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Author Topic: $3.20 is the new $3.68  (Read 5103 times)
Bitcoin Oz
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October 15, 2011, 08:27:23 PM
 #21

The thing that killed bitcoin is this shitty forum.

That and having a mortgage fraudster as official spokesperson.

No legitimate company will touch bitcoin with a 50 foot barge pole.

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October 15, 2011, 09:27:44 PM
 #22

It will be over when Mt. Gox and Tradehill give up, or go bust.
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October 15, 2011, 09:28:32 PM
 #23

The thing that killed bitcoin is this shitty forum.

That and having a mortgage fraudster as official spokesperson.

No legitimate company will touch bitcoin with a 50 foot barge pole.
That was enough to kill bitcoin? Then bitcoin wasn't such a great thing
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October 15, 2011, 11:10:09 PM
 #24

It will be over when Mt. Gox and Tradehill give up, or go bust.

I would not worry to much about either of those.  They should be fairly simple and low-cost to operate, at least when the initial development is worked through.  I would be more concerned about them being shut down.

I have always assumed that the larger exchanges work closely with the various financial and governmental agencies to do monitoring and such and have done so since early into their lives.  I may be wrong, but I'd rather err on the side of caution...or would if it mattered very much in my case.  If these larger exchanges were shut down they would be replaced by players who are much more difficult to manage.  So I expect that they will have relatively good staying power.

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October 15, 2011, 11:45:54 PM
 #25

It will be over when Mt. Gox and Tradehill give up, or go bust.

Quite on the contrary. If they shut down, people will search for ways to spend their bitcoins, you know, trade and buy stuff with them,  and I suspect it would spur a real bitcoin economy. Imagine miners would no longer be able to cash their bitcoins for dollars, I think that would do wonders for bitcoin.

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October 15, 2011, 11:58:02 PM
 #26

No legitimate company will touch bitcoin with a 50 foot barge pole.
what is legitimate company and why do we need one? please explain

It will be over when Mt. Gox and Tradehill give up, or go bust.
Twice as much damage would cause if SR go bust...

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October 16, 2011, 11:47:40 AM
 #27

[...]
I do tend to snap up some BTC on the exchanges when I want to donate right away to some effort.
because exchanging is so simple and cheap nobody needs to hold coins to use them....

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October 16, 2011, 01:57:42 PM
 #28


I do tend to snap up some BTC on the exchanges when I want to donate right away to some effort.



That's nice and all, but there's a pretty big price to pay just to not use more conventional means to make donations.  If I use $100 today to buy bitcoins and send them off to some charity there's a pretty good chance that by the time they convert the donation back to cash they'll have $90/$80/$70/$60/$50 to spend.  That's a pretty shitty deal.
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October 16, 2011, 04:37:22 PM
 #29

I do tend to snap up some BTC on the exchanges when I want to donate right away to some effort.

That's nice and all, but there's a pretty big price to pay just to not use more conventional means to make donations.  If I use $100 today to buy bitcoins and send them off to some charity there's a pretty good chance that by the time they convert the donation back to cash they'll have $90/$80/$70/$60/$50 to spend.  That's a pretty shitty deal.

'More convential means' are not available when our minders take a dis-liking to a certain project (e.g., Wikileaks), and even in strong secular bear market one loses very little other than exchange fees, and nearly half the time they may still come out marginally ahead.

Your FUD might be more effective if you:  a) pay a little more attention to the thread, and b) make more valid points generally.


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October 16, 2011, 04:48:24 PM
 #30

I do tend to snap up some BTC on the exchanges when I want to donate right away to some effort.

That's nice and all, but there's a pretty big price to pay just to not use more conventional means to make donations.  If I use $100 today to buy bitcoins and send them off to some charity there's a pretty good chance that by the time they convert the donation back to cash they'll have $90/$80/$70/$60/$50 to spend.  That's a pretty shitty deal.

'More convential means' are not available when our minders take a dis-liking to a certain project (e.g., Wikileaks), and even in strong secular bear market one loses very little other than exchange fees, and nearly half the time they may still come out marginally ahead.

Your FUD might be more effective if you:  a) pay a little more attention to the thread, and b) make more valid points generally.



I don't see how my point isn't valid.  For there to be reasonable chance for purchasing power to hold between when you buy bitcoins and when your charity cashes them out to pay for things two things would need to hold: (1) the transaction would need to happen very quickly, and (2) the volume would need to be relatively small.

For the vast majority of people interested in making donations via bitcoin the whole process of buying them, sending them off to the charity, and the charity cashing them out isn't going be fluid enough to mitigate the very high chance that the money taken out in the end will be significantly less than what was put in.  I don't think you need to look any further than the last 4 months to see that the odds are against retaining the original purchasing power.  Some savvy people who are quick on the draw or lucky or both might be able to retain the original purchasing power or even increase the final purchasing power of their donation, but there are too many variables against that coming out true for the vast majority of cases.

I get that for a very small number of cases bitcoin is the only way transfer purchasing power.  Sadly, as I've pointed out, compared to conventional means of donating there's a fairly high premium to make that donation.  Make it if you want to.  I'm just saying that odds are that a lot of purchasing power is going to get lost along the way.

My intention isn't to spread FUD.  I'm just calling it as I see it.
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October 16, 2011, 05:45:11 PM
 #31


I don't see how my point isn't valid.  For there to be reasonable chance for purchasing power to hold between when you buy bitcoins and when your charity cashes them out to pay for things two things would need to hold: (1) the transaction would need to happen very quickly, and (2) the volume would need to be relatively small.

For the vast majority of people interested in making donations via bitcoin the whole process of buying them, sending them off to the charity, and the charity cashing them out isn't going be fluid enough to mitigate the very high chance that the money taken out in the end will be significantly less than what was put in.  I don't think you need to look any further than the last 4 months to see that the odds are against retaining the original purchasing power.  Some savvy people who are quick on the draw or lucky or both might be able to retain the original purchasing power or even increase the final purchasing power of their donation, but there are too many variables against that coming out true for the vast majority of cases.

I get that for a very small number of cases bitcoin is the only way transfer purchasing power.  Sadly, as I've pointed out, compared to conventional means of donating there's a fairly high premium to make that donation.  Make it if you want to.  I'm just saying that odds are that a lot of purchasing power is going to get lost along the way.

My intention isn't to spread FUD.  I'm just calling it as I see it.

I will grant you that for someone starting 'cold' it is not very practical to use Bitcoin as a means of making donations (though a reasonably savvy person, and especially one who was not opposed to using a Dwolla/Paxum-like solution or already had such an account could do it readily.)  But you responded to someone who clearly already had an account at and exchange and could easily convert at will and could hold funds in USD or in BTC at his discretion.

I will also grant you that holding an account at an exchange is not the safest thing to do, and not for everyone.  So far I have not been burnt here, but I am careful in initial research and in ongoing use.

But the argument that significant losses are even likely occur due to the falling price is non-valid.  If the recipient is not cashing out quickly, that is their problem and not a difficult one to solve.  With code if need be, and that would make more sense when smaller donations are trickling in.

It would be nice it one did not need to be somewhat nimble to avoid losing value in playing with Bitcoin, that that is the current shape of things.  As I've said earlier, I expect that at some point a floor will set in based on what usefulness Bitcoin has and how nimble what remains of the user base becomes.  The floor may have a tilt one way or another due to utilization and inflation.  And like any market, will have some amount of volatility.


proudhon
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October 16, 2011, 05:50:54 PM
 #32

In any event, hope nobody bought bitcoins to make a donation within the last hour...
pennytrader
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October 16, 2011, 06:08:17 PM
 #33

I saw another "buying opportunity" for long-term bulls (or bagholders)...

please donate to 1P3m2resGCP2o2sFX324DP1mfqHgGPA8BL
tvbcof
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October 16, 2011, 06:16:39 PM
 #34

I saw another "buying opportunity" for long-term bulls (or bagholders)...

I've had a buy in at 3.23 for some time now.  I'm going to let it stand.  I am still trying to get my 'bag' up to a certain nice round number which makes the math easier (having overshot my original bag size in this bear market.)

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October 16, 2011, 06:20:07 PM
 #35

In any event, hope nobody bought bitcoins to make a donation within the last hour...

Happily no.  But I also missed the run-up from $5 to $7 a few weeks ago.

It's perhaps conceptually difficult for people, but as the speed of transactions increases, the average impact in a bear (or bull) market approaches zero.  And Bitcoin retains some niceties in terms of speed and cost of execution.

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October 16, 2011, 10:37:00 PM
 #36

The thing that killed bitcoin is this shitty forum.

That and having a mortgage fraudster as official spokesperson.

No legitimate company will touch bitcoin with a 50 foot barge pole.

The only thing that has died is a mis-perception of what Bitcoin is and what it means.

It is the people's money, not some bourgeoisie stand-in for the Dollar...

Bitcoin sure is the people's money.  The people who got into mining early on cents per bitcoin.  We're replacing one aristocracy with another.

Do not send bitcoins to me: 16b8s7pBJ9rUmsExNW25qD5VUqVqRPZuXu
100% solar powered bitcoin generation
grod
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October 16, 2011, 11:10:39 PM
 #37

Wanna get in on another pyramid?  RUC just started up ( see the thread in the alt cryptocurrencies ).  So far I'm batting 1000 hopping on every alternative currency early, trading for BTC early and cashing out to $ early.  Granted, this one is already 6000 blocks into existing and the exchange is up before a client is available but there is already more hashing power on that network than some of the 'top 10' BTC pools.

That's the unforseen danger to bitcoin.  75% of us got in at the bottom of the pyramid and have zero vested interest in making the "early adopters" multi-gajillionares.  If a more lucrative opportunity comes along we stop providing security for the current chain and hop on that one.  It won't take millions of dollars to torpedo bitcoin, a few hundred K providing a market for one of the alts will have enough mining power switch to make a 51% possible.  Especially if BTC prices are already soft.
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October 17, 2011, 01:56:04 AM
 #38

I saw another "buying opportunity" for long-term bulls (or bagholders)...

I've had a buy in at 3.23 for some time now.  I'm going to let it stand.  I am still trying to get my 'bag' up to a certain nice round number which makes the math easier (having overshot my original bag size in this bear market.)


Just for the record, I pussied out.  I split the aforementioned target and bought half of it in right away.  My larger and lower ones stand unmolested.

grod
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October 17, 2011, 01:57:36 AM
 #39


Just for the record, I pussied out.  I split the aforementioned target and bought half of it in right away.  My larger and lower ones stand unmolested.

Dead cat bounce on tue/wed should make you a few coins to offset your higher losses.  Ball of steel man, balls of steel.  But not a bad move so long as you intend to close at least some of that position.
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October 17, 2011, 02:18:19 AM
 #40


Just for the record, I pussied out.  I split the aforementioned target and bought half of it in right away.  My larger and lower ones stand unmolested.

Dead cat bounce on tue/wed should make you a few coins to offset your higher losses.  Ball of steel man, balls of steel.  But not a bad move so long as you intend to close at least some of that position.


Nah.  I kissed the money goodbye already.  I started in in the $16 range (on the way down) so my losses are way more significant than I could hope to recoup by winning a few coins here and there.  At this point it's a long term (and long odds) bet that over time the blockchain will end up having some value, and if so, I will have gotten a chunk of it before it while it is lawful to do so.

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