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Author Topic: [Discussion]How to decentralize the price of the bitcoin? Self-moderated.  (Read 388 times)
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Heisenberg_Hunter
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August 11, 2018, 01:43:08 PM
 #41

As the quote reads "Bitcoin market is highly speculative and largely unregulated. Invest in them which you can afford to lose". This wasn't the one satoshi thought and investing in btc ain't an investment. Does anyone consider having money in their fiat raise in future? For instance, one has $10000 this year and has kept them in secret shelf for 10 years. Once after 10 yrs, this would be the same $10000. Bitcoin is meant to be used as a payment tool and a digital alternative to the fiat money rather than investing and Holding them for future profits. Bitcoin was not created to be used as an alternative to Gold/Silver which would appreciate in future. Limitation in total supply is another factor which is why Bitcoin is being compared to Gold.

Hence there should be adequate adoption of btc in the daily lives of people. For this to happen there needs to be a large portion of the coins to be circulated among the people rather than whales holding them in wallets. Moreover the cryptocurrency has become more of a holding stock rather than a using them as a digital money.

Above all, mining also consumes huge volume of electricity and money and price of the coin is also somehow based on the value to create a new one. Hence unless there isn't a larger adoption by the population,global acceptance and holders holding the btc, we won't see the speculation to end and the price will pump and dump always. There may be a larger adoption and global acceptance in future, but holders liquidating their btc would never happen and hence the rich gets richer. Also, btc is becoming more of a centralized currency with bitmain dominating the mining part. These doesn't seem to be a good road for btc dominating the fiat money.

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August 11, 2018, 02:04:45 PM
 #42

Bitcoin was not created to be used as an alternative to Gold/Silver which would appreciate in future. Limitation in total supply is another factor which is why Bitcoin is being compared to Gold.

Gold and silver were both originally used as currency. I think that the similarity with the limited supply and the mining analogy show that it was very much the intention to have a deflationary money. You have to remember the context of the time Bitcoin was created. It was the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis which led to central banks running huge QE programs where peoples wealth held in fiat currencies was deliberately devalued by government policy. That can't happen in a decentralised system with a finite supply. That's exactly why people that understand that part of Bitcoin would rather store their wealth in it.

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August 11, 2018, 06:01:31 PM
 #43

Gold and silver were both originally used as currency. I think that the similarity with the limited supply and the mining analogy show that it was very much the intention to have a deflationary money. You have to remember the context of the time Bitcoin was created. It was the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis which led to central banks running huge QE programs where peoples wealth held in fiat currencies was deliberately devalued by government policy. That can't happen in a decentralised system with a finite supply. That's exactly why people that understand that part of Bitcoin would rather store their wealth in it.
I agree with your statement. As to what satoshi mentioned in his paper, his main intention was to use the electronic transaction without a third party and to prevent the double spending problem which was prevailing in the earlier predecessor of bitcoin (hashcash and b-money). He has never discussed about the inflation, though he has stated that his main goal was to create a immutable currency. He might have thought that the capped supply could prevent inflation in the value and a stable price would be reached. But since miners receive the coins every 10 minutes, this speculative value won't reach a stable price soon.

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August 12, 2018, 08:45:12 AM
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 #44

As to what satoshi mentioned in his paper, his main intention was to use the electronic transaction without a third party and to prevent the double spending problem which was prevailing in the earlier predecessor of bitcoin (hashcash and b-money).

Not to be pedantic here but you missed the most important word out.

Quote from: Satoshi link=https://nakamotoinstitute.org/bitcoin/#selection-61.4-61.211
What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party.

Transactions not having to trust a third party and being irreversible is part of it. My opinion here is that although it isn't explicitly stated in the white paper he went much further and didn't want to trust the creation of money supply to a third party either. Otherwise, we could have ended up with something like Tether. A payment system on its own doesn't require its own currency, but it does require trust in the issuers of whatever currency is used.


He has never discussed about the inflation, though he has stated that his main goal was to create a immutable currency. He might have thought that the capped supply could prevent inflation in the value and a stable price would be reached. But since miners receive the coins every 10 minutes, this speculative value won't reach a stable price soon.

He could have just as easily set a constant block reward of 50 BTC forever. This is what makes me think most that he had the intention of making Bitcoin a digital gold. There is a finite amount of gold below ground and as it is mined the easiest to extract gold comes in to supply and as time goes by it gets ever more difficult to mine the gold that is left.

It's just a personal opinion but everything about the design tells me this was always the intention. The words in the genesis block  “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”. It wasn't that banks were going to fail and depositors would lose money, it was that governments were devaluing our money to bail them out. We all paid for those bailouts.

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August 15, 2018, 11:33:20 PM
 #45

The cost to mine 1 btc depends on the region

Electricity costs (low cost near big dams in China), government subsidies (like Venezuela), hardware costs also depends on the region...
This image summary it

Why would someone pay more for a btc than the exchange price?

https://www.investopedia.com/news/how-much-does-it-cost-mine-bitcoin-around-world/N

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August 16, 2018, 07:20:28 AM
 #46

Why would someone pay more for a btc than the exchange price?

Why the centralized exchange price has to be determinant for the overall price of the bitcoin?
If you want an non-speculative price then ALL the deals have to go trough exchange which cannot really happen here because people will most likely trade p2p as that's the idea behind the bitcoin, not trough 3rd party + paying extra fees and the KYC s#it.
Same with the banks, they try to push you so most of your deals/trades to be online and "traceable" and do not encourage the use of paper banknotes anymore. You have a limit in withdrawing paper money. In Sweden for example they plan to remove the paper-notes at all, so no shady deals can be done using the Swedish krone without being questioned.

So really we do not know the real Supply/Demand situation, only what is seen on the exchanges. It's kind of a bottleneck if you relay only on the exchanges. We can check the transaction in the blocks to determine approximate movements but this is not exact as people move funds from one wallet to another + soon the LN will move part of the flow off the chain.

As we have seen in the past, some exchange scam schemes can really affect the price, why? As the bitcoin itself is secure enough we based the price on the perception of security on the 3rd parties as they are the weakest link.
I still think that the bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized and the same thing with the forming of the price, that's the only way to the wide acceptance and world financial dominance.


 

bitmover
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August 16, 2018, 11:04:54 AM
 #47

The price of everything in the world is speculative. That's the way free market works, bitcoin can be no different.
It depends on the sentiment about the future of that asset, or object, whatever.

I will make some examples
Few months ago there was a truckers strike in Brazil. They blocked refineries, so no gas could reach gas stations.
There were plenty of gas in the gas stations, but there was a sentiment that it could become scarse.

So everyone went to gas stations and tried to buy gas. The price wnet about 40% up, until the government decided to intervene and prohibited more raises in t he Price

Then people thought"if there is no gas, soon there will be no food"

So all good price went about 30-50% up as well.

There was plenty food and gas. There was no shortage. However, the sentiment was that those items could become scarse, so the price went up.

It's the same thing with bitcoin.
The sentiment that China is going to prohibit it, or that the ETF will never be approved, those things affect the price globally, because it is a global asset.

And if you decide to sell 1/2 the market price P2P, I will buy from you and sell on coinbase until all your bitcoin is gone...


Take a look at Turkey fiat currency now.
They have a crazy president who wants to implement an heterodox economy plan.

The country economy is the same today as 20 days ago. However the sentiment is that it will collapse soon, so their fiat currency is about 40% down (don't know exactly).

However if Turkey president (or dictator whatever, I don't know exactly his case) says on TV "I gave up may stupid plan" Turkey fiat will immediately recover, at least a few %. That's purely speculative, based on the sentiment about the future.

That's how everything price is calculated. Freely.

The only way to change this is through coercion (like government intervention)

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August 16, 2018, 11:46:41 AM
 #48

You have a very valid point there, but is the cost of the electricity being used to mine it, the only method to do that? Let's say for one moment that we use that as a measure of cost, would it not give governments a tool to manipulate the price too?

In my country the electricity cost is determined by a government organization and then pushed to the local municipality and they will then add their cost onto that base price. Which price will you then use as the base price? The price that the end user pay or the base price provided by the government?

I would rather live with the price being calculated as a average of several independent global exchanges, than having a price being calculated by some corrupt governments electricity cost.  Roll Eyes   

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August 24, 2018, 07:20:51 AM
 #49

That’s good article. Bitcoin price is centralized that’s have some advantages and disadvantages. To decentralized bitcoin price we can face many complication I hope.
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