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Author Topic: $3.20 is the new $3.68  (Read 5105 times)
grod
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October 17, 2011, 02:39:47 AM
 #41

Nah.  I kissed the money goodbye already.  I started in in the $16 range (on the way down) so my losses are way more significant than I could hope to recoup by winning a few coins here and there.  At this point it's a long term (and long odds) bet that over time the blockchain will end up having some value, and if so, I will have gotten a chunk of it before it while it is lawful to do so.


This makes no sense.  Dumping and buying lower can absolutely dig you out of that hole.  Don't do the entire position at once, of course.  If you kissed the money goodbye this could be your opportunity to learn to trade on the cheap.  At the very least it might give you the instincts to avoid doing the same in the future, with amounts of money that matter.

If you buy at 16, sell at 3 and buy back in at 1 you'll have 3x as many coins playing the long odds.  I'm not saying that WILL happen, but why not trade a portion of your position?
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October 17, 2011, 03:02:48 AM
 #42

Nah.  I kissed the money goodbye already.  I started in in the $16 range (on the way down) so my losses are way more significant than I could hope to recoup by winning a few coins here and there.  At this point it's a long term (and long odds) bet that over time the blockchain will end up having some value, and if so, I will have gotten a chunk of it before it while it is lawful to do so.


This makes no sense.  Dumping and buying lower can absolutely dig you out of that hole.  Don't do the entire position at once, of course.  If you kissed the money goodbye this could be your opportunity to learn to trade on the cheap.  At the very least it might give you the instincts to avoid doing the same in the future, with amounts of money that matter.

If you buy at 16, sell at 3 and buy back in at 1 you'll have 3x as many coins playing the long odds.  I'm not saying that WILL happen, but why not trade a portion of your position?


I am no trader.  I am quite certain that I would lose my ass so fast that it wouldn't be funny if I got into trading, and it would irk me to be paying the commissions to boot.  I don't particularly want to learn to trade even if it were possible that I could (unless I got into trying to program trading bots for the fun and challenge of it.)  I've had generally good luck and a lot less stress just buying something I think is undervalued and sitting on it, but by nature I tend to look at least several years out.

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October 17, 2011, 03:22:23 AM
 #43

Nah.  I kissed the money goodbye already.  I started in in the $16 range (on the way down) so my losses are way more significant than I could hope to recoup by winning a few coins here and there.  At this point it's a long term (and long odds) bet that over time the blockchain will end up having some value, and if so, I will have gotten a chunk of it before it while it is lawful to do so.


This makes no sense.  Dumping and buying lower can absolutely dig you out of that hole.  Don't do the entire position at once, of course.  If you kissed the money goodbye this could be your opportunity to learn to trade on the cheap.  At the very least it might give you the instincts to avoid doing the same in the future, with amounts of money that matter.

If you buy at 16, sell at 3 and buy back in at 1 you'll have 3x as many coins playing the long odds.  I'm not saying that WILL happen, but why not trade a portion of your position?


I am no trader.  I am quite certain that I would lose my ass so fast that it wouldn't be funny if I got into trading, and it would irk me to be paying the commissions to boot.  I don't particularly want to learn to trade even if it were possible that I could (unless I got into trying to program trading bots for the fun and challenge of it.)  I've had generally good luck and a lot less stress just buying something I think is undervalued and sitting on it, but by nature I tend to look at least several years out.


Well, programming trading bots is very fun, so you could do that.  Also why wouldn't you care about your investment into bitcoin?  I'd try to protect it if it were a big one.  You won't lose too much of your ass if you are careful with stop losses.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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October 17, 2011, 03:57:25 AM
 #44


Well, programming trading bots is very fun, so you could do that.  Also why wouldn't you care about your investment into bitcoin?  I'd try to protect it if it were a big one.  You won't lose too much of your ass if you are careful with stop losses.

Actually I was just looking into FPGA mining with an eye toward protecting my investment, and it seems like an interesting science worth knowing something about one way or another.  My instinct had been to hold off to see what popped up in the ASIC realm, but the deterioration of the markets must have slowed any progress in that direction considerably.

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October 17, 2011, 05:06:00 AM
 #45

Massive dump of bitcoins to $3.12 and a weak rebound to $3.20.  Is this it?  Are early adopters who didn't sell off months ago, now in sell off mode?  No recently announced hacks, no bad news, so it seems someone with a lot of bitcoins is exiting the market.

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grod
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October 17, 2011, 05:10:08 AM
 #46

Not early adopterS, early adopter.  Only one can cash out, the others must hold the bag until the recovery many months later.  One teen with 50k coins can take us to parity with the dollar.  Oh, and rebuild his position on coins afterward, too.

Oh, closure of the #3? #4? btc exchange counts as bad news.  They couldn't function on tiny $/day volume.

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October 17, 2011, 05:24:23 AM
 #47

Not early adopterS, early adopter.  Only one can cash out, the others must hold the bag until the recovery many months later.  One teen with 50k coins can take us to parity with the dollar.  Oh, and rebuild his position on coins afterward, too.

Oh, closure of the #3? #4? btc exchange counts as bad news.  They couldn't function on tiny $/day volume.

MtGox has 90% of the market anyway, with TradeHill making up most of the rest.  I don't really see an exchange with maybe 1% market share closing as being particularly bad news.

The last acknowledged exchange hack was several weeks ago of a minor exchange.  A few thousand bitcoins at most. 

If MtGox has financial problems then we can stick a fork into bitcoin and declare it done.  Without MtGox people would have extreme difficulty in converting their bitcoins into cash (and vice versa), and the price would collapse to cents per bitcoin overnight.

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October 17, 2011, 05:45:03 AM
 #48

Massive dump of bitcoins to $3.12 and a weak rebound to $3.20.  Is this it?  Are early adopters who didn't sell off months ago, now in sell off mode?  No recently announced hacks, no bad news, so it seems someone with a lot of bitcoins is exiting the market.

no bad news . . . more or less . . .

 just today exchb announced they are closing , exchb was one of the 3 most important exchanges and one of the most trusted . . . not exactly a good news . . . add to this all the FUD posted on this forum against mtgox . . .

grod
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October 17, 2011, 06:15:42 AM
 #49

Title changed to remain relevant.

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October 17, 2011, 09:03:49 AM
 #50

Time to change the title again  Shocked

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October 17, 2011, 09:11:17 AM
 #51

Time to change the title again  Shocked

Tradehill actually broke the $3.00 barrier briefly.  I went ahead and filled my 'round number' quota just so I didn't have to worry about it and could do my deep storage work.  Time will tell if I'm happy that I kept some powder dry this weekend or no I guess.  Anyway, bed time.

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October 17, 2011, 09:20:23 AM
 #52

Nah.  I kissed the money goodbye already.  I started in in the $16 range (on the way down) so my losses are way more significant than I could hope to recoup by winning a few coins here and there.  At this point it's a long term (and long odds) bet that over time the blockchain will end up having some value, and if so, I will have gotten a chunk of it before it while it is lawful to do so.


This makes no sense.  Dumping and buying lower can absolutely dig you out of that hole.  Don't do the entire position at once, of course.  If you kissed the money goodbye this could be your opportunity to learn to trade on the cheap.  At the very least it might give you the instincts to avoid doing the same in the future, with amounts of money that matter.

If you buy at 16, sell at 3 and buy back in at 1 you'll have 3x as many coins playing the long odds.  I'm not saying that WILL happen, but why not trade a portion of your position?


I'm convinced that the widespread adoption of that strategy is a large part of why the price has collapsed and will continue to do so.
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October 17, 2011, 09:43:26 AM
 #53

Can i safely assume we are in the 'paradigm shift' phase of the bubble disillusion graph?

Here's a new paradigm for the comming time.
BC < BC
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October 17, 2011, 10:32:39 AM
 #54

Can i safely assume we are in the 'paradigm shift' phase of the bubble disillusion graph?

For those not familiar with it:



We're currently at Capitulation.  I speculate wildly that Despair starts somewhere under $0.50, but anyone who calls a bottom with any kind of authority at this stage will likely eat their words.

Quote
($3.80 / $3.20 / $whatever) is the new ($whatever)

Heh, I've heard that one all the way down, but usually it lasts at least a few days.

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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October 17, 2011, 10:36:40 AM
 #55

Can i safely assume we are in the 'paradigm shift' phase of the bubble disillusion graph?

For those not familiar with it:



We're currently at Capitulation.  I speculate wildly that Despair starts somewhere under $0.50, but anyone who calls a bottom with any kind of authority at this stage will likely eat their words.


Damn, i missed Fear.
Now waiting for Despair.
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October 17, 2011, 10:40:13 AM
 #56

2.78 atm.
Revalin
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October 17, 2011, 10:48:28 AM
 #57

Damn, i missed Fear.

Damn, I missed the knife.  Smiley

... but there will always be another.

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
dark_silverstar
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October 17, 2011, 11:14:45 AM
 #58

going down to 2.34  Tongue
Revalin
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October 17, 2011, 11:32:05 AM
 #59

LOL that was so two hours ago.  Smiley

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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October 17, 2011, 12:01:07 PM
 #60

going down to 2.34  Tongue

I can spot a 2.36 in the MtGox log. Meet you at 50c Smiley

{"date":1318845188,"price":"2.36002","amount":"0.07","price_int":"236002","amount_int":"7000000",
"tid":"1318845188497759","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},
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