Detect the end of a bubble?

[spyro]

Everyone has their secrets.

Without giving too much away, how do YOU  detect the end of a bubble?

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[jonanon]

There is no way to 'detect the end of a bubble'. One can make predictions and use informed guesswork to improve their chances, but that's about it 

[5thStreetResearch]

the end? when whatever you held onto is now worthless

[spyro]

I agree, you can't hold and win in this game

[spyro]

Has holding actually paid off for anyone yet?

[Bit_Happy]

Has holding actually paid off for anyone yet?

Yes, not me, but some people got wealthy by holding (or rediscovering) a large number of BTC.

The lowest price BTC sold for in the early days was less than $0.004 (yes, ~1/3 of a penny each), there is still a thread about that here somewhere. Quite a few people were able to buy for ~5 cents and/or mine large amounts easily. Now....

Actually holding on until those same coins are worth millions isn't easy. Plenty of people thought $1 was really high, sold, and were shocked to see it go up to ~$32 in about 2 months. Then Gox melted down (twice) and everything got dark and Bearish for many months....

[greenalliancegroup]

It should be end of the bubble right now once GOX dies or does something. The support line is 550-600$. If you look at the many businesses and infrastructure getting put into place. We'll see it go up from there. This is the time to stock up on BTCs and long the position. The value of anything lies in 3 things. People Process and Product.

A lot of people are getting into BTC because the value it holds and potential to become a delivery instrument of the future. The people in the BTC ecosystem tend to be good and vocal about Bitcoins. A passion behind it. While businesses see a profit to potential make more revenue.

Process which is one of the most important parts of any business or organization. The process is getting infrastructure put in place to stabilize the value of BTC. ATMs, hopefully 1 day crypto bank, and merchants accepting them will help lay the foundation and grounds of BTC to be used for trade and commerce.

Last is product. The Product is BTC. BTC has value that a lot of people forget about it. With MSB business and Banks. A lot of big businesses are getting charge exorbitant amounts of money to do everyday transaction or multinational transaction. It a trillion dollar industry. Once businesses leaders see the stability of the BTC. You'll see a lot more transaction conducted. The fact is countries like China and Russia make it very difficult to conduct business outside of there borders without governmental approve. Let say your expat living in that country and want to transfer the amount back to USD. Your going to have a hell of a time.The fact is no country likes transferring monies out of there country.

With BTC holders who own a lot more than us. They are not going to let BTC end up in shambles.

Right now the market is in panic because GOX pulling all this crap. If the exchange died out or becomes able to withdraw some funds to its customers you'll see BTC skyrocket back to 700$-800$ point.

Yes at the end of the day is what people think its worth. Although there is underlining value to it. Stocks and mutual funds are exactly similar to BTCs. But with stocks and mutual funds. Big Business has controlled it.

The time to really cash out in BTC is when big business gets involved. The fact is you can't beat them because of there spending power. They are able to change the direction of BTC at anytime.