible date at the end of 2019. But it should happen way before that.

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August 20, 2018, 01:11:19 AM
 #107

I am a Hodler, I have waited for straight 8 difficult months to see the bulls return, we were having some semblance to a boom in the last 2 weeks, now market cap is struggling with 250 Billion $. How long are we going to wait?

No one could really tell will it end as Bitcoin price is really unpredictable but hopefully it will start before this month would end as if history will repeat itself in which the Bitcoin start to boom after the Aug 1 fork event. Therefore we will just wait and see until this year would end because if the Bitcoin price will not rise again then expect many will leave this investment by next year.

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August 21, 2018, 09:26:14 AM
 #108

It still seems like people are quite hopeful. They're hopeful that the ETF or Bakkt will save them from a prolonged bear market, and that the worst is over. So they haven't given up hope.

I also believe the worst it is over. Bitcoin cant lose much of value anymore.  But that dont mean that a month after bottom price will be $10k+ and new bull run starts.    After bottom there will be long period of time when there will be huge negativity towards Bitcoin in media that will expect Bitcoin to go to zero.  Although price will be so so stable and no one will lose any money anymore. Bitcoin will be totally unattractive for new people.   Yes old holders will try to accumulate more.   Those are the real dark ages of Bitcoin cycle. Price dont go down, but people are losing hope it will ever go up.
That is very nice, I can see a lot of people are too much confident about bitcoin price that it is not going to decrease anymore. They think that bitcoin price is already touched its bottom and therefore they do not expect any more decreasing in bitcoin price. I think that such news will increase the confident level of the investors.
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August 21, 2018, 11:15:40 AM
 #109

...
I also believe the worst it is over. Bitcoin cant lose much of value anymore. 
...

After previous Bitcoin bubbles the BTC price always retraced roughly
90 % from the all-time high. If we assume that the price will develop
in the same way this time, we will see BTC go down to  ~1950 $ / BTC.

Since the ATH not even a year has passed. When BTC peaked
at ~1300 $ / BTC after the MtGox bubble, the bear market lasted several years!
I think you are mistaken if you think that the worst is over yet. I suspect
a bear market of at least 1-2 more years until the next BTC block reward halving.



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August 21, 2018, 02:16:06 PM
 #110

I am a Hodler, I have waited for straight 8 difficult months to see the bulls return, we were having some semblance to a boom in the last 2 weeks, now market cap is struggling with 250 Billion $. How long are we going to wait?

No one could really tell will it end as Bitcoin price is really unpredictable but hopefully it will start before this month would end as if history will repeat itself in which the Bitcoin start to boom after the Aug 1 fork event. Therefore we will just wait and see until this year would end because if the Bitcoin price will not rise again then expect many will leave this investment by next year.
I agree no one can speculate what will be the market price this year. Ever since bitcoin price is unpredictable and we cannot tell how long we can wait when this bear market could ends. Still, many users willingly can wait to rise again.

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August 25, 2018, 04:55:50 PM
 #111

...
I also believe the worst it is over. Bitcoin cant lose much of value anymore. 
...

After previous Bitcoin bubbles the BTC price always retraced roughly
90 % from the all-time high. If we assume that the price will develop
in the same way this time, we will see BTC go down to  ~1950 $ / BTC.

Since the ATH not even a year has passed. When BTC peaked
at ~1300 $ / BTC after the MtGox bubble, the bear market lasted several years!
I think you are mistaken if you think that the worst is over yet. I suspect
a bear market of at least 1-2 more years until the next BTC block reward halving.

When will bottom happen on your opinion?


I give really tiny chance that bottom would be under $2000. Almost none. Bottom under $4000 is way way more likely. But  I did not put much effort in finding that, because I am not interested in prices, but I am interested in times when something happens.  

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August 25, 2018, 06:57:41 PM
 #112

...
I also believe the worst it is over. Bitcoin cant lose much of value anymore. 
...

After previous Bitcoin bubbles the BTC price always retraced roughly
90 % from the all-time high. If we assume that the price will develop
in the same way this time, we will see BTC go down to  ~1950 $ / BTC.

After April 2013, we only dropped 81% from the high. Tongue

We also used to talk about 2012 as a bubble back in the old days. We dropped 50% from the highs when it crashed.

Anyway, it really depends if this is a shorter term consolidation like mid 2012 or mid 2013, or a longer term bear market like 2014. The reality is that none of the bubbles will ever look quite the same as one another. We should be prepared for something different.

I suspect
a bear market of at least 1-2 more years until the next BTC block reward halving.

A multi-year bear market is definitely possible.

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August 25, 2018, 09:23:14 PM
 #113

The bearish trend isn't just new to us,  we've been like this before and I think we should never be surprised when we experiencing like this. The market is very unpredictable, thus, we never knew when it back into bullish trend again.  It is just a hope to see it in the 4th quarter same thing happen last year.

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August 25, 2018, 10:00:31 PM
 #114

The bearish trend isn't just new to us,  we've been like this before and I think we should never be surprised when we experiencing like this. The market is very unpredictable, thus, we never knew when it back into bullish trend again.  It is just a hope to see it in the 4th quarter same thing happen last year.
That is also considered a good tactic for the moment. Not too hasty and impatient. Let's calm down and solve each one. Wait for the right time to get back the capital. When there is enough surplus then the market is not the problem too difficult.

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August 27, 2018, 06:51:19 AM
 #115

Lets hope that this month or next month will be the end of bear market volume and start for a new bull run market until the end of this year. Its been a few months already when the bear market start so maybe this coming months will bull market already.
People still have good expectation from bitcoin price, they are expecting that very soon bitcoin price is going to reach to 20k, and therefore they are still trying to hold their bitcoin and not sell in such a low price.

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August 27, 2018, 07:00:41 AM
 #116

I think the bear market condition will stop when there is bad news, usually the price will fall very quickly because there are so many traders who panic and sell their assets at very cheap prices.

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August 27, 2018, 07:05:47 AM
 #117


Like they say, it may happen when no one expect it to happen so its possible that it may happen before the year ends of perhaps in December of next year. But there were already speculation and news of some tokens about thier development which can make them explode in q4 of this year. If we only speculate bitcoin it may took months and month but for some tokens who are ready to release their product it could already be mooning before the year end.

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August 27, 2018, 11:55:28 AM
 #118

it looks like you should be able to be more patient because of the cryptocurrency price movements no one can predict so it's better to stay patient and wait for the price to rise again.

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August 28, 2018, 05:24:06 AM
 #119

I think the bear market condition will stop when there is bad news, usually the price will fall very quickly because there are so many traders who panic and sell their assets at very cheap prices.
Bad news are just more like an excuse to me for the whales to manipulate the market the more, but contrary to what you said, I do not see how bad news can put a halt to a bear trend. With or without news, the market was meant to take such a hit after the huge bullish activity that happened towards the end of last year and this is just the aftermath since it could not be sustained.

Do not forget however that the same way we have it up there, the same way we are going to have it down with some missing the dip instead of buying in for the long term. No one knows when it will end, we only can know based on what the chart tells us which for now still screams bear alert.

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August 28, 2018, 06:58:29 AM
 #120

it still difficult to predict when the bear market end and we don't know how to the time. but we can wait for the market so we can buy many coins before the coin price is moves to the higher price. maybe in the next week, the bear market will end or in the next months and it is better for us to get prepared for anything that can happen in the crypto market.

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