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Author Topic: calculation made 40days ago:now is the lowest BTC/$ rate - by comparing to gold  (Read 808 times)
eyal
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October 17, 2011, 11:00:53 PM
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now lets see what happens
There are some key point that can be defined in the timeline of Gold and Bitcoin:
1. First Rally Start: When was a Free (no pre-set price) Exchange Market established. For this purpose, I assume that Exchange Markets are "established" when there is a general awareness to the existence of the Exchange, and there is a method for the public to exchange the currency for USD with no preset price. ('71 for gold, ending the gold standard thus making gold an independent decentralized currency, and 16-Apr-11 for Bitcoin ,using the first mainstream coverage in TIME magazine as the date from which awareness to bitcoin existed, needless to say that it did not make Bitcoin nearly as famous as Gold in '71, but the word spreads fast these days)
2. First Peak: The high-point which initialized the government intervention, which is followed by a long decline (Jan'80 for gold, and Jun'11 for bitcoin)
3. Second Rally Start :Balance of powers between Market Forces and Government intervention shifts (Apr 2001 for Gold, TBD for Bitcoin)
4. New Record Price: Market Price Exceed last peak and continue to skyrocket with no real resistance (Jan 2009 for Gold, TBD for Bitcoin)

I've attempted to calculate the Bitcoin future based on Gold's past using simple rationing. These are the results:

The Ratio between the progress rate of the events is ~1:60, meaning that market events occur 60x faster today compared to '71.

The model predicts that Bitcoin price would starts its rally around 15-Oct-2011 (As the World's Economic Collapse would likely gain even more momentum), from a price of around $8 (Assuming a similar 70% drop - which is what happened to Gold prices ''80-'01). At that point, the balance of power will shift from the Government intervention to Bitcoin Exchange Market forces at that point, and the price would begin an exponential upward trend.

The model predicts that around 2-Dec-2011 - Bitcoin will return to it's peak price of ~30$ and would continue it's exponential upward trend with no real resistance.

Calculation: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnHPNP-GDn7adDBxM2FuRlVZTmhQTlVSaUZtM05MSnc&hl=en_US

http://Http://openbitcoin.biz - Open Bitcoin Business - an OSS based service, where the contributors can be paid!
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October 17, 2011, 11:07:44 PM
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