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Author Topic: Trading In the Bear | Checkout Whats Good & Bad |  (Read 139 times)
dothebeats
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August 15, 2018, 12:59:49 PM
 #21

What most people don't realize is that it's still possible to profit even in the worst market conditions, and sometimes that means you have to go nuts and do shorting. While in itself, shorting is a bad idea because the market can always bounce back, still it's a great shot on grabbing opportunities in a hopeless market. No one needs to wait for the moon always as every day offers new opportunity in trading. 1-10% of profits is already sufficient to get you going and keep the profits rolling. Nice insight on what really happened within the past lows and highs, OP. One should really educate what else can people do in order to get profits even in rainy days.

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August 15, 2018, 01:45:50 PM
 #22

Year 2018, its been rough year until now starting from the first day. When December 2017 hike came into effect then everyone thought that next year bitcoin and most of the Top altcoins will spike themselves by doubling themselves in volume. With that thought in mind most of the people invested heavily at wrong time.

That was the initial event when 2018 started. We surged through mega dump in the period January to February by dropping ourself to 16,000 USD and then 10,000 USD all the way down to 30-40% from ATH of December.

Traders Who Invested in December :

These people suffered a lot due to this kind of drop. They already went down by 40% from initial investment and there is no way they are going to recover that investment until the time they see 16K plus prices. But according to what I read over the forum most of the people with hard truth sold their coins already in the bear and incurred with huge losses ranging from 20-40%.

Learning : This event taught us that whenever the market goes many folds high then its the worst time to invest. Do not think that if the market has hiked itself heavily means it has become stronger and it will grow even further. No, that is the worst outcome you can predict from that. So whenever the crypto currency is in bull run ( ~ 20% + high from initial value) then its not the time to enter the market but to halt your trading operations.


Traders Who Invested in February to May :

These were the traders who had the excited state after the ATH's. They made investment whenever the price dropped below 10K USD during this period. We had 4-6 such occurrences when the BTC price moved from 10K to 8K USD and it was the exact time when you will see heavy rush in the market and more 24 hours volume than any other period. However this was too soon to predict that the BTC might go boom at anytime after tomorrow, then after day after tomorrow but nothing like that happened and BTC dropped even further to lowest of 2018 that is 6K USD by April midway. People took further shot of investing at this period and then this pumped the market to 8K USD by the end of May. They had great time with this peak because most of them got the profits as they invested during the trough and sold at crest. Perfect trade! But not the best one.  

Learning: Investment should not be done in excitement because it may result in some sort of loss which could be unprecedented. In this group not all the people got benefited because many of the bought the coins at 10K USD which was still the highest point until the May. However there were people who bought the bitcoin by looking at the bottom price of BTC which was around 6K USD. Nonetheless they made great profits after BTC started its wave off the trough reaching 8 to 10K USD. So the second group here analysed the situation by somewhat studying the bottom price and made the profits.


Traders Who Invested in May to August :

These are the group of investors who have already understood that this year is not so good for bitcoin and it is all surrounded with the Bearish Trend of bitcoin and even other coins indeed. This taught good lesson and people have now created strategy of buying bitcoin by investing only when they see the bottom rates. Sometimes it is hard to see the bottom rate but with the current years movement it is finalised that bitcoin will never go down to 5.5-6K USD looking at the current trade volume of bitcoin. This group will benefit the most in this year because they are probably holding their coins, they know very well 8, 10K USD is nothing but illusion and what they need to do is, to wait and see BTC moving above 10K USD to have proper sell of from the bear trend.

Leanring : The best thing to do is, research your "trade trend". After looking at 8 months of data one can surely state that we are not going off the bearish trend so easily and thus it might get difficult to get profits in such time. So the best way to keep buying at the troughs and whenever you see the bottom price. DONT rush the bitcoin selling whenever you see little green spikes, that would be mad decision to take because you are still selling in the Bear trend and not profiting with great % share.

Bear Fear

For those who are not capable of having control over their investment can do one easy stuff : They can go for the short term trading along with the swing mode.  Though we are in the bear mode then also crypto currencies keep fluctuating within that bear wave by 5-10% on a day or two basis. It can be done with careful selection of coins with such volatility and still have profits being in the bear. With the time you may think that Bear is nothing and just nausea which can be overcome very easily.



My Conclusion from 2018 "Trade Trend"

I was very much disappointed when I first saw the dumpsters in crypto currencies as my investment in versatile coins was going down very crazy. But over the period I did notice these troughs and crest and cant tell you how important they are while investing into the crypto. Whenever I see wide open graph of BTC or any currency then we can clearly see that from January to August every coin has made a wavy pattern with long troughs and crest and then you realise that you could have bought at lowest rates and that too many times and could have sold at high rates many more times. This way profiting yourself multiple times and by re-inevstign your profits.



Key Notes :

1) There is still great possibility that this trend will continue.
2) There is NO POINT in asking when moon will come, because you can still gain profits whether its bear or bull.
3) Bearish trend is just your fear, it doesnt matter for how long it will stay.
4) Try to look at the smaller picture rather than bigger one, because no one knows the future trends.
5) You don't really need TA and other analysts to let you know whats coming, because you can predict whats the trough and when is the crest to buy and sell.

Yes, I do agree with this statement, but we can still trade on the bear if we can spot a good trade and entry point. And also this is a good thing to start buying coins while it is so cheap.

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August 15, 2018, 05:33:53 PM
 #23

I really enjoyed reading your write up OP and it is up close to the real situation in the market right now. Its been so many months we are seeing the up and downs of the market but no one has thought of the situation in the way you have represented it here. The structural representation clears up the thing very closely where we know that who benefited a lot and who lost more than that! With such scenarios one should come to know that bitcoin has cyclic behaviours which can not be changed by technical ways and thus it all happens naturally. If there are such changes all the time then why not use them for the purpose of making profits. The simple strategy guys, buy low and sell high, it is what it is!

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August 15, 2018, 05:49:52 PM
 #24

Everything had up's and down.Even the profit from business.Likewise ,the price of cryptocurrency is fluctuates to some dip.Since the trading is related to digital currency,their may be variation in the price.
It's better to use the chance to inverse in the potential coins.If you like to get some profits at all the pump and dump.You have to buy at low price and sell at high price.

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August 15, 2018, 06:01:57 PM
 #25

We can understand that the prices right now are still higher than 3 years ago so it is there a Strand for us but it is not that for them who lived 3 years ago, it would be satisfied with the prices that we are having right now.

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August 15, 2018, 08:00:41 PM
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 #26

I have tried trading to no avail, not everybody has time to monitor markets 24/7 and I can't be bothered with bots. I may be at a paper loss, but I feel I have strong enough positions in the long term, using these periods to accumulate and average down.

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August 16, 2018, 05:29:19 AM
 #27

I think bearish trend will continue until 2019, bitcoin will never break $10.000 this year. Hodling makes me broke  Smiley
Did you read the conclusion of the post? They say that bear trend is nothing but only your fear to invest or sell and make money in the market. Irrespective to the bearish market, you can still invest or gain.

Plus I believe the price of Bitcoin will cross the $10000 value in the market till the end of the year and the start of New Year might accelerate the growth in the value further. The technology is incredible and it should not be called or considered a failed market just because the prices are down.

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pawanjain
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August 16, 2018, 06:16:19 AM
 #28

Good analysis and well explained on the thread. I believe the same that a trader can make money in any time irrespective of the trend. I had noticed the short gain opportunities when BTC reached $8k recently and thought of investing the price goes low. I am now eagerly waiting for BTC to hit another bottom so that I could buy more at the bottom and make money on the short gains. Although the price is good enough now to buy but let me just wait if BTC can go more low. I am happy on both the sides which is the best feeling  Grin














 

 

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omfg.xekcep
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August 16, 2018, 09:47:28 PM
 #29

I even have not an assumption when bitcoin will be returned nearby to the historical peak. Bitcoin has being falling since the beginning of 2018 year and actually bitcoin is still in the downtrend. I have devoted this year on learning about crypto technologies, crypto currencies and I can say with full confidence that crypto technologies are really very useful therefore crypto technologies really have nice future. I do not lie and pretend I am an investor and I am holding crypto assets myself (ethereum and bitcoin). As you mentioned earlier that most part of investors lost enough money. By the way I have lost as well but I have decided not to sell my coins because I really hope that I will earn money by holding them

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August 16, 2018, 10:07:08 PM
 #30

I have tried trading to no avail, not everybody has time to monitor markets 24/7 and I can't be bothered with bots.
That's not really an excuse. It's quite easy to open a short position at BitMEX and just have the downtrend work for you. It doesn't cost any time or effort, just leave it open and check back once a week or so.

If you use a low leverage count your liquidation price is pretty much well out of the easy to access market range. Ignore all the people saying low leverage counts are for pussies, these people are big mouths and gamblers.

I may be at a paper loss, but I feel I have strong enough positions in the long term, using these periods to accumulate and average down.
That's the best way to move forward. People don't realize how much of an opportunity it is to use current levels to significantly lower your initial buying price. Lower average price means quicker profits on the way up. Smiley

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August 16, 2018, 10:12:10 PM
 #31

5) You don't really need TA...

I agree and I will add a few more things, when people want to buy bitcoin or any altcoin, they should have notion that in order to have profits they will need patience and that they must hold for at least 2 years. this is volatile market and if the person this is for quick profits so the person is making a serious mistake because he will lose money. We have to encourage people to use bitcoin as a means of payments and advise them that this is a long-term investment, and see that the rich guys who invested millions are not crying on social networks because they are at a losses because they invested in the long term

If you like to get some profits at all the pump and dump.You have to buy at low price and sell at high price.

this is the problem, people have this pessimistic thinking. Now that we are waiting for the SEC decision, people will buy bitcoin and if the SEC does not approve an ETF people will sell their bitcoins.


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August 16, 2018, 11:49:47 PM
 #32

Year 2018, its been rough year until now starting from the first day. When December 2017 hike came into effect then everyone thought that next year bitcoin and most of the Top altcoins will spike themselves by doubling themselves in volume. With that thought in mind most of the people invested heavily at wrong time.

That was the initial event when 2018 started. We surged through mega dump in the period January to February by dropping ourself to 16,000 USD and then 10,000 USD all the way down to 30-40% from ATH of December.

Traders Who Invested in December :

These people suffered a lot due to this kind of drop. They already went down by 40% from initial investment and there is no way they are going to recover that investment until the time they see 16K plus prices. But according to what I read over the forum most of the people with hard truth sold their coins already in the bear and incurred with huge losses ranging from 20-40%.

Learning : This event taught us that whenever the market goes many folds high then its the worst time to invest. Do not think that if the market has hiked itself heavily means it has become stronger and it will grow even further. No, that is the worst outcome you can predict from that. So whenever the crypto currency is in bull run ( ~ 20% + high from initial value) then its not the time to enter the market but to halt your trading operations.


Traders Who Invested in February to May :

These were the traders who had the excited state after the ATH's. They made investment whenever the price dropped below 10K USD during this period. We had 4-6 such occurrences when the BTC price moved from 10K to 8K USD and it was the exact time when you will see heavy rush in the market and more 24 hours volume than any other period. However this was too soon to predict that the BTC might go boom at anytime after tomorrow, then after day after tomorrow but nothing like that happened and BTC dropped even further to lowest of 2018 that is 6K USD by April midway. People took further shot of investing at this period and then this pumped the market to 8K USD by the end of May. They had great time with this peak because most of them got the profits as they invested during the trough and sold at crest. Perfect trade! But not the best one.  

Learning: Investment should not be done in excitement because it may result in some sort of loss which could be unprecedented. In this group not all the people got benefited because many of the bought the coins at 10K USD which was still the highest point until the May. However there were people who bought the bitcoin by looking at the bottom price of BTC which was around 6K USD. Nonetheless they made great profits after BTC started its wave off the trough reaching 8 to 10K USD. So the second group here analysed the situation by somewhat studying the bottom price and made the profits.


Traders Who Invested in May to August :

These are the group of investors who have already understood that this year is not so good for bitcoin and it is all surrounded with the Bearish Trend of bitcoin and even other coins indeed. This taught good lesson and people have now created strategy of buying bitcoin by investing only when they see the bottom rates. Sometimes it is hard to see the bottom rate but with the current years movement it is finalised that bitcoin will never go down to 5.5-6K USD looking at the current trade volume of bitcoin. This group will benefit the most in this year because they are probably holding their coins, they know very well 8, 10K USD is nothing but illusion and what they need to do is, to wait and see BTC moving above 10K USD to have proper sell of from the bear trend.

Leanring : The best thing to do is, research your "trade trend". After looking at 8 months of data one can surely state that we are not going off the bearish trend so easily and thus it might get difficult to get profits in such time. So the best way to keep buying at the troughs and whenever you see the bottom price. DONT rush the bitcoin selling whenever you see little green spikes, that would be mad decision to take because you are still selling in the Bear trend and not profiting with great % share.

Bear Fear

For those who are not capable of having control over their investment can do one easy stuff : They can go for the short term trading along with the swing mode.  Though we are in the bear mode then also crypto currencies keep fluctuating within that bear wave by 5-10% on a day or two basis. It can be done with careful selection of coins with such volatility and still have profits being in the bear. With the time you may think that Bear is nothing and just nausea which can be overcome very easily.



My Conclusion from 2018 "Trade Trend"

I was very much disappointed when I first saw the dumpsters in crypto currencies as my investment in versatile coins was going down very crazy. But over the period I did notice these troughs and crest and cant tell you how important they are while investing into the crypto. Whenever I see wide open graph of BTC or any currency then we can clearly see that from January to August every coin has made a wavy pattern with long troughs and crest and then you realise that you could have bought at lowest rates and that too many times and could have sold at high rates many more times. This way profiting yourself multiple times and by re-inevstign your profits.



Key Notes :

1) There is still great possibility that this trend will continue.
2) There is NO POINT in asking when moon will come, because you can still gain profits whether its bear or bull.
3) Bearish trend is just your fear, it doesnt matter for how long it will stay.
4) Try to look at the smaller picture rather than bigger one, because no one knows the future trends.
5) You don't really need TA and other analysts to let you know whats coming, because you can predict whats the trough and when is the crest to buy and sell.
I believe that trading in the bear market is very difficult and the liquidity is very low, you can see that bitcoin and altcoin prices are constantly falling, the market is bearish in the long run, so to To minimize risk, I believe you should have a specific plan before the transaction. At present, the market capitalization is only $ 200 billion so I think the bitcoin price will continue to fall in the near future.

CryptoGuro1
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August 18, 2018, 06:12:11 PM
 #33

I have tried trading to no avail, not everybody has time to monitor markets 24/7 and I can't be bothered with bots.
That's not really an excuse. It's quite easy to open a short position at BitMEX and just have the downtrend work for you. It doesn't cost any time or effort, just leave it open and check back once a week or so.

If you use a low leverage count your liquidation price is pretty much well out of the easy to access market range. Ignore all the people saying low leverage counts are for pussies, these people are big mouths and gamblers.

I may be at a paper loss, but I feel I have strong enough positions in the long term, using these periods to accumulate and average down.
That's the best way to move forward. People don't realize how much of an opportunity it is to use current levels to significantly lower your initial buying price. Lower average price means quicker profits on the way up. Smiley

I understand, but I feel inadequately equipped to trade in this market. If you asked me 6 months ago I would of told you that all of the TA in the world cannot tell you whether we go up or down. Now I am in a very good group where I am slowly learning how to use some elements of TA to map out potential trades, however, I still feel market sentiment drives all directions. I feel, this market is purely driven by speculation and I feel that the only thing which could work for me is using fundamental analysis to some extent. On the other side of things, I am only interested in this space, by purely the technology behind it, I feel that if one invests and averages down positions in this amazing accumulation zone, then we will see our amazing returns in years from now. However, the biggest problem is splitting the crap coins from the truely great projects. btw thanks for the merit.

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